Science, and transportation united states senate

requirements include the following:

1. All research and experiments related to weather modfication

and control conducted within laboratories;

2. Those weather modification operations designed to alleviate

sudden, unexpected, hazardous conditions which require expe-

ditious localized action for:

a. Protection against fire,

b. Prevention of frost,

c. Dispersal of fog ; and

3. Field research and development by institutions of higher

learning. 40

Persons intending to conduct activities under the second exemption

above are required to make "every reasonable effort" prior to the

operations to notify the Department of Ecology of the proposed action

and to provide certain information on operations to be conducted.

Persons planning to conduct field research under the third exemption

above must provide information on their proposed project in writing

to the department 10 days prior to commencement of activities and

must report periodically on the status of the project. 41

Licensing is required for each individual or organization planning

to conduct nonexempted operations, and qualifications for such a li-

cense include the requirement for responsible individuals to be certified

professional members of the American Meteorological Society or to

possess academic achievements and professional experience necessary

to receive such certification. Permits are required for each operation

not exempted, and applicants for such permits must publish notice of

intention to conduct weather modification operations in a legal news-

paper having general circulation in the county or counties in which

the affected area is located. The permittee is required to maintain daily

reports on operations and to submit bimonthly reports to the Depart-

ment of Ecology. Proof of financial responsibility must also be pro-

vided to the department. 42

Normally the State of Washington does not finance weather mod-

ification operations; however, the severe drought conditions in late

1976 led the State legislature, upon the recommendation of the Senate

Committee on Agriculture, to pass an emergency cloud-seeding bill

on February 18, 1977. This act authorized the Department of Natural

Resources to enter into a contract with the University of Washington's

Cloud Physics Group to conduct emergency cloud seeding. 43 The con-

tract required the university to carry out a program of weather modi-

fication, using aircraft, in an attempt to increase snowpack in the Cas-

cade Mountains and to augment precipitation in critical areas of east-

ern Washington, although highest priority and maximum effort were

given to the Cascade Mountain work following subsequent direction

from the Department of Natural Resources. 44

All of the seeding in this program was done from aircraft in order

39 Ch. 173-495 WAC. weather modification, adopted Dec. 28, 1977.

« Ibid., WAC 173-495-040.

« Ibid.

J2 Ibid.

43 Additional weather modification projects were carried out by public utility companies

and private organizations under the general authorization of this act ; two of these projects

are discussed briefly below.

" Hobbs, Peter V., "The State of Washington's Emergency Cloud Seeding Program (Feb-

ruary-June 1977)." University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cloud

Physics Group, Seattle, July 1977, pp. 1-3.

384

to eliminate uncertainties from ground-based seeding. Crushed dry ice

ington were to be seeded with ammonium nitrate had that portion of

the program not been curtailed. Since the State's emergency cloud

seeding program was an operational program and not experimental,

it was not designed nor operated in a way that could provide a sci-

entific evaluation of the seeding effects. A scientist aboard each flight

assessed the potential for seeding and decided upon the optimum flight

route and rate of dispersal for seeding material. Wherever possible,

effects of seeding were documented through visual observation, pho-

tography, or direct measurements. It was apparent, in spite of the

limitations imposed on evaluation, that "significant modifications to

cloud structures and increases in precipitation-sized particles were

produced by the cloud seeding. It is likely that these modifications pro-

duced increases in precipitation on the ground, although this cannot

be proved scientifically from the data collected in this operational

program." 45

Hobbs has proposed that a demonstration cloud-seeding project for

the State of Washington be designed and implemented, using both

physical and statistical criteria to determine the effects of seeding.

