  DECEMBER
16
28
27
IS claims killing of eight MNJTF coalition forces in Lake Chad area
Niger announces amnesty program as 31 Boko Haram militants surrender in Diffa
New Shekau video disputes army claim that last militant stronghold captured in Sambisa Forest
Current Situation
IS claims military ambushes in Yobe State, Lake Chad area
Islamic State (IS) claimed two incidents over the past month, namely the alleged killing of eight Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) coalition troops near Lake Chad on December 23 and another four Nigerian soldiers in Yobe State on December 23. We assess this pattern is likely to continue despite broader counterinsurgency defeats, with IS claiming intermittent attacks by its Lake-Chad based al-Barnawi faction against military targets, rather than the civilian villages and suicide