Part 6.0 Public Involvement

Secondly, what basis does the state have for assuming property owners will fail to maintain their property and harm the environment? For the GC corridor, much of the land is agricultural; we submit that the farmers on that land would not harm themselves, financially or otherwise, by failing to maintain it. The state’s intent cannot be to end chemical runoff, protect rare/endangered species, or otherwise control threats to the environment because there are no such protective actions or responsibilities specified in the corridor protection statute.

We would also point to the 2015-2020 Highway Improvement Plan which shows the budget for land acquisition in the GC corridor has dropped from $100,000/yr (in the 2005-2010 plan) to $10,000/yr. A 90% drop signals to us that the Department does not expect to purchase any property for at least the next 6 years, but rather will allow capital improvements to continue.

There are any number of construction alternatives that were not part of either the Feasibility Study or the Corridor Protection Study, both of which focused only on the preference for an outer belt divided highway. We believe growth over the next century can be handled by a combination of the following listed improvements to existing arterials and collectors. We note that officials have suggested the GC could be built in stages, but counter that building these alternatives as they are needed serves much the same purpose, would more directly address the localized transportation problems, and would be cheaper.

Widen IL163 if/when there is growth north of Millstadt.

Add a route 158 bypass south of Millstadt, if needed

Widen western portions of Freeburg-Douglas Road as Smithton grows

Widen portions of RT159 toward Belleville as Smithton grows

Widen Greenmount Road north of IL15 and consider both widening Plum Hill School Road and connecting it with new construction to Jefferson (appx 1.4 miles along Sugar Creek) when/if additional development occurs in The Orchards, Orchard Lakes, Maple Hill, Fox Valley Estates, and Greenmount Manor subdivisions.

We evaluated a large number of studies which directly bear on the transportation question, and which will influence regional and local activities. Those studies cover a very broad range of issues tied to transportation--and highway usage in particular. They include:

Social and cultural trends (attitudes, housing, sprawl, and community development) Demographic trends affecting transportation (population growth, aging, etc.)

Employment trends

The economics of highway spending/investment

Trends in car usage

Transportation planning and management (highway maintenance, congestion mitigation, traffic safety, and so on)

Actual outer belt highway experiences

This chapter will examine the trends which will determine the region’s need for new transportation infrastructure. It will outline what the experts currently believe and forecast in a number of disciplines, and capture salient conclusions from their studies which validate our contention that continuing to build outer-belt highways, which encourage sprawl, is wasteful and counterproductive.

There are a number of such trends in social behavior all of which mean people will be driving less in the future, including people living in the MetroEast. We shall address four of them—the future consumer, lifestyle changes in view of the maturing millennial generation, sprawl, and the environment.

Decentralization in shopping has come to the MetroEast, too. Sales volume at St Clair Square is down as retail relocated to more scattered and smaller destinations. Yet, the new trend does not mean more sales volume. The numbers and sales tax revenues are down from pre-recession numbers and cities, like Fairview Heights, are having to increase other taxes to make up the shortfalls.

Green Street Advisors forecasts 15% of existing malls will close in the next 10 years. In its 1/1/13 issue, Forbes magazine also discussed “The Coming Death of the American Shopping Mall.” Both economists presented solid and logical reasons why this will happen. Three of their reasons are significant.

First, some of a mall’s anchor businesses, like Sears and J C Penny, are having financial troubles and are closing stores as a result. Anchor businesses are not alone with poor sales. Smaller retailers, like Radio Shack, Sbarro’s, and Men’s Warehouse had, or are having, financial difficulties, too. At least four of the top 100 mall retailers/businesses, like Circuit City, Office Depot, and Border’s, went bankrupt and closed thousands of stores in the last few years.

Secondly, according to US Census Bureau data, since 2005 online shopping has nearly tripled, replacing a substantial portion of the mall shopping. Cyber Mondays are now in vogue with young and older shoppers. In 2013, online shopping was almost 8% of all retail sales by some estimates, and it might well rise in 2014.

Because major retailers find it economically efficient to have only one inventory rather than dozens or hundreds at mall stores, they are more than happy to offer online sales, often at prices which are lower than the in-store prices. That success was not lost on the Walmarts, Costco’s, Lowe’s and other big retailers, either. Most of them now offer online shopping. This trend is expected to continue as the younger, tech-savvy millennials and Gen Z shop.

Third, retail, and mall shopping in particular, will suffer not only because of the languishing economy and the “new normal” economy predicted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, but also because there is greater emphasis on buying (fewer and more expensive) American products. Consequently, retail dollars will not buy as many products.

All these add up to fewer road trips to go shopping.