Such a project is currently under consideration by the Washington

State Depart ment of Commerce and Economic Development and

would be conducted by the University of Washington. 46

Two other projects conducted during the 1977 drought by a commer-

cial operator under contract may be noted. In one case farmers in Gar-

field and Columbia Counties in eastern Washington formed a local

association, collected a 10-cent per acre assessment, and deposited the

funds with the State Department of Natural Kesources, who con-

tracted on their behalf for the requested services. Non-randomized

weather modification operations were conducted in May and June of

1977, using a cloud-seeding aircraft and a weather radar system in-

stalled at Pomeroy, Washington. Based on preliminary analysis of

precipitation data from National Weather Service stations and from

other local stations in the target and control areas, a 15 to 20 percent

increase in rainfall from seeded storms was suggested. 47

The other operational program, conducted by the same contractor,

was initiated by the Tacoma City Light and Power Company, as a

possible means of enhancing water supplies from the Cowlitz and Nis-

qually watersheds in southwestern Washington. Funding was passed

from the company to the State Department of Natural Resources,

which contracted for the seeding in March 1977, and operations were

carried out from late March through June, using an aircraft and a

weather radar system for support, Preliminary analysis, based on com-

parisons of precipitation data from the control and target areas, again

suggested rainfall increases of 15 to 20 percent from the seeded

storms. 48

45 Ibid., p. 5. 9. and 23.

"Ibid., pp. 26-27.

47 Henderson, Thomas J., "The Eastern Washington Cloud Seeding Program, a summary

of cloud seeding activities conducted over portions of Garfield and Columbia Counties in

Washington during the period May 18, 1077 through June 30, 1077." Atmospherics, Inc.,

report prepared for the Department of Natural Resources, State of Washington, Fresno,

Calif July 20. 1077. pp. 2. 3, and 21.

48 Henderson, Thomas J., "The Cowlitz-Nisqually Cloud Seeding Program, a summary

of cloud seeding activities conducted over the Cowlitz-Nisqually Drainage In Washington

during the period March 25, 1077 through June 30, 1077." Atmospherics, Inc., report pre-

pared for the Department of Natural Resources, State of Washington, Fresno, California,

July 26, 1077, pp. 2 and 17.

CHAPTER 8

PRIVATE ACTIVITIES IN WEATHER MODIFICATION

(By Robert E. Morrison, Specialist in Earth Sciences, Science Policy Research

Division, Congressional Research Service)

Introduction

Two previous chapters reviewed, respectively, the weather modifica-

tion activities and interests of the Federal Government and of State

and local jurisdictions. Many of the operational services performed

for agencies in these governmental bodies and for private sponsors,

have been carried out under contract by commercial firms who have

developed expertise in a broad range of weather modification capa-

bilities or who specialize in particular services essential to both re-

search and operational projects. A summary of the kinds of activities

performed by these companies is contained in this chapter. Other pri-

vate organizations — such as cooperative associations of farmers and

orchardists, utilities, airlines, and lumber companies — are among

the sponsors and organizers of operational weather modification proj-

ects. Some of these privately sponsored projects have been discussed

in several sections of the previous chapter under activities conducted

within and under the regulation of the States.

While the majority of universities whose atmospheric science and

other departments have participated significantly in weather modifi-

cation research projects are public institutions, mostly in the Western

States, a few private universities and research foundations have also

contributed to the understanding of weather modification through

their research activities. Since the efforts of universities are so closely

tied to the discussions on the status of the technology and needed re-

search, Federal and State activities, and other particular aspects of the

subject addressed in later chapters, activities of academic institutions

are not discussed separately.

Important among the private institutions concerned with weather

modification are the professional organizations of which research and

operational weather modifiers and other interested meteorologists are

members. These include the American Meteorological Society, the

Weather Modification Association, and the Irrigation and Drainage

Division of the American Society of Civil Engineers. In addition, the

North American Interstate Weather Modification Council (discussed

in the previous chapter) is an organization whose membership consists

of governments of U.S. States and Canadian Provinces and the gov-

ernment of Mexico, which serves as a forum for interstate coordi-

nation and exchange of information on weather modification. Two pro-

fessional organizations, the Weather Modification Association and the

American Meteorological Society, will be discussed in this chapter.

(385)

386

formal opposition groups have developed in various sections of the

country. Reasons for such opposition are varied and are based on both

real and perceived adverse consequences from weather modification.

Some of the objections often voiced by private groups and some ex-

amples of formal opposition groups are reviewed in this chapter.

Commercial Weather Modifiers

scope and significance of contract activities

Weather modification operations, which now cover a significant area

of the United States, are almost exclusively conducted on a contract

basis for specific users by professional cloud seeding organizations.

