Impact turns + answers – bfhmrs russia War Good

2ac – !/t – europe/navy

A Sino-Russian alliance causes conflict with Europe

Implications for Europe Since the strategic alignment scenario is seen as the most likely, its implications for Europe are discussed at relatively greater length than the other scenarios. The first implication is that a stable and enduring 45 Gilbert Rozman, The Sino-Russian Challenge to the World Order: National Identities, Bilateral Relations, and Sino-Russian relationship would allow both China and Russia to focus their resources and time on more pressing security issues elsewhere. For China, this would be on maritime issues in the East China Sea and South China, and on Taiwan, while for Russia it would be in the post-Soviet sphere. The maintenance of a friendly and peaceful border region guarantees China and Russia a safe and sable “strategic rear”. In fact, it could be argued that Russia would not have been able to annex Crimea in 2014 if it had not established such friendly relations with China, and therefore did not need to concern itself with maintaining a strong military posture on the Sino-Russian border. Similar arguments can be made for China. China and Russia are likely to maintain this border posture, which enables both sides to continue to deter or push back against US policies in their respective regions – and for Russia to push back against Europe. Second, closer Sino-Russian military cooperation is likely to mean that naval exercises held in Europe in recent years will become a more frequent. In future, it is also possible that China and Russia will conduct joint exercises in the Barents Sea. For the time being, however, such exercises are more geopolitical signaling than an indication of military alliance formation. Even if security relations are developed further in the future, China has no interest in engaging in military conflict in Europe. For China, military exercises in Europe aim to give credence to China’s ambitions to become a global naval power, and are also spurred by domestic considerations. More importantly, China’s strategic interests lie in the Asia-Pacific region. China is not willing to be dragged into a military confrontation in Europe, especially on behalf on another state – even Russia. Nonetheless, as indicated above, security and military cooperation between China and Russia has the East versus West in the 2010s. Washington: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2014. © 2019 The Swedish Institute of International Affairs 40 reached a solid and comprehensive level. Should there be a major deterioration in relations between China and the USA, or the USA and Russia, the possibility of an alliance cannot be completely ruled out.