Terror Defense No Al Qaida Terror



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No Regional Hegemony

Russia doesn’t seek regional or global hegemony – Putin confirms no lash out.


RT News 13 [RT News, “Putin: Russia not aspiring to be superpower, or teach others how to live,” December 15, 2013, http://rt.com/news/putin-russia-superpower-address-113/]//JIH

Russia does not seek the role of a regional or global hegemony, but will defend its core values and interests, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. All attempts to impose on other nations have failed, he added. The Russian leader gave an assurance that Russia wants to respect the sovereignty and stability of other countries, as he was addressing the Federal Assembly, the collective of the two houses of the Russian parliament. “We will seek leadership by defending international law, advocating respect for national sovereignty, independence and the uniqueness of peoples,” Putin said. “We have always been proud of our country, but we do not aspire to the title of superpower, which is understood to be pretense for global or regional hegemony. We do not impinge on anyone’s interests, do not impose our patronage, do not attempt to lecture anyone on how they should live,” he added. Putin did not directly mention the United States in his speech, but the reference to Washington’s military actions in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya was hard to overlook. Those and less direct interventions, like the support of the rebel forces in Syria, have led to regress for the respective nations, Putin stated. On the other hand Russia’s approach, which rejects the use of force and promotes political dialogue and compromise, have been fruitful in both Syria and Iran, the Russian president said.

No Regional Wars

Putin assures peace and will be deterred from invading neighboring countries due to their increased militarization.


Kozlowska 15 [Hanna Kozlowska, Journalist, editor, translator. Writes about the United States and Poland, “Russia’s scared neighbors are beefing up their security,” February 24, 2015, http://qz.com/349704/russias-scared-neighbors-are-beefing-up-their-security/]//JIH

Russian president Vladimir Putin may be assuring the world that he is working to secure peace in Ukraine and that it is “unlikely” he will wage war with the country, but events on the ground tell the real story. Kremlin-backed rebels ignored a ceasefire, continuing their fight with the Ukrainian army, and Russia refuses to stop carrying out snap military exercises on its territory. And this is making Russia’s western neighbors nervous. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia—all former Soviet republics and NATO members—are adopting new security measures, anxious about Putin’s next move. Lithuania’s State Defense Council, which includes the country’s highest officials, said Tuesday it would temporarily re-introduce military conscription. In 2008, Lithuania suspended the draft, moving toward a professional force. But times are changing, and men between the ages of 19 and 26 will have to serve, bolstering the 15,000-strong Lithuanian army by between 3,000 and 3,500 men a year. “Under new geopolitical circumstances, the army must be properly prepared for the country’s armed defense even in times of peace,” said the country’s president Dalia Grybauskaite. The bill still has to be approved by the Lithuanian parliament. All three Baltic states are significantly increasing their military spending. Latvia announced new recruitment efforts, and Estonia finalized the biggest military deal (paywall) in its history in December, buying 44 combat vehicles and six tanks from the Netherlands, totaling 138 million euro. But the Baltics’ higher defense shopping bill—1.2 billion euro—is nothing more than a blip compared to Russia’s defense spending, which amounted to 60 billion euro in 2014. Poland, which also borders Russia, and is far bigger than the Baltics, announced earlier this month a long shopping list of its own, allocating 33.6 billion euro over a decade on a military upgrade.


No Russia SOI

Russian military developments in the arctic are designed for deterrence and for replacing decommissioned submarines – there is no desire to create a sphere of influence.


Sergunin and Konyshev 14 [Alexander Sergunin, PhD., Professor in the Department of International Relations, School of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University, Valery Konyshev, Ph.D, Professor of the Department of Theory and History of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University's School of International Relations, “Four dangerous myths about Russia's plans for the Arctic,” Nov 25, 2014, http://www.russia-direct.org/analysis/four-dangerous-myths-about-russias-plans-arctic]//JIH

Myth #3: The Russian military’s modernization programs in the Arctic are massive in scope, thereby provoking military counter-measures from neighbors and destabilizing the regional military balance.

Similar to a Russian “matryoshka” nesting doll, there is one additional, smaller myth embedded within a bigger myth. Many foreign analysts tend to confuse the extent of Russian strategic and conventional forces deployed in the Arctic as well as the scale of their modernization programs. Russia has inherited the existing nuclear strategic forces structure from the Soviet era. For this reason, the naval bases on the Kola Peninsula [located in the far northwest of Russia,to the north of the Arctic Circle and constituting the bulk of the territory of Murmansk Oblast] are still a home for the two-thirds of Russia’s strategic nuclear submarines.

However, this military potential is designed for providing a strategic deterrence on a global scale rather than for ensuring Moscow’s military preponderance in the Arctic region. The largest part of the Northern Fleet’s surface vessels, such as the cruiser Peter the Great or aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, are also designed for the projection of Russia’s sea power beyond the Arctic military theater. In short, the strategic component of the Russian forces in the High North has a little to do with the geopolitical rivalry in the Arctic.