Contracts often cover only one season of the year; however, a large

number of such projects are renewed annually. Target areas range

from a few hundred to a few thousand square miles. In 1976, 6 of 10

major companies having substantial numbers of contracts received

about $2.7 million in contract awards for operations within the United

States. In addition, a few of these companies also had overseas con-

tracts. 1 Owing to the increased demand for emergency programs dur-

ing the recent drought, it is estimated that 1977 contracts totaled about

$3.5 million. Most weather modification operational activities are

carried out in the region of the country from the Great Plains west-

ward, though some projects do occur from time to time in Eastern

States as well. The distribution of these projects is shown in figure 2

in the previous chapter; and statistics on commercial operators and

projects in which they provide services are contained in tables in that

chapter. 2

The initial role of the private weather modification operators was

to sustain weather modification activity during its early years. During

that period there was heated scientific controversy with other pro-

fessional meteorologists on the efficacy of cloud seeding. Later, their

operations provided a valuable data base which permitted the early

evaluation of seeding efforts and estimation of the potential prospects

for the technology, especially by several select committees assembled

for such assessment within the Federal Government. 3 Meanwhile,

commercial operators, who decreased in number after the initial surge

of the early 1950 era, have grown in competence and in public respect.

Their operations have incorporated the benefits of accumulated experi-

ence and research findings. Today, more often that not, they work

hand in hand with researchers in weather modification, and, in fact,

they often participate in research projects, contributing much of their

know-how acquired through their unique experiences.

SUMMARY OF CONTRACT SERVICES

The first scientific weather modification activities were conducted by

the private sector. In an earlier chapter Ave noted the now famous

pioneering work of Schaefer, Langmuir, and Vonnegut — all with the

General Electric Co. — in the mid- to late 1940's. 4 After the early

1 Elliott Robert D., private communication, I >ecember 1977.

2 See ch. 7, pp. 345 and 347.

Elliott, private communication, l!>77.

* See ch. 2, p. 37.

387

General Electric discoveries, the first early cloud seeding was initiated

groups. 5 In addition to providing some extra water and accumulating

information on seeding effects, these private projects provided testing

for various seeding modes and for different operational schemes. 6

Since the early 1950's cloud-seeding activities have been carried on

at a moderately uniform level following the initial flurry of activities

immediately after the General Electric discoveries. Excluding fog

clearing (which is customarily not performed in the context of weather

modification but rather as part of other airport operations), the an-

nual number of private weather modification projects has been about

30, mostly concentrating in rain or snowpack enhancement. 7 The num-

ber of such projects and the number of operators were 47 and 15,

respectively, during calendar year 1975, according to the records of

the Xational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 8

(The NO A A statistics include operations in fog dispersal at airports.)

Many of the operations discussed earlier and summarized in tables and

figures on U.S. weather modification activities for 1975 and 1976 in-

clude operations that have either been conducted or sponsored by pri-

vate concerns. 9

During the 1950's and 1960's these projects were conducted for the

most part by five major companies though a larger number were in-

volved during the early 1950's. Developing in the 1960's and moving

into the 1970's a number of operators, inclined to depend mostly on

aircraft seeding, began summer cumulus seeding in the northern Great

Plains. Their emphasis has been primarily on increasing rainfall and

suppressing hail, and their principal sponsors have been farm groups. 10

Since the 1950's there have been conducted, on an annual basis, be-

tween six and nine operational projects intended to increase precipita-

tion in watersheds in the West, sponsored by utility companies. A num-

ber of these projects were continued over an extended period of years.

The Southern California Edison project, for example, in the upper

San Joaquin River basin in the Sierra Xevada Mountains has been in

operation continuously every winter since the 1950-51 season. 11 Such

utility company projects tend to run for a number of successive years

when demand exceeds power resources; after new generating plants

with full reservoirs become operational, cloud seeding is often cur-

tailed until again required by increased power demands.

There has also been some interest in cloud seeding on the part of

the Western lumber industry, when drought conditions reduce fuel

moisture indices and increase the attendant potential for forest fires.

Enhancement of precipitation from summer cumulus clouds, through

contracts with weather modification operators, has been employed to

increase moisture and, on occasions, to assist in limiting or extinguish-

ing fires. 12

5 Elliott, Robert D.. "Experience of the Private Sector," in Wilmot N. Hess (editor),

'Weather and Climate Modification," New York, Wiley, 1974, p. 46.