To gauge the trend in the search for healthier lifestyles, one needs to assess the attitudes and preferences of the 70 million millennials who are actively engaged in that search. According to a study by the American Public Transportation Association, and bloggers at the Huffington Post, millennials are a tech savvy generation and use technology at a much greater rate to connect with their community. One survey showed that fully 26% of millennials said one of the things they saw in themselves and friends was “feeling like a better member of the community” through the use of technology devices. Though that might seem contradictory, they use social media as a satisfactory substitute for physical travel, so for them, there is no loss of the community connection. To the contrary, many youth suggest that the connection is actually strengthened as there is more time to connect, when compared to the time “wasted” using transportation to connect face-to-face.

That is not the only interesting development with millennials. They are more committed to the concept of sustainability in the broad sense. As consumers, they use promotions, coupons, and other cost-saving means and, as a result, have also become the fast-growing segment of the population to buy luxury goods. Their belief in sustainability means they buy environmentally friendly products—organic food, energy star electronics, and products from manufactures that are “socially responsible and …offer lower carbon footprints.”

Their attitudes towards family, home ownership, and suburban living are much different from older Americans, as well. Perhaps affected by the high divorce rates of their parents, millennials tend to marry later or not at all, opting for cohabitation. They do not generally believe having a family means moving to the suburbs or needing an automobile, either; specifically, only 30% of current millennial city-dwellers surveyed said they could envision a time when they would move to the suburbs.

On transportation issues, millennials understand the freedom and flexibility afforded by the car, but are willing to give up some of that freedom. Reasons offered include a car’s affordability, the availability of other alternatives which are better for the environment, and getting a better sense of community by living and traveling together (i.e., public transit). Millennials see far fewer occasions when the car is a significantly better choice than some other means of transportation. An International Transport Forum report in 2012 underscored that point with its observation “that per capita car use among young adults is down,” while use of public transportation is up. The forum report also noted that social media is replacing travel in any number of circumstances for both the young and not-so-young.

The most common times that a car would be preferable are when the weather is bad, when speed is essential, or for running errands (multiple stops). Beyond those few times, walking, biking, and public transport are acceptable alternatives. Indeed, of the more than 370,000 millennials surveyed, less than half expected to buy a car in the next 5 years.

Perhaps in response to these trends, it has become common for city planners to look at new development, as well as redevelopment, with an eye toward building places that can provide for that better, healthier lifestyle. The National Resources Defense Council describes such development in detail in their article, A Trip to Sustainaville. Their sustainable community puts an emphasis on preserving the land, the natural and cultural resources already in place, and providing multiple means of transportation. Sustainable communities tend to be more densely populated, offer public green spaces, and have mixed-use developments, making much of community life (schools, shopping, parks, etc.) within walking or bike-riding distance. In short, they offer what millennials are seeking.

Such communities exist in America already. Portland is often cited for its smart-growth, modern approach to urban living. Much of America’s future’s development, in both urban and non-urban areas, is expected to draw from Portland’s example. Belleville is moving in that direction, too. The city has actively changed its downtown to a more walkable one with outside seating for eating, more parking away from Main Street, and lofts for more and younger residents. The Scheel Street metro station has been suggested as a place to build a Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), another modern community plan. In its 2014 Comprehensive Plan, Belleville places an emphasis on infill of the existing community with both residential and commercial construction, which is expected to generate much of the city’s new growth.

Belleville is by no means unique in this regard. As early as 2006, the O’Fallon Comprehensive Plan recognized the relevance of smart growth principles. Several of the city’s stated development goals include “encouraging densities and mixed uses that support walking and non-motorized forms of transportation,” “create alternatives to vehicular roadway connections,” and recognizing the “economic value of the natural landscape…”

Ironically, the GC study used O’Fallon’s growth as one of its primary justifications, and at the same time puts an outer belt around Belleville. The conflict between the cities’ smart growth goals and the connector’s generation of added sprawl cannot be any more clear!

Other cities in this region are doing similar things to observe ‘smart growth” principles. East St Louis has Emerson Park and a new $100 million residential project in the works. St Louis City touts its Washington Street neighborhood where lofts prevail and where residents can walk to ball games, restaurants, and a vibrant nightlife, while able to access public transit to get farther out to parks, hospitals, and other entertainment venues.

Reversing Sprawl.

The automobile and cheap gasoline, steadily rising incomes, broadly distributed wealth, and cheap credit all combined to facilitate rapid sprawl in the latter half of the 20^th century. People with the means tried to capture the benefits of suburban living—better schools, lower crime, more space for play and bigger houses, and all at relatively low prices. But along with benefits came an inevitable down side. Cars were necessary to get around, agricultural land was used up, infrastructure costs went up, and the cost of public services got unsustainably high.

