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Chinese aggression causes a death spiral of war
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Harbor Teacher Prep-subingsubing-Ho-Neg-Lamdl T1-Round3, Impact Turns Aff Neg - Michigan7 2019 BFHMRS
Chinese aggression causes a death spiral of warPappalardo 13 (Joe, contributing editor and author, Popular Mechanics, “Here's What a Shooting War in the East China Sea Might Look Like,” published November 27th, 2013, https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a9722/heres-what-a-shooting-war-in-the-east-china-sea-might-look-like-16205950/, accessed 7/18/19, JME.) Don't let the name fool you—Japan's Self Defense Forces are pretty advanced war fighters. Over the decades the island nation has built up the most formidable military in Asia. China has been pouring money into its military to match some of Japan's U.S.-made equipment, but the Japanese have better ships and airplanes. The United States is bound by treaty to protect Japan if it is attacked, but pundits debate whether the events in the East China Sea meet that standard. And both Japan and the U.S. are already war-weary and hoping the situation cools down. The lull after the air battle is deceptive. While China is itching to prove itself as a regional hegemon, its military does not want to launch headlong into a fight for airspace it will lose. So it turns to other tactics, even as diplomats discuss ways to ease tensions. Chinese submarines—quiet diesel–electric models that are hard to spot in the shallows—begin to lay mines. This would be easier to do by air, but the Chinese don't have air superiority, and want to block Japanese ships from nearing the contested islands. This move will keep Japanese and American warships from getting close to the islands, a necessary condition in case China wants to land troops. It also hampers Japanese and American air operations by keeping naval radar out of the area. (Not to mention the inability to rescue pilots downed in any future air battle. And the pilots would become diplomatic bargaining chips upon capture.) China has no shortage of mines. A 2012 paper by the U.S. Naval War College cited a Chinese article claiming the nation has more than 50,000 mines, including "over 30 varieties of contact, magnetic, acoustic, water pressure and mixed reaction sea mines, remote control sea mines, rocket-rising and mobile mines." The smartest mines in the inventory would be the most useful to the Chinese. They can be programmed to rise and strike ships with particular acoustic and magnetic signatures. The mines can also be remotely activated. China could lace the sea lanes with these and wait for the order to be given—a public warning to all in the East China Sea to keep out. The United States is good at sniffing out submarines. When Americans find Chinese subs deploying mines in areas where U.S. carrier groups will be operating, they try to force them to the surface. Under the water, U.S. submarines outgun the Chinese. They try to run, try to hide, and ultimately scuttle their ships with all hands lost. China activates the mines in anger and to save face—a retreat right now would humiliate the army and central government. A death spiral of war ensues. Ships explode. Sailors burn to death and drown. There is a call from Taiwan and Japan to degrade the Chinese navy, to strip them of their assets with air strikes and cruise missiles. Leaks in Washington, D.C., hint at a forceful plan. Knowing what the U.S. and Japanese militaries can do if given time to prepare, and knowing they are underdogs in the fight, the Chinese military have good reason to consider a preemptive strike. Download 0.83 Mb. Share with your friends:
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