The 25.0 percent increase in the procurement price of wheat in November 1999 (see Box II.2) induced farmers to make a concerted effort to use existing land more efficiently, and to cultivate wheat on additional tracts of land; area under wheat cultivation increased by 2.8 percent to 8.5 million hectares in FY00. Improved availability of water due to up gradation of watercourses under the supervision of military personnel coupled with good weather, contributed to an improvement in yield per hectare of wheat by 14.9 percent (to 2,493 kilograms per hectare) in FY00. The subsidized tractor purchase scheme (launched by the previous government in FY99) along with easier credit availability, led to higher mechanized cultivation and improved productivity. In response to rising wholesale prices and the 5.3 to 6.1 percent increase in support prices for a range of paddy varieties in FY00, farmers also took a keen interest in the cultivation of rice; over the last five years, there has been an average increase of 14.0 and 12.9 percent per annum in the wholesale price of basmati and irri varieties of rice.
Box II.2: On-time and Effective Revision in Procurement Price of Wheat
A timely increase in the procurement price of wheat by 25 percent emerged as the major factor contributing towards the 18.1 percent increase in the production of wheat during FY00. It has been observed that an increase in the procurement price at sowing time (mid-October to end-December) proves successful in increasing production, while a delayed increase in price is futile in increasing production that year although it does increase production next year.
Post sowing increases in procurement price made in March 1994, 1996 and April 1997, could not increase production for those years. However, increases in production were recorded in the years following the increase (see attached table). It has also been observed that whenever production has responded to an increase in support price, the rise has come from an increased per hectare yield, with a marginal increase in area under cultivation. This leads to the conclusion that there is potential for intensive cultivation, but this needs to be qualified by two factors: |
(% Change)
|
Year
|
Production
|
Crop Area
|
Yield
|
FY92
|
7.7
|
-0.4
|
8.1
|
FY93
|
3.0
|
5.4
|
-2.2
|
Price increased by 23.1% by March, 1994
|
FY94
|
-5.8
|
-3.2
|
-2.7
|
FY95
|
11.8
|
1.7
|
9.9
|
Price increased by 8.1% by March, 1996
|
FY96
|
-0.6
|
2.5
|
-3.0
|
Price increased by 38.7% by April, 1997
|
FY97
|
-1.5
|
-3.2
|
1.7
|
FY98
|
12.3
|
3.0
|
9.0
|
FY99
|
-4.5
|
-1.5
|
-3.0
| Price increased by 25% on 23rd November, 1999 |
FY00
|
18.1
|
2.8
|
14.9
|
Sources: i) Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan FY99;
ii) MINFAL
|
An increase in support price remains attractive for a shorter time, which make it unfeasible for farmers to go for extensive cultivation; the development of new lands is an expensive and time consuming process, and
Substitutability of land among crops is limited because of ecological constraints and inflexibility in farmers’ preferences for substitution.
|
A discouraging development is the fall in production of sugarcane (by 16.1 percent in FY00), following a 12.6 percent reduction in the area cultivated. This occurred against a backdrop of the conflict between sugarcane growers and mill owners over the timing of purchases and payment to farmers. The intentional delay in purchases (and payments) reduced the incentive of growers to increase (or even maintain) area under the crop in FY00. Furthermore, the support price of sugarcane has remained unchanged since FY98. It may be noted, that the 46.4 percent increase in support price of sugarcane in FY98, spurred domestic production by 26.4 percent.
Minor Crops
Production of minor crops increased by 2.7 percent during FY00, compared with a rise of 4.3 percent last year. Onion and potato production posted increases of 42.5 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, while chilies declined by 15.3 percent. Weak growth in minor crops reduced the share of this sub-sector in total agriculture to 18.3 percent, from 19.1 percent in FY99.
Livestock
As the second largest value addition to agriculture after major crops, livestock posted a growth rate of only 2.8 percent during FY00, compared to 3.2 percent last year. This sub-sector consists of cattle, buffalo, sheep, and by-products such as dairy food, white and red
Table II.3 Selected Livestock Population and Products
|
|
Million Numbers
|
%
Change
|
|
Thousand Tonnes
|
%
Change
|
Species
|
FY99
|
FY00
|
Product
|
FY99
|
FY00
|
Cattle
|
21.6
|
22.0
|
1.9
|
Milk*
|
24.9
|
25.6
|
2.7
|
Buffalo
|
22.0
|
22.7
|
2.9
|
Beef
|
963.0
|
986.0
|
2.4
|
Sheep
|
23.9
|
24.1
|
0.6
|
Mutton
|
633.0
|
649.0
|
2.5
|
Goat
|
45.8
|
47.4
|
3.6
|
Poultry meat
|
310.0
|
322.0
|
3.9
|
Poultry
|
270.0
|
281.0
|
4.1
|
Eggs**
|
8261.0
|
8463.0
|
2.5
|
* = In million tonnes; ** = In million numbers
|
Source: Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock
|
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