Why is sprawl reversing? For one thing, globalization reduced the job pool for American workers, so fewer and fewer people can afford the extra costs of the suburban lifestyle. For another, the boomer generation has begun the process of downsizing; they are curtailing the demand for large homes on big lots. In its place comes the demand for smaller, low/no maintenance, high density living arrangements.

There are fewer millennials interested in suburban living, and the ones who aim for the suburban lifestyle are generally only able to obtain starter homes. Finally, home-buying credit was changed a few years ago to prevent another housing melt-down. That limits the number of people who can afford any kind of a suburban home, let alone a big one. Taken together, these factors indicate an end to sprawling communities—and sooner rather than later.

According to a prediction from the University of Utah’s Dr. A. C. Nelson, demand for single-family homes, with large lots in the suburbs will drop from 79% of buyers in the year 2000 to 15% of buyers by 2030. He predicts demand for smaller, denser living—whether in the expanded city or denser suburbs--will take its place. He’s not alone in that expectation. Even the EWG highlighted an Urban Land Institute article predicting that the great places to live in the future are those which handle the changing the demographic, the shrinking money supply, and the dwindling natural resources.

That’s not all, either. Dr. Nelson reported on four other national studies, all of which found that (1) people are willing to pay more for walkable communities, and (2) fully 25% of Americans actually prefer to walk/bike to work. Perhaps part of this comes from a desire to regularly exercise and manage one’s health. Whatever the motivation, many Americans are finding that living in the suburbs and driving to the gym may not be the best lifestyle choice.

Another development expert, the writer Howard Kunstler , has been describing the eventual reversal of sprawl for a number of years. In his book, The Geography of Nowhere, he suggests that “sprawl is the greatest misappropriation of funds” that this country has ever allowed, and that contraction because of limited resources is inevitable. He notes that investment in sprawl not only puts limited resources to work in ways that harm the very things they are intended to enhance, but it also takes away opportunities to direct those limited resources to more productive endeavors. He was not talking about the GC, but he certainly described its circumstance well.

A majority of Americans have accepted the proposition that the climate is changing; many of them—notably the younger generations--also believe that it’s a problem for human existence, and adhere to the idea that global warming is accelerated from manmade air pollution (emission of greenhouse gases) and that it can be turned around. One of the major contributors to air pollution is auto emissions. That has lead to the manufacture of smaller cars, more complex pollution control devices, cleaner burning fuels (biodiesel, ethanol, etc.), and increased use of public transit. Each of these has contributed to lowering emissions, and also to a reduction in the number of vehicle miles driven.

This environmental concern is nowhere more evident than in the auto industry itself! In Jan 2010, the accounting firm of Deloitte and Touche, working in conjunction with Michigan State University, studied young consumers. They found four areas of strategic importance for marketing cars to them. Besides overall economic value, that group valued their own car’s impact on the environment. The study group found that the lack of emissions, not miles per gallon, was a major source of value to new buyers. Two of the recommended strategies were to use young people’s value of sustainability and green technology in marketing campaigns, and to better define hybrid technology.

A second concern is the future availability of fossil fuels. Not only are they primary contributors to atmospheric pollution, but as the supply diminishes, fuel prices will rise. Demand for fossil fuels will ebb, as well. That has been proved in Europe, where fuel prices have been quite high for decades. Even as we develop new sources of fossil fuel, the concern remains. Rapid price increases in the past (most notably in the 1970’s) resulted in measurable reductions in vehicle miles travelled. The trend toward less driving due to environmental concerns is expected to continue.

Baby boomers in the US started retiring in 2008 and will continue to so for the next 15 years. Research by the Victoria Transport Policy Institute, released in Nov 2013, showed that as retirees age, they drive less and less until they drive only half as much as they did when they were working. It’s also particularly important to note that baby boomers have been more intrigued by the automobile than subsequent generations, so their driving reduction will have an especially significant effect. Demographics for the MetroEast show that people here are actually older than the nationwide average. That means per capita mileage will decrease faster in this region than within the country at large.

More to the point, of the 30% increase in population by 2040, a huge percentage will be in the group over 65—those driving less! As people live longer, 40% of those dying between now and 2040 will be replaced by other elderly, while only 60% will be replaced by new births.

Not only does this imply less miles driven and less demand for roadways, it underscores the change in the kind of housing that will be built in the next 30 years—smaller and more densely packed—as was discussed in the previous section of this paper. Dr. Nelson even extends the implications to commercial real estate, suggesting that it will largely be redevelopment and not new development. Both of these trends mean less need for highway expansion.

