Jackson Vanik will pass – bipartisan support of congress and interest groups gives momentum
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- Russia matters – even though its declined
- Russia is influential throughout Eurasia—Russian cooperation solves the case and Russian opposition turns it
at: russia weakRussia can hurt the US even if they’re weaker than usAllison and Blackwill, 11 – * director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School AND ** Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (Graham and Robert, “Russia and U.S. National Interests Why Should Americans Care?”, Task Force on Russia and U.S. National Interests Report, October 2011) http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Russia-and-US-NI_final-web.pdf Russia is grappling with the contradictions between imperial nostalgia, on the one hand, and the dramatic decline in its power after the Soviet collapse, on the other. The Russian government’s failure to present a credible plan to reverse Russia’s decline or to develop a successful foreign policy strategy that strengthens the country’s international role makes this only more difficult and contributes to a sense of insecurity. Nevertheless, the United States has the opportunity to manage its relations with an evolving Russia in a manner that advances America’s vital national interests. The stakes are high. Russia is more than sufficiently powerful to create a host of costly—and even devastating—problems for the United States if Russian leaders believe that Washington has a hostile, or casual, disregard for Russian national interests and priorities. This is true even though most in Russia’s elite recognize that today’s Russia is not sufficiently strong to challenge American global leadership without the support of other major powers. Russia matters – even though its declinedO’Brien-Bours 10/19 (Robinson O’Brien-Bours, “Russian Reset and Reform,” 10/19/12) http://nlt.ashbrook.org/2011/10/russian-reset-and-reform.php The Russian Federation does not wield the type of tremendous power and influence in world affairs that its predecessor, the Soviet Union, held. It has not been able to keep up with the rapid economic advancements of the West, China, India, Japan, and Brazil. It has found itself increasingly vulnerable, and has lashed out sometimes to try and reassert itself--the most blatant incident being the invasion of Georgia a few years ago. Nonetheless, though its infrastructure is decaying and economy looking even more hopeless than ours in the near future, Russia remains a massively important country, not least because it is still the only country on the planet that poses an existential threat to the United States--Russia alone maintains the firepower necessary to destroy us. Additionally, the borders it shares with foreign countries, its veto-wielding seat on the UN Security Council, and the reserves of resources that it sits on and sells to Europe make it important. Thus, while many outside of Eastern Europe have seen fit to sort of discount Russia and just led it slide along its merry way to decline, we ought to be focusing a great deal on our former adversaries and what is happening within their borders. Russian weakness doesn’t matter—cooperation is still useful in the context of international organizations - this is especially true for military presenceWALLANDER AND RUMER 3 (Eugene B. Rumer and Celeste A. Wallander- Eugene B. Rumer is a senior fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University (NDU). Celeste A. Wallander is director of the Russia and Eurasia Program and the Trustee Fellow at CSIS, Washington Quarterly, Winter) Russia retains a great deal of influence in the international arena by virtue of its institutional memberships. As the United States continues to wage the war on terrorism in many theaters and fora, a constructive Russian stance on issues ranging from the U.S. military presence in Central Asia to Security Council deliberations about Iraq is far more preferable to obstructionism. To that end, Russia can prove a useful diplomatic partner even if Russian consent is no longer necessary for a country, particularly the United States, to achieve its objectives, whatever they may be, and even if Russia's status as a global power continues to decline. Russia is influential throughout Eurasia—Russian cooperation solves the case and Russian opposition turns itWALLANDER AND RUMER 3 (Eugene B. Rumer and Celeste A. Wallander- Eugene B. Rumer is a senior fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University (NDU). Celeste A. Wallander is director of the Russia and Eurasia Program and the Trustee Fellow at CSIS, Washington Quarterly, Winter) Russia's geopolitical presence gives it influence throughout Eurasia and importance in U.S. policy in the region. Russia can be influential by working with the United States on policy initiatives, such as herding North Korea into six-party talks or eliminating the Taliban in Afghanistan. At the same time, Russia can be influential insofar as its support for countries can undercut U.S. policies, such as Russian sales of nuclear technology and conventional military arms to Iran. The "Russia card" can give some leaders in Eurasia political and diplomatic options that make them less susceptible to U.S. influence, as is the case with Ukraine's Leonid Kuchma, Belarus's Aleksandr Lukashenka, and Turkmenistan's Saparmurat Niyazov. n5 In sum, even if Russia does not have usable military power to bring to bear as a source of influence, geopolitics has provided Russia a diplomatic presence in Eurasia that others, including the United States, need to take into account. Finally, Russia's institutional memberships enhance its government's weight in international affairs. Russia remains the only country that negotiates and signs nuclear strategic arms control treaties with the United States. Similarly, Russia's views on European security are advanced by virtue of its importance for maintaining and possibly adapting the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, which establishes strict limits on its signatories' conventional arsenals and their deployment. Russia is present at the table of the world's major powers whenever G-8 ministers and heads of state gather. Russian participation in the G-8 informal club of leading industrialized nations -- a modern-day version of the nineteenth-century European concert of great powers -- gives it further political clout and prestige in the international community at large, as well as in the post-Soviet space where it alone has achieved full G-8 membership. Most importantly, Russia remains one of five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the handful of UN members capable of single-handedly preventing Security Council decisions and whose support and approval must be secured to pass resolutions. 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