The strategic forces’ modernization programs are of limited nature and aim at replacing decommissioned submarines and surface vessels rather than increasing these forces in terms of quantity and offensive potential. In fact, the total number of strategic submarines and large surface ships continues to decrease from earlier levels in the 1980s.

As far as the Russian conventional forces in the High North are concerned, their modernization programs are also rather modest and simply aim to upgrade these forces rather than provide them with additional offensive capabilities or restore the huge military potential of the Soviet era. The numbers of surface vessels, tactical submarines, aircraft and helicopters are decreasing. The plans to create an Arctic brigade by 2015 do not mean a creation of a new, additional, military structure. Such a unit is being created on the basis of the existing 200th motorized infantry brigade in Pechenga. It will be better armed, equipped and trained for combat in the Arctic conditions. It should be noted that the U.S., Canada and Norway already are establishing similar units. The Russian Defense Ministry has also a plan to establish a second Arctic brigade but it is indefinite both about the location for this unit (Arkhangelsk or Yamal-Nenets District) or time of creation (2016 or 2017).

Given Russia’s financial constraints, these programs have recently become less ambitious and more realistic. Now they are comparable with the military modernization programs of other Arctic players. As mentioned above, the Russian military increasingly aims at defending the country’s economic interests in the region and control over the huge AZRF territory rather than expanding its “sphere of influence.” Accordingly, the plans to establish a unified command “North” by 2017 should be considered as an effort to better coordinate the Russian land and air forces deployed in the AZRF rather than an intention to expand Moscow’s military activities in the entire region.


Russia doesn’t want conflict in the arctic and is only pursuing specific interests – Russian officials state that they have no motive to establish a larger sphere of influence.


RT News 14 [RT News, “Russia: We don’t want the Arctic to become arena of conflict,” August 27, 2014, http://rt.com/news/183228-lavrov-arctic-canada-shelf/]//JIH

"The Arctic shouldn’t be dragged into the rhetoric of militarization,” the Russian official said during a Q & A at the Seliger youth forum in central Russia. “There are accusations flying about that we are trying to make a land-grab during a latter-day gold rush. This is nonsense. We don’t want the Arctic to become an arena of conflict.” Lavrov’s answer was a response to comments attributed to Canada’s foreign minister John Baird, who told Denmark’s Berlingske newspaper earlier this week that Ottawa was “determined to promote and defend the sovereignty of Canada in the Arctic” in the face of the Russian threat, manifested in the reactivation of a Soviet-era base off its north-eastern coast, and fly-bys by Russian aircraft. “Baird’s press service has tried to say that his comments were lost in translation and misunderstood. But I do not think this is the case – he has a reputation for such flourishes,” said Lavrov. The veteran diplomat suggested that the Arctic Council – which includes Russia, Canada, the US, Denmark, and Norway, the five Polar Circle countries – should take the lead role in establishing the framework for the development of the region. "This is the legitimate format, which allows the five countries to establish their rules for interaction in the region.” The territories beyond the Polar Circle are thought to contain 15 percent of the world’s oil, and 30 percent of its gas, according to US Geological Survey research. "When we get together in the framework of this forum, no one ever mentions any conflicts and confrontations. Everyone is interested in preserving cooperation and international law as the basic principles for exploration and development of the region," emphasized Lavrov. Canada boycotted the Moscow meeting of the Council this April, in protest against events leading to the secession of Crimea from Ukraine. The two countries, which already have the largest slice of the Arctic, are in the process of lodging applications to the UN that would extend their 200 mile nautical border further, if they manage to definitively prove that parts of the Arctic are extensions of their own continents, covered only by a shallow mass of water. Canada submitted an initial claim late last year, while Russia, which first laid claim to the land near the North Pole in 2001, will hand in a beefed up application next year. “The formalization of our rights granted by the Russian continental Arctic shelf is nearing completion. This will be a long procedure but we're confident we have all the legal grounds for formalizing our rights to the entire continental shelf in the Arctic Ocean,” said Lavrov. The Russian diplomat also attempted to assuage concerns that the ecologically unique territory will be at the mercy of oil-producing countries, as all five nations have extraction projects in the region at various stages of completion. “The Arctic Council recently took a decision to admit observer countries. This was a long process. But now we are joined by various EU states, China, India, Japan, and Korea. Though of course, the final decisions will be in the hands of the five leading players.” Lavrov also launched a barb at Greenpeace, one of the most vocal opponents of Arctic development, which had its ship temporarily seized while boarding a gas extraction platform off the Russian coast last year. “Greenpeace can rest easy – we share its concerns about oil spills and the ecological situation of this region. But unlike their attention-seeking protests, we are doing all the practical work.”


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