U. S. Department of Transportation



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Airport Characteristics


This information describes the characteristics of the airport at which the incident occurred. In general, this information will stay the same from incident to incident at the same airport45 so most of the interesting variation in these variables is between airports. The conclusions are therefore more useful when comparing different types of airports.

Special Procedures


(ATQA OE)

This variable indicates if special procedures were in effect at the time of the incident. Figure 14 presents the distribution of this variable.



figure 14 represents the overall distribution of special procedures in place. the top left chart indicates the overall frequency, with a majority of responses being “no”. the top right chart indicates frequency by severity category, with a majority of responses being “no”, and the highest frequency in category c. the lower left chart indicates frequency according to incident type, with the majority of responses being “yes”, and the highest frequency in the pd type. and the lower right chart indicates the percentage of ratings by severity case, with the highest response being “no”. all categories show a “no” response frequency of 80 or higher, and a “yes” frequency of 20 or less.

Figure – Distribution of Special Procedures in Place




Future Research


Table 66 and Table 67 reports the breakdown of this variable by severity and the results of Fisher’s Exact test. Note that this variable can only be examined among OE incidents. The test statistic indicates that special procedures have no effect on the severity of an incident. While there is no impact on severity, no information can be gleaned about the impact on frequency of incursions while special procedures are in effect.

Table – Observed Distribution of Special Procedures in Place by Severity






A

B

C

D

Total

No

39

36

756

96

927

Yes

9

3

88

6

106

Total

48

39

844

102

1,033

Table – Expected Distribution of Special Procedures in Place by Severity




A

B

C

D

Total

No

43

35

757

92

927

Yes

5

4

87

10

106

Total

48

39

844

102

1,033

Traffic Complexity Code


(ATQA OE)

This variable indicates the complexity of traffic at the time of the incident on a five-point scale. This variable originates from the ATQA OE database and only applies to OE incidents. Figure 15 presents the distribution of hourly ops by complexity code. Higher complexity is associated with higher hourly operations. Recall that hourly operations are not entirely accurate and the extreme outliers likely represent data problems rather than actual observations. Regardless, the graph shows a distinct trend in median operations by complexity level. However, the degree to which the distributions overlap in the middle categories suggests that the definition of complexity may not be entirely clear in that region (or at least not entirely defined by hourly operations).

The positive correlation between complexity code and hourly operations is not visible for OEP 35 airports. There is a slight trend in median hourly operations, however the overlap between categories is much more pronounced. It is also helpful to keep these values in mind when examining the results presented below.

figure 15 displays the distribution of hourly operations by traffic complexity code. the left hand chart displays the information for all airports. median hourly operations are increasing with traffic complexity code. the second chart on the right divides the population into two subgroups by oep35 status. median hourly operations are increasing with traffic complexity code but is less pronounced for the oep35 airports.

Figure – Distribution of Hourly Operations by Complexity Code, OEP 35 versus Non-OEP 35



refer to text in discussion.

Figure – Distribution of Traffic Complexity Code

Figure 16 presents the overall distribution for complexity code. Table 68 and Table 69 present the distribution of responses by severity category and the results of a Chi-Squared test.

Table – Observed Distribution of Traffic Complexity by Severity






A

B

C

D

Total

Low

11

8

250

65

334

Low-Mid

3

8

160

17

188

Average

22

14

248

17

301

Average-High

7

7

144

2

160

High

5

2

42

1

50

Total

48

39

844

102

1,033



Chi2 score: 70.79

Degrees of Freedom: 12

P-value: 0.00

Table – Expected Distribution of Traffic Complexity by Severity




A

B

C

D

Total

Low

16

13

273

33

334

Low-Mid

9

7

154

19

188

Average

14

11

246

30

301

Average-High

7

6

131

16

160

High

2

2

41

5

50

Total

48

39

844

102

1,033

It appears that category D incidents are observed more than expected for low complexity, while the conflict events are observed more frequently than expected for average complexity. Category C incursions appear more often than expected for all levels of complexity except the lowest. This suggests that increased complexity is associated with increased severity.


Future Research

  • Refine and clarify traffic complexity measures


There is a variety of other problems associated with the interpretation of this variable. First and foremost, this is a purely subjective measure. The reporting form offers no guidance on what constitutes “average” or “high” complexity so interpretations of “high” complexity may differ person-to-person or day-to-day. Secondly, due to the lack of guidance, the measure is poorly calibrated. For example, “average complexity” may refer to what is average for a given tower, average for a time of day, or average across the entire NAS. Thus, even though someone may report “average” complexity, it is difficult to tell what the comparison is (i.e., “average” relative to what?). Thirdly, without normal operations it is difficult to discern the true impact of this variable; that is, it is possible that incursions themselves are more likely in high complexity times even if it does not affect the distribution of severity. It is possible that high complexity occurs twice as often for incursion events as for normal operations. Nevertheless, the results in Table 68 indicate that there is a relationship between complexity and incident severity.


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