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Terrorism – No Impact


>CONTINUED<

which is about ten times more difficult to build than the simple uranium bomb used at Hiroshima. In such a device, a spherical shock wave "implodes" inward and squeezes a ball of plutonium at the bomb's center so that it explodes in a chain reaction. To accomplish all this, one needs precision machine tools to build the parts, special furnaces to melt and cast the plutonium in a vacuum (liquid plutonium oxidizes rapidly in air), and high-precision switches and capacitors for the firing circuit. Also required are a qualified designer, a number of other specialists, and a testing program. Considering who the participating scientists are likely to be, the chances of getting an implosion bomb to work are rather small. THE ALTERNATIVE to plutonium is bomb-grade uranium--and here things would be easier. This is the fuel used in the Hiroshima bomb. Unlike the implosion bomb dropped on Nagasaki, this one did not have to be tested: the U.S. knew it would work. The South Africans built six uranium bombs without testing; they knew their bombs would work, too. All these devices used a simple "gun" design in which one slug of uranium was shot down a barrel into another. The problem with buying bomb-grade uranium is that one would need a great deal of it--around 120 pounds for a gun-type bomb--and nothing near that amount has turned up in the black market.
The odds of terrorists constructing and detonating a nuclear weapon is one in over three billion

Choong 9 (William, Senior Writer at The Straits Times, Lexis) jl

This leaves the second route: terrorists building a nuclear device themselves. And arguably, nuclear terrorists can find do-it-yourself instructions for a nuclear weapon, albeit crude ones, on the Internet.



Having the blueprint for a weapon, however, does not guarantee the production of that weapon. In the estimation of Professor John Mueller, a political scientist at Ohio University, terrorists will have to successfully navigate about 20 steps to build an improvised nuclear device - and all the steps must be achieved. These include processes centred on producing, transporting and detonating the device.

If the terrorist group has a 50 per cent chance of success for each step, the odds of the group pulling off all the steps would be one in a million. If each step involves a 33 per cent chance of success, the odds of pulling off all of them would drop to one in over three billion, Prof Mueller says in an e-mail in reply to questions by this newspaper.


**Kuwait Econ DA – Aff Answers

No UQ- Down- General (1/2)


Turkish economy destroyed- banks, investment losses, regulation

Elias 6/21[ Diana, Staff Writer, 2010 Rueters http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-49489620100621] KLS

(Reuters) - A better-late-than-never set of financial regulations will help rid Kuwait's investment sector of zombie firms and make it more attractive but won't turn the Gulf Arab state into the financial centre it aims to become. The central bank of the world's fourth-largest oil exporter has given the loosely regulated investment firms two years to comply with tougher leverage rules after risk management at many was found woefully lacking in the financial crisis. Kuwait's numerous trading and holding companies known as investment houses were hard hit by the meltdown, which prompted a government economic rescue package worth 1.5 billion dinars ($5.15 billion) last year. Critics note the houses require no banking licenses despite offering investment banking services, some real estate firms are licensed to operate as investment companies, and others lend without having to fulfil reserve requirements like banks. "This measure is just an attempt to accelerate the process of cleaning up the market," said independent economist Jassem al-Saadoun. "(The central bank) believes that if things are left without controls, companies will remain hanging between life and death for a long time and that is harmful to shareholders and to confidence in the market." Saadoun estimated some 40 percent of Kuwait's investment firms were too weak to survive, and 40 percent were in good condition. The rest, like Global Investment House and Investment Dar, were "too big" to be allowed to fall. Their keeling over would be "catastrophic" for banks, asset prices, individuals who invest in their funds and even the judicial system that could be swamped in the aftermath, he said. Global has reached a deal with creditors to reschedule $1.7 billion in debt, and Investment Dar, which is struggling to restructure about $3.48 billion of debt, has applied for support under the rescue package. The central bank demanded in its new directives to all investment companies that their debts not exceed double the size of their capital. Cash and cash equivalents should cover at least 10 percent of liabilities, and a company's investments or contracts outside the country were no longer allowed to account for more than 50 percent of its capital, the regulator said. In an interview with local daily al-Rai published on June 15, central bank governor, Sheikh Salem Abdul-Aziz al-Sabah, said 49 of the 100 investment companies already comply with all of these regulations. The rest adhere to only one or two. John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi, said some Kuwaiti firms had already learned a lesson about the dangers of heavy exposure to international markets, but they nonetheless "need to feel the arm of the state" and possible penalties if they digress from regulations. Because of the small size of Kuwait's economy, investment companies go abroad. "They accumulated a lot of risk based on huge amounts of leverage, the risk was not properly contained and they got hit," he said. Anwar al-Kandari, financial adviser to the chief executive of al-Imtiaz Investment Co, said it will take less than two years for the country's investment sector to slim down. "At the end of the day, the number of investment companies will go down either through mergers, liquidation or requests to cancel licenses," he said.


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