High Speed Rail Affirmative
Oil Advantage Extensions Internal Links
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- Reducing dependence on foreign oil creates 4.5 jobs per each million dollars saved
- Hegemony
Oil Advantage ExtensionsInternal LinksEconomyRising oil prices threaten to derail economic recovery – oil affects every sector of the economyWSJ, 2/16 (2/16/12, "Oil Rise Imperils Budding Recovery", http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204792404577224932060341956.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection)//MP Rising oil prices are emerging once again as a threat to the U.S. economic recovery just as it appears to be gaining momentum. Oil prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks as mounting tension with Iran has raised the threat of a disruption in global supplies. On Wednesday, oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.06 to $101.80 a barrel on reports that Iran had cut off sales to six European countries in response to the European Union's newly stepped-up sanctions. Iran's oil ministry later denied the report. Pricier oil comes at a delicate time. The job market has begun showing signs of life, and other economic indicators are pointing toward stronger growth. But the recovery remains too halting to easily absorb the shock of sharply costlier oil. An oil spike would also complicate the job of the Federal Reserve. The central bank would have to balance any calls for more Fed action to stimulate the economy against rising inflation fears. Minutes of the Fed's last policy-setting meeting in January, released Wednesday, showed the central bank divided over whether to launch a new bond-buying program to support economic growth--but the bank kept the option open. In the past, the Fed has been willing to look past temporary spikes in inflation, but it isn't clear it would be willing to do so again. Higher crude prices are likely to translate into higher prices at the gas pump, where drivers already are paying more to fill up. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline has jumped 13.1 cents to $3.518 in the past month, according to auto club AAA. Some parts of the country have seen even bigger increases, with prices approaching $4 a gallon in parts of California. Financial markets fell Wednesday as rising oil prices and new uncertainty about the latest Greek bailout rattled investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its biggest drop of the new year, falling 97.33 points, or 0.8%, to 12780.95. Other major U.S. indexes also fell. Oil prices affect virtually every aspect of the U.S. economy. Higher prices at the pump force consumers to cut back spending on discretionary items like restaurant meals, haircuts and family vacations, hurting those industries. Manufacturers face lower profit margins as they pay more to get their products to market and face higher costs for plastics and other petroleum-based materials. A prolonged increase can drive up inflation and drive down hiring. "It has the power to derail an economic recovery that's not looking very strong already," said Paul Dales, an economist for research firm Capital Economics. Trying to maintain oil-based transport systems leads to a vicious cycle of high oil prices, recession, and modest recoveryMK: Gilbert,; Perl, 2010 (Richard Anthony. Transport Revolutions : Moving People and Freight Without Oil. New York, NY, USA: New Society Publishers,. p 239. http://site.ebrary.com/lib/umich/Doc?id=10397417&ppg=239 Copyright © 2010. New Society Publishers. All rights reserved.) Even before the dramatic events of 2008, noted in Chapter 3 and analyzed further in Chapter 6, there was a growing preoccupation with economic decline and societal collapse.1 This is an outcome of limits to the supply of oil that we strive to transcend. We also want to avoid the challenges of trying to sustain oil-based transport systems in an era of what we described in Chapter 4 as oil depletion, i.e., falling oil production. This effort could well result in a vicious cycle of high oil prices, economic recession, lower oil prices, modest economic recovery, and high oil prices again. In Chapter 6 we will suggest that such a cycle is what began in late 2007 and could well continue beyond 2009. JobsReducing dependence on foreign oil creates 4.5 jobs per each million dollars savedLitman 9, executive director of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute, (Todd, “ Smart Transportation Economic Stimulation: Infrastructure Investments That Support Economic Development”, Victoria Transport Policy Institute Journal, April 21, 2009, http://www.vtpi.org/econ_stim.pdf)//AG Americans consume about twice as much transportation energy per capita as peer countries due to differences in transportation policies, including planning practices and fuel prices. Dependency on imported petroleum is economically harmful. A US Department of Energy study estimated that excessive dependence on imported petroleum cost the U.S. economy $150-$250 billion in 2005, at a time when oil averaged $35-$45/bbl (Greene and Sanjana Ahmad, 2005). A U.S. Department of Energy study estimates the external costs of imported oil (described as "a measure of the quantifiable per-barrel economic costs that the U.S. could avoid by a small-to-moderate reduction in oil imports") to be $13.60 per barrel, with a range of $6.70 to $23.25 (Leiby, 2007). These estimates omit military costs. These costs are expected to increase in the future as international oil prices rise and as U.S. oil production declines. For this study we commissioned special analysis using the IMPLAN model, based on 2006 U.S. economic conditions (Lindall and Olson, 2005). Table 8 summarizes results. This indicates that in 2006, each million dollars shifted from fuel expenditures to a typical bundle of consumer goods adds 4.5 jobs to the U.S. economy (17.3-12.8), and each million shifted from general motor vehicle expenditures (purchase of vehicles, servicing, insurance, etc.) adds about 3.6 jobs (17.3-13.7). HegemonyReducing oil dependence would be the single greatest multiplier of U.S. power in the worldZakaria 5, host of CNN’s flagship international affairs program—Fareed Zakaria GPS, Editor at Large of TIME, a Washington Post columnist, and a New York Times bestselling author, (Fareed, “ Mile by Mile, Into the Oil Trap”, The Washington Post, August 23, 2005, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/22/AR2005082201114.html)//AG If I could change one thing about American foreign policy, what would it be? The answer is easy, but it's not something most of us think of as foreign policy. I would adopt a serious national program geared toward energy efficiency and independence. Reducing our dependence on oil would be the single greatest multiplier of American power in the world. I leave it to economists to sort out what expensive oil does to America's growth and inflation prospects. What is less often noticed is how crippling this situation is for American foreign policy. "Everything we're trying to do in the world is made much more difficult in the current environment of rising oil prices," says Michael Mandelbaum, author of "The Ideas That Conquered the World." Consider: · Terror ism . Over the past three decades, Islamic extremism and violence have been funded from two countries, Saudi Arabia and Iran, not coincidentally the world's first- and second-largest oil exporters. Both countries are now awash in money, and no matter what the controls, some of this cash is surely getting to unsavory groups and individuals. · Democracy. The centerpiece of President Bush's foreign policy -- encouraging democracy in the Middle East -- could easily lose steam in a world of high-priced oil. Governments reform when they have to. But many Middle Eastern governments are likely to have easy access to huge surpluses for years, making it easier for them to avoid change. Saudi Arabia will probably have a budget surplus of more than $26 billion this year because the price of oil is so much higher than anticipated. That means it can keep the old ways going, bribing the Wahhabi imams, funding the army and National Guard, spending freely on patronage programs. (And that would still leave plenty to fund dozens of new palaces and yachts.) Ditto for other corrupt, quasi-feudal oil states. 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