6 Ibid.

' IMd.

tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Environmental Monitoring and

Prediction. Rockvillp. Md.. June 1976, p. 4.

9 See ch. 7, p. 343 ff, and see app. G.

10 Elliott. 1974, "Experience of the Private Sector." 1974, pp. 47-48.

11 Ibid., p. 48.

12 Ibid.

388

to clear airport fog was initiated as an operational procedure during

the 19'60's. Since the current operational procedures apply almost

exclusively to cold fogs, airports in more northerly or higher altitude

locations in the United States are the ones which can benefit from this

technology. Each winter, there are about 15 projects underway

throughout the country. The seeding flights are usually conducted by

local operators under contract to the airlines. Low-flying aircraft

usually seed with crushed dry ice, which is dropped into the fog. 13 In

1975 there were nine cold fog and one warm fog dispersal projects

conducted at U.S. airports under contract to airlines. 14

The principal U.S. commercial weather modification operators are

also involved in contract services in other parts of the world. In par-

ticular, such projects have been conducted in Canada, in Central and

South America, in Africa, in the Near East, and in Europe. 15

EVALUATION AND RESEARCH BY COMMERCIAL FIRMS

Commercial weather modification firms, under contract to private

organizations or local jurisdictions, are expected to develop additional

water resources or to modify effects of damaging storms in order to

alleviate immediate or impending economic and personal losses

brought on by drought or other severe weather. They are therefore

usually obliged to expend most if not all of their efforts and support-

ing funds in attempting to mitigate these extreme conditions and to

attend less to scientific evaluation of their activities than would be true

in a carefully designed experimental or demonstration project.

The private sector has contributed to evaluation, however. It has

pioneered in evaluation of results through comparison of data from

seeding operations with historical data, using the latter as the un-

seeded samples. Using relationships based on historical precipitation

records, for example, predictions have been made of what precipitation

can be expected in the target area when seeded. There is, of course, the

possibility that historical data contain inconsistencies, so that, in a

project performed purely for research purposes, this practice is re-

placed by randomization. This kind of evaluation has also been applied

in projects designed to increase snowpack, where snow course measure-

ments, taken at monthly intervals in the West for the past 20 to 40

years, have provided the historical record. 10 Statistics on annual

stream flow and on crop hail damage have also been used as criteria

for project evaluation.

The private sector of the weather modification community has also

been involved in the conduct of projects designed for pure research

purposes, when under contract to provide a variety of professional

services in connection with projects. A series of such experiments have

been carried out, for example, in the vicinity of Santa Barbara, Calif.

The first Santa Barbara randomized seeding project (1957-60) in-

volved one major private contractor. North American Weather Con-

sultants, along with a number of State and local agencies from Cali-

fornia and some agencies of the Federal Government. The second

« It.ld.. pp. 4S-49.

m Xo<> tallies 6 and 7. ch. 7, and also see app. G.

« Elliott, "Experience of the Private Sector." 1974. p. 49.

10 Ibid., p. 60.

389

Santa Barbara randomized seeding experiment (1967-70) was con-

the Naval Weapons Center at China Lake, Calif. Also, during the

1970 ? s, a randomized seeding project was sponsored by the Pacific Gas

& Electric Co. in the Lake Almanor drainage basin of the Sierra

Nevada. 17 There are other examples where users have conducted ran-

domized projects for a number of years in order to "calibrate'' their

watersheds and cloud types.

PARTICIPATION IN FEDERAL RESEARCH PROJECTS

A number of private firms have performed a variety of meteorologi-

cal services under contract to Federal agencies sponsoring weather

modification research projects. These companies include both those

who also provide professional weather modification services in pri-

vately or publicly financed operational projects as well as meteorologi-

cal firms who do not otherwise engage in weather modification. Al-

though most weather modification programs of the several Federal

agencies have at some time contracted with such private companies

as well as with universities, the principal sponsor of research projects

using these contractors in recent years has been the Bureau of Reclama-

tion through its atmospheric water resources management program

(Project Skywater). Some of these commercial organizations, who

have performed various services for "Skywater" are identified in

table 8 in chapter 5. 18 Prior to reduction of weather modification re-

search activities in the 1970's, the Department of Defense was a major

sponsor of contracted research with industrial and academic weather