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START GOOD: GENERICSTART FAILURE GUARANTEES EXTINCTION -- this is the fastest and most likely scenario HALLAM 9. [John, Editor of Nuclear Flashpoints, John Burroughs and Marcy Fowler, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy, NPT Preparatory Committee, Steps Toward a Safer World -- APRIL 27] Why did an article in the September 2008 edition of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, entitled 'avoiding human extinction' give a list of measures needed to avoid that, with lowering the operating status of nuclear weapon systems (along with their elimination) topping the rather consequential 'to - do' list, even before climate - change measures and incoming large asteroids? Why over the years has this issue been thought so important at such a high level? The US and Russia undeniably keep a large number (estimated by Blair at 2,654 by Kristensen more recently 2,300) of nuclear warheads (both land - based ICBMs and SLBMs) in a status in which they can be launched at roughly 2 minutes or less notice. This fact is never seriously disputed. The core of the issue is that standard operating procedures envisage extremely short decision making timeframes, and these are imposed by the simple fact of having some missiles on quick - launch status. Careful and measured decision-making in such a situation is simply not possible. Yet the consequences of such decisions are truly apocalyptic. Recent research by US scientists (Toon and Robock 2008/9) on the effects of the use of US and Russian arsenals indicates that even at levels down to 1000 warheads, the use by malice, madness, miscalculation or malfunction of the 'on alert' portions of US and Russian strategic nuclear forces would be essentially terminal for civilization. Maintaining arsenals in an unstable configuration was insanely risky during the Cold War, when there were even larger numbers of warheads on alert and when there were just too many occasions on which it would be fair to say that the world came just too close to ending. There is even less reason, now that the cold - war confrontation has supposedly ended, to maintain nuclear forces in these dangerous configurations. Yet in spite of denials and obfuscations from those who wish to maintain existing postures they are indeed so maintained. President Obama, in his election manifesto, promised to negotiate with Russia to lower the operational status of nuclear weapon systems. It is vital that this promise is not forgotten. The talks between the US and Russia on the successor to the START Treaty are an ideal opportunity to take action to implement Obama's promises to negotiate with Russia to achieve lower operational status of nuclear weapon systems. START GOOD: ISRAEL STRIKESSTART prevents an Israeli preemptive strike on Iran RIA Novosti, Sept 22 2009, “Can Medvedev help Obama?,” lexis U.S. President Barack Obama is facing "a perfect storm of a week amid foreign policy challenges," which includes a meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on September 23 and chairing a special UN Security Council session on non-proliferation and disarmament. Its goal is to exchange more radical disarmament by nuclear powers in return for wider global efforts to prevent further proliferation. It is logical that the Russian and the American presidents will meet ahead of the General Assembly session on nuclear weapons to discuss progress in the drafting of a new bilateral strategic arms reduction treaty. The previous treaty will expire on December 5, 2009. If Moscow and Washington agree to cut their nuclear weapons to 1,500-1,675 charges and 500 delivery vehicles, as Russia has proposed, it will set a very good example for other nuclear and threshold countries. Their ability to agree on this sensitive issue may influence the attitudes of India, Pakistan, Iran, South Korea and Israel to the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty. It may also discourage Israel from delivering a preemptive strike at Iran, and Arab countries from acquiring nuclear weapons. In short, it is a complex foreign policy formula with a large number of variables. To put it bluntly, the next week will determine the world's choice between making progress and marking time (or worse still, rolling back) in the sphere of non-proliferation and disarmament. It will definitely determine the future of Russian-American relations, which may become healthier during Obama's presidency than they have been in the past 20 years. Extinction Ivashov 2007 (General Leonid, vice-president of the Academy on geopolitical affairs. He was the chief of the department for General affairs in the Soviet Union’s ministry of Defense, secretary of the Council of defense ministers of the Community of independant states (CIS), chief of the Military cooperation department at the Russian federation’s Ministry of defense and Joint chief of staff of the Russian armies, Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5309) What might cause the force major event of the required scale? Everything seems to indicate that Israel will be sacrificed. Its involvement in a war with Iran - especially in a nuclear war - is bound to trigger a global catastrophe. The statehoods of Israel and Iran are based on the countries' official religions. A military conflict between Israel and Iran will immediately evolve into a religious one, a conflict between Judaism and Islam. Due to the presence of numerous Jewish and Muslim populations in the developed countries, this would make a global bloodbath inevitable. All of the active forces of most of the countries of the world would end up fighting, with almost no room for neutrality left. Judging by the increasingly massive acquisitions of the residential housing for the Israeli citizens, especially in Russia and Ukraine, a lot of people already have an idea of what the future holds. However, it is hard to imagine a quiet heaven where one might hide from the coming doom. Forecasts of the territorial distribution of the fighting, the quantities and the efficiency of the armaments involved, the profound character of the underlying roots of the conflict and the severity of the religious strife all leave no doubt that this clash will be in all respects much more nightmarish than WWII. 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