High Speed Rail Affirmative


AT No Ridership/Amtrak Fails



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AT No Ridership/Amtrak Fails

Conventional trains cannot be compared to autos and airliners – because they haven’t been provided with the in means of competitive success


American Public Transportation Association, ’12 – non-profit that advocates for the advancement of public transportation programs in the U.S. ( “An Inventory of the Criticisms of High-Speed Rail: with Suggested Responses and Counterpoints,” January 2012, p. 20, http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/HSR-Defense.pdf) // SP
Second, passenger trains require federal infrastructure investment in a modern right of way and a modern command-and-control technology just as cars and airplanes do. Until the federal government funds a meaningful, modern and relevant system of passenger-train tracks, signals, and stations, no comparison between passengers trains and cars or airliners is valid. To be competitive, trains must first be provided with the means of competitive success, as cars and airplanes were. And as shoe factories are.

Oil spikes are inevitable and will lead to a growing competitive advantage for HSR


Perl, ’10 – Director of Urban Studies Program at Simon Fraser University (Anthony, “Integrating HSR into North America’s Next Mobility Transition,” June 16, 2010, p. 16, http://wagner.nyu.edu/rudincenter/publications/RCWP_Perl.pdf) // SP
The effects of this price change will be uneven along at least two dimensions. First, the shift from producing conventional to unconventional oil will not proceed in a linear fashion. There will be price ‘spikes’, either because large investments need to be raised for this new infrastructure ahead of production, or because the absence of such investment will mean production declines with the depletion of conventional sources. In either case, the effects of higher oil prices across different transport modes will be uneven. The more oil-intensive a mode of travel is, the more it will be affected by future oil production trends. In these circumstances, high speed and conventional trains that are powered by electricity will have a growing competitive advantage over driving and flying.

Public transportation is on the rise – disproves critics and bodes well for HSR


American Public Transportation Association, ’12 – non-profit that advocates for the advancement of public transportation programs in the U.S. ( “An Inventory of the Criticisms of High-Speed Rail: with Suggested Responses and Counterpoints,” January 2012, p. 12-13, http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/HSR-Defense.pdf) // SP
In its January 2011 Vital Signs Report, WMATA stated there were 217,219,000 Metrorail riders, 123,847,000 Metrobus riders, and 2,377,000 Metro Access riders on the system in 2010. Across the United States, the American Public Transportation Association reported in its fourth quarter “2010 Public Transportation Ridership Report” that there were 10.18 billion unlinked transit passenger trips in 2010 compared to nearly 10.26 billion in 2009, a slight decrease of 0.74 percent (possibly due to economic and weather conditions). For its part, Amtrak, in its 2009 Annual Report, noted that demand for passenger rail was strong. During FY 2009, Amtrak carried 27.2 million passengers—the second highest total in company history. While ridership in FY 2009 was down from the all-time record of 28.7 million in FY 2008, it was up 5 percent over FY 2007, continuing a long-term trend of rising ridership since FY 2002 when 21.6 million passengers rode Amtrak. On this basis, it’s pretty hard to argue with any credibility that the American public does not want, nor will they use public transportation. Judging from the latest statistics from the Texas Transportation Institute, Americans would like nothing more than to have transportation services available that will allow them to reclaim some of those 6 billion hours a year lost in highway and roadway congestion. According to a July 27, 2008 posting by Sarah Schlicter at Independenttravel.com, Amtrak ridership was up 11 percent since October 2007, and the company expected to see a record number of passengers in 2008 (see “High-Speed Rail: Obama’s Gift that Nobody Wants,” Washington Examiner Editorial, February 10, 2011, above).

HSR is nothing like Amtrak – California proves it will cost half the amount of new freeways and airports needed to meet travel demands


American Public Transportation Association, ’12 – non-profit that advocates for the advancement of public transportation programs in the U.S. ( “An Inventory of the Criticisms of High-Speed Rail: with Suggested Responses and Counterpoints,” January 2012, p. 11, http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/HSR-Defense.pdf) // SP
O’Toole argues that the time savings is not worth the cost of the present difference between Acela ($139) and Northeast Regional ($60) services between Washington and New York (a value judgment), especially compared to the cut-rate ($20) bus service or the $119 one-way flight (the price in June 2009)/one hour (no accounting for travel time to and from the airport or wait time in security lines). Mr. O’Toole apparently is attempting to extrapolate some kind of cost based on what he claims are Amtrak losses of $28 to $84 per passenger in most of its short-distance corridors and $84 per passenger in the state-subsidized corridors like North Carolina’s Raleigh-Charlotte corridor. It would be interesting to see what the comparable numbers would be for highway and aviation infrastructure cost overruns and operating loses. These figures and statements bear no resemblance to the 800-mile, largely green field high-speed rail project proposed by the California High-Speed Rail Authority. According to the California High- speed Rail Authority, its high- speed train system would lower the number of intercity automobile passengers on highways by up to 70 million annually. What’s more, it will cost less than half the amount of expanding freeways and airports to meet future intercity travel demand and would eliminate the need to construct 3000 lane miles of highways, 91 airport gates and five additional airport runways.

Oil prices are causing people to shift towards trains


Grbenik 12 ( Mara May 22 Journalist for Medill News Service http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/05/22/High-speed-rail-still-a-dream-in-US/UPI-19121337682600)
That patterns in transportation in general are shifting as the cost of fuel rises support that idea. More people are utilizing public options and Amtrak said it is on pace to set an annual ridership record in 2012. This is good, since bullet trains would require large numbers of riders and revenues to cover annual operating costs. However, moving too soon to build high-speed rail prematurely puts the projects at risk of financial instability and at the mercy of a continuous supply of government subsidies. This is what's happening in California. To accommodate growth on standard passenger rail, Amtrak is taking a "blended approach" to high-speed rail development, embracing it where it makes sense by deviating shared track in certain spots and installing new dedicated track in other locations, Amtrak spokesman Steve Kulm said.


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