Relations impacts and cp’s



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US-Turkey relations low


US-Turkey relations are low over multiple issues

Hughes, 6/21 [2010, John, former editor, Christian Science Monitor, Turkey is critical to a more moderate Islam, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/John-Hughes/2010/0621/Turkey-is-critical-to-a-more-moderate-Islam]
The relationship between the United States and Turkey is going to require deft handling in the rocky months and years ahead. Turkey is a successful example of a non-Arab land where Islam and democracy coexist and the economy prospers. Indonesia, the largest Islamic, non-Arab country in the world, is another such example. Both could play a constructive role in tempering Islamic extremism in the Arab world. But Indonesia lies in distant Southeast Asia, whereas Turkey is in and of the Middle East, with adjacent Arab neighbors. Turkey has long been seen as a land bridge between East and West. For decades it has tried to impress Europe and to persuade Europe to let it join the European Union. In recent times, Turkey has been refurbishing its ties with countries that border it like Iran, Iraq, and Syria. And it has planned to launch its own Arabic-language satellite TV station in order to connect more intimately with the Arab world. This new relationship was certainly accelerated by the opposition of some European countries to Turkey’s admission to the EU. But in major part, the new realignment is because Turkey’s new foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, a former professor of international relations, believes in a policy of “zero problems with neighbors.” As an example of this philosophy: Turkey ended a 16-year freeze in relations with Armenia. Turkey has also granted more cultural and political rights to its 14 million-strong Kurdish minority in a bid to erase tensions not only with them but with Kurds in Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Relations between Turkey and the US dipped in 2003 when the Turkish parliament refused to permit transit of American troops through Turkey to open a second front in the war with Iraq. With the election of Mr. Obama, and his early visit to Turkey for a key outreach speech to the Muslim world, the US-Turkey relationship regained warmth. Obama termed Turkey a “critical” ally, declared that the US was “not at war with Islam” and concluded his speech in parliament by kissing Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on both cheeks – a sign of friendship. US support for Turkey’s bid for membership in the EU also did not hurt. Turkish officials were careful to explain at that time that their renewed interest in the Muslim East did not mean a chill toward the West. Since then things have changed remarkably. Israeli military actions in Gaza, and the recent questionably organized Israeli commando action against a Turkish-flagged flotilla of pro-Palestinian activists seeking to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza, have threatened Turkey’s diplomatic relations with Israel, and strained Turkish relations with the US. Middle East expert Steven Cook wrote in Foreign Policy magazine that Washington and Ankara share the same goals: peace between Israel and Palestinians; a stable, unified Iraq; an Iran without nuclear weapons; stability in Afghanistan; and a Western-oriented Syria. But, he added, “when you get down to details,Washington and Ankara “are on opposite ends of virtually all these issues.” One example of this is the latest Turkish-Brazilian effort to defuse Iran’s nuclear ambitions, counterproductive to US diplomatic efforts.

us-Turkey relations low



Claims that US-Turkey relations are high or can get through the present conflict are just rhetorical failures to recognize that the two countries cannot have strategic relations

Rozen, 6/18 [Laura, foreign policy writer for the Politico, 2010, The Turkish-American split , http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0610/The_TurkishAmerican_split.html]
The United States has been slow to recognize how Turkey's perspective and interests have changed, argue former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Mort Abramowitz and Henri Barkey, in The National Interest: Acrimony permeates American-Turkish relations. Harsh words have been exchanged at high levels over Gaza and Iran. The American right-wing has virtually declared Turkey beyond the pale and appears to long for the Turkish military to take over. Turkey’s nationalistic media talk about the country’s noble role in the flotilla crisis, and the words of senior leaders border on the conspiratorial. Many wonder whether our interests are now so different that they preclude close collaboration. This is not a new phenomenon. Turkey has always been a prickly ally, not one that simply saluted. During the Cold War the Turks closed U.S. bases and kicked out the Peace Corps after we imposed an arms embargo in response to their invasion of northern Cyprus. As for our secular Turkish military friends, they barely supported the United States in the first Gulf War and undermined it in the run up to the second; and refuse to send combat troops to Afghanistan. Besotted by the language of strategic partnership it invented for Ankara’s benefit, the United States has been slow in recognizing how Turkey’s perspective and interests have changed. Whatever America’s importance to Turkey, the dependency of the past is over. Russia is no longer an enemy but a valued economic partner. Turkey’s EU membership is distant and Ankara’s interest in the body is diminishing. AKP rule produced sizeable economic growth for much of this decade and Turkish economic activity is now global. Ankara is on the move and feeling it.
Turkey doesn’t have an incentive to maintain relations

Sestanovich, 7/1 [2010, Stephen, Professor of International Diplomacy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He served as ambassador-at-large for the former Soviet Union from 1997 to 2001, How Obama Will Deal With Our Wayward Ally, Turkey, http://www.tnr.com/blog/foreign-policy/75995/how-will-obama-deal-his-wayward-ally-turkey]
It’s a shock to see one of the pillars of American foreign policy start to disintegrate before our very eyes. That’s what seems to be happening to the relationship between the United States and Turkey, which policymakers in both countries have taken for granted for decades. I know it’s often said that formal alliances are losing their central place in international politics. If so, maybe the bad blood between Ankara and Washington is just part of a trend, something we wearily adjust to. But it feels more momentous and damaging than that—like something we’ll regret for years to come. Not so long ago we thought of Turkey as a unique strategic asset in the twenty-first century—an ally that joined real democracy and a Muslim heritage. The combination seems to have turned negative. In Turkey, we now hear, national identity and mass politics make the United States more unpopular than in places where friendly autocrats keep anti-Americanism under control. Of all the members of the G-20—the group that added fast-growing emerging powers to the old G-8—Turkey is the only one whose relations with the United States have deteriorated since Barack Obama took office. It was the only American ally to vote against new sanctions on Iran in the U.N. Security Council last month. And even before the famous flotilla left Turkey for Gaza, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had dissented from American diplomacy in the Middle East, treating Hamas as the true voice of Palestinian nationalism. The United States does not often face a challenge like this—a broad disagreement with a major ally, rooted in both domestic politics and clashing geopolitical aspirations. We’re more accustomed to dealing with insecure allies, who want us on their side. Our problem with the Turks is not their insecurity, but their confidence. They want us out of their way.



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