Stratfor 19, 5-16-2019, premier digital publication, for objective geopolitical intelligence and analyses that reveal the underlying significance and future implications of emerging world events. "Russia, Iran: Anticipating Moscow's Next Move Amid Heightened U.S. Pressure," https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-iran-anticipating-russias-next-move-amid-heightened-us-pressure-nuclear-deal
Russia has been in diplomatic overdriveover the past two weeks following Iran's announcement that it was suspending some of its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Shortly after Tehran's JCPOA announcement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, during which Lavrov criticized the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Then following a May 14 meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the Russian city of Sochi, Lavrov expressed Russia's desire to keep the uptick in U.S.-Iranian tensions from escalating to a military conflict, but warned that such an outcome remained a possibility due to hard-line U.S. policiestoward Iran. The Big Picture As tensions intensify over Iran's nuclear development, Russia could become an increasingly important player in helping stave off U.S. pressure on Tehran. Moscow will seize the opportunity to gain leverage in its own standoff with Washington by increasing support to Iran — though the extent to which it will be able to do so will be limited by Russia's own complex relations with the Middle Eastern country. What It Could Mean Lavrov's recent statements, combined with Russia's varying strategic intentions with Iran and the United States, portend that Moscow will try to use Washington's heightened concern with Tehran to push for concessions from the United States in other areas, such as sanctions, Ukraine and arms control. In doing so, Moscow could strategically increase its support for Iran in the coming weeks in an effort to gain more leverage for use against Washington in negotiations. Such actions to watch for include: Increased nuclear support (e.g., developing reactors or shipping JCPOA-banned uranium to Iran). Increased economic support (e.g., setting up oil smuggling networks or other actions aimed at circumventing current U.S. sanctions). Increased diplomatic support (e.g., voting against U.N. initiatives backed by the United States). Increased security support (e.g., sending Russian personnel, missiles and other weaponry to sensitive nuclear and military sites to complicate U.S. military strategies).