At the same time, the increase in VMT as younger drivers age is much less than it was when boomers first started driving. This phenomenon reduces the per capita miles driven even more. It could be argued that the expected 1%+/- annual increase in population would overcome that reduction, but it does not. Besides, that’s only one of the many reasons that road use will decline in the future. Others were covered our discussion of Transportation Mobility in Chapter 2, Feasibility Study.

The International Transport Forum report notes that working people use cars for commuting, whereas students do not generally need cars while attending college. Therefore, with a larger and larger segment of the population in school for longer periods, and fewer and fewer people in the work force, car usage is going to diminish. That influence can be observed in the St Louis region.

One of the results of the poor economy and the US’ ever-changing educational system is the significant increase in the number of young people remaining in school. Two forces push today’s youth into extended learning: There is a perception that a high school education is no longer sufficient to survive in today’s tech-heavy society, and most of those who get college degrees will earn substantially more money in their lifetime. That is now being revealed as something of a myth, as schools pump out more graduates than there are jobs for them, but the fact remains that young people stay in school longer.

There are more thousands who enter post-graduate work for just that reason, perhaps thinking that graduate school might give them a better chance and that the job market will bounce back in the interim. Older adults often find they have to enter remedial training programs because the jobs they had have disappeared.

One potentially devastating effect is that student debt is at an all-time high—over $1 trillion nationally. As education costs continue to rise, young and old alike will be forced to adjust their eventual lifestyle according to that debt. For millions of millennials, their affluence will be permanently affected. In turn, that eventuaity has an influence on living arrangements and transportation demand.

Education is a big business in the St Louis region, and the MetroEast, in particular, with a large percentage of adults still in post-secondary schools, either continuing their education or retraining.

Population Growth Predictions

Not only is the population aging, but the rate of its growth is slowing, as well. While the US Census Bureau predicts the global rate of population increase is going to drop from 1% today to 0.5% by 2050, they also predict the US growth rate could even drop to -0.1% (net contraction) by 2050, depending upon international migration activity. That’s consistent with a Millikin Institute presentation in a 2012 international conference in London; they also predicted that the US and other developed countries may experience a negative population growth rate by 2050. If true, the US will never reach 1 Billion people, but that population may fall after reaching 500 million people around the year 2070.

The most likely scenario according to the census bureau, however, is that the growth rate will drop to around 0.47%. Their most recent report showed that the US population growth rate was 0.71% in 2013—the lowest in 75 years (since the period between the Great Depression and WWII). If unchanged, that growth rate would put the US population around 400 million by 2050.

Another University of Utah study showed where those people would live. Their assessment is that 10 megapolitan regions will evolve, and that the share of the total US population would increase in each of them. Since the St Louis region is not one of the ten, its share will drop, implying that growth over the next 35 years will be minimal.

That assessment is consistent with Brookings Institutes expectation that urban areas will continue to grow and become the focus for much of the new transportation infrastructure. It is also consistent with EWG’s observation about the St Louis region--that “growth in the region lagging far behind anticipated growth in the rest of the country.” That prediction followed the observation that its 30-year growth rate (1970-2000) was 0.1% for the region, compared to 0.82% (or 8 times higher!) for the rest of the country.

The Utah model described growth along the two coasts, in Texas and Colorado, the Great Lakes, and the southwest. While the St Louis region was identified, owing to its relative size today, its importance as a population center in the future diminishes over time; and by the end of the study period in 2100, the St Louis region is just another part of the broad Midwest.

The only reasonable conclusion one can draw from the current literature, including the US Census Bureau’s forecasts, is that the St Louis region will have less demand for new infrastructure than the rest of the country well into the future.

Given the state of roads and bridges in the rest of the country, it makes sense to fund their higher priority projects ahead of this region’s “desired,” but not “needed” ones.

Employment Trends

Telecommuting

There are a couple of significant trends that have directly added to the reduction of miles traveled in America. One of them is the increased number of people telecommuting. A study by the US Public Interest Research Group, published in Dec 2013, noted that in every one of the top 100 cities, there was an increase in the number of workers working from home, while in 99 of those 100 cities, there was a decrease in the number of people commuting to work.

