1ac heg Advantage Scenario 1 is Leadership



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AT: US-China Coop Now



Space is the only exception

Dolman 10- Everett Dolman, PhD and Professor of Comparative Military Studies at the US Air Force's School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, September 2010, “The Case for Weapons in Space: A Geopolitical Assessment” APSA Annual Meeting, pg 2-3

On the surface, it may seem as though geopolitical forces are currently in dynamic balance. The US is the overwhelming sea and air power, offensively oriented and favoring maneuver and precision strike for advantage in war. The PRC is potentially the greatest land power the world has ever known, defensively established and reliant on masses of infantry as its core strength. Neither has a globally significant advantage vis-a-vis the other. There is no plausible near-term scenario in which the US could invade and sustain an occupation of the Chinese mainland. Likewise, the US is currently impervious to any invasion and occupation by Chinese forces. Neither state's sovereignty appears in doubt due to actions by the other. At the level of grand strategy neither mass or maneuver, offense or defense, has a transformational advantage. From this perspective, war, inevitable though it may be, is not imminent. Less venerable theories of conflict and cooperation are more favorable toward long-term peace. Economically, the US and PRC are tightly bound. Chinese markets are opening and the productivity of PRC manufacturing has allowed the US to move into a post-industrial economy. Trade is increasing substantially, and much of America's foreign debt is held by China, to the point that it is not to either state's fiscal advantage to engage in a conflict that will sever or (even just weaken) these ties. Culturally and historically, the Chinese and American people are inclined toward mutual admiration and respect. Despite the political differences between Chinese Communism and Western Liberal Democratic Capitalism, human connections and government rapprochement are valued by both sides. An appreciation of American technological innovation and Chinese work and spiritual ethics imbues the still-developing relationship. Both sides seem willing to work together and sustain a world system in which each nation-state has its place and its independence. In every sphere but one, it seems, the two great powers are building toward peace. In every sphere of competition, with one exception, there is room for negotiation and mutually beneficial outcomes. That one incompatible, uncompromising realm is outer space.

Space Challengers: Russia


Russia is challenging the US- tech, BMD, sphere of influence
Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis 9 – Chaired by Dr. Robert L Pfaltzgraffi Jr., Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies, and Dr. William R. Van Cleave Professor Emeritus at Department of Defense and Strategic Studies Missouri State University, 2009, “Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century” Independent Working Group, online: www.ifpa.org/pdf/IWG2009.pdf

The United States faces a global security setting characterized by accelerating proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them. New actors are acquiring technologies ranging from individual components to complete systems resulting in such capabilities. Although Russia does not today pose a missile threat to the United States, despite its continuing possession of large numbers of delivery systems with sufficient range to reach American targets, it possesses technologies, including ballistic missile components and expertise that are being actively proliferated. Furthermore, we have no assurance that a future Russian leadership will not threaten the United States with its extensive nuclear-armed missile inventory. Indeed, Russia appears increasingly committed to the reestablishment of a neo-imperialist sphere of influence in the new states to its south and west. Putin has spoken of rebuilding a "Great Russia" and has decried the dissolution of the Soviet Union as one of the greatest calamities of the twentieth century. Russia has also demonstrated a sustained and alarming drift toward authoritarianism and toward the reassertion of power on its periphery, as in the conflict with neighboring Georgia in 2008. A U.S. missile defense must therefore be sufficient to counter a future threat from Russia.

Space Challengers: Noko/ Terrorists



North Korea and Terrorists challenging US—arms exports, short range BMD
Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis 9 – Chaired by Dr. Robert L Pfaltzgraffi Jr., Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies, and Dr. William R. Van Cleave Professor Emeritus at Department of Defense and Strategic Studies Missouri State University, 2009, “Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century” Independent Working Group, online: www.ifpa.org/pdf/IWG2009.pdf

At the same time, the United States faces threats from other states that are either the exporters of WMD technologies or the breeding grounds and training sites for terrorists. One such nation is North Korea, which launched a ballistic missile over Japan in 1998. In addition to missiles, North Korea now is able to export fissile material or even assembled nuclear devices, posing an additional and unacceptable threat to the United States. A nuclear-armed North Korea would also weaken deterrence in and around the Korean peninsula. Moreover, many states, as well as terrorist groups, could launch short-range missiles from ships off American coasts. We currently have no missile defense capable of destroying such missiles. The devastation caused by short-range missiles such as Scuds armed with a nuclear warhead would be far greater than the 9/11 attacks. A comprehensive approach to homeland security, in which missile defense and efforts to identify, destroy, or change such regimes are priorities, is therefore needed.





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