It’s estimated that 4.3% of the work force telecommutes to work. The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that 24% of all workers report working some hours from home each week. And there’s clearly a capacity for telecommuting to grow. The NY Times recently reported that number could reach 30%, depending on how one defines telecommuting

Despite the slow growth in telecommuting, and a fairly limited number of industries in which it makes economic sense (finance, technology, telemarketing, etc), there is still a trend toward more such work. Most experts believe what’s holding down expansion is management’s fears of losing direct control of its workers. That’s due in part to experiences like those at Yahoo, where employees took advantage of the absence of control. But, some people expect that once Yahoo employees correct that behavior, its president, Marissa Mayer, may reverse her decision and allow employees to move their office back into the home.

A number of surveys found that home-based employees worked more, produced more, and were happier than those doing the same work at a business site. Dinah Brin, freelancing for the Society of Human Resources Management, writes that a growing number of Human Resources directors believe as they identify employees who are productive without supervision, and when employees learn the benefits of telecommuting, companies will expand that segment of the work force. According to Meghan Biro’s article on Forbes.com, telecommuting is the future of work.

The St Louis region promotes its technology sector as one of the growing segments; it’s in that segment where much of the telecommuting is taking place. The implication is that stresses on highway driving will diminish in the future. The same can be extended to the MetroEast.

There are a number of other factors, besides telecommuting, that have contributed to a reduction of miles driven to work. One was the effort to fit a 40-hour work week into four 10-hour days. There are still places that do that. As in Europe, where the 4-day work week and 35-hour work weeks are common, US workers will find they have less demand to get to work.

Another factor is the advancement of technology and its application to business situations. As far back as 1965, the US Congress noted that productivity and technology improvements might enable workers to cut their work week from 40 hours to 14 hours by 2000. Obviously, American businesses are far from that, though external forces are still causing the average work week to fall. For example, the Affordable Care Act not only redefined “full time” from 40 hours to 30 hours, but one unintended consequence was to cause many employers to further reduce workers’ hours below 30.

The Macroeconomic View

Since the economic recovery began in 2009, disproportionate shares of the jobs created were either low-paying or part time. The slow recovery of the American manufacturing industry, the political impasse affecting both sides of the energy industry, and global economic competition affecting labor signal slow and weak economic growth in the future.

That’s the view of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In Dec 2013 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, the bureau published its outlook for the next 10 years. They envision a “new normal” economy, which characteristics include decreasing labor participation rates; a permanency in the structural change in the labor market which eliminated many skilled, high-paying jobs; slow-growing productivity; and more reliance on service sector jobs.

There is uncertainty in their predictions, owing to some of the underlying assumptions, which we would call optimistic. They expect renewed growth in construction and health care jobs and reinvestment of money that has been kept overseas to support future growth. They also note that their model assumes full employment by 2022, an optimistic view by their own admission. Uncertainty also comes from the expectation that trade deficits will decrease, as we export more goods.

The picture of the American economic future is not great, and it’s a bit fuzzy. The experts are cautiously optimistic, understandably so, because while Japan and Europe are on the edge of recessions, the US economy lumbers along a upward route.

The message for transportation planners in the St Louis region is not to do too much, too fast, and not to expect a sudden expansion of the population or the economy.

It is often said that “If we build it, they will come.” The St Clair County Board chairman used that idiom in a speech March 5, 2014 at the opening of the new Mississippi River Bridge and again at the opening of America’s Central Port in Granite City. However, numerous scholarly studies, like those discussed below, show that is not generally the case. When built for no reason except to stimulate growth, any growth follows long afterwards, if ever. Unfortunately for the St Louis area, community leaders seem to adhere to the myth to their constituents’ detriment.

The cause and effect relationship does seem to work the other way around, though. “If they come, we will build it” does produce mutually beneficial results. So, proponents of new infrastructure should be looking for businesses to locate first, then provide those businesses only the infrastructure necessary to accommodate their specific and immediate needs. That approach paid off for the communities that followed it.

Although studies disprove the claim that highways create growth, citizens often view new highways, including outer belts as “beneficial.” Such was one of the Rand Corporation’s findings in a 2011 study. That dichotomy may explain why developers and politicians continue to push new roads, often exaggerating claims about the resulting economic expansion and the number of jobs it creates to ridiculous levels. People either don’t understand the reality and believe a perception instead, or are too apathetic to care.

A few people may even judge the entire benefit in selfish terms, realizing they might save a couple of minutes of commute time. Such was the case with Mark Kern, St Clair County Board Chairman, who, on Feb 9, 2009, told our representatives that he could drive past IL15, get on a GC highway and arrive in South County, MO a few minutes faster! That the GC design would take him on a longer, and probably slower trip did not seem to occur to him.

Citizens for Smart Growth: Stop158 want reality of the situation, not the perception or personal benefit, to dictate what the elected leaders and representatives do. We suspect few people would support government investment when it might fall into the category of “wasteful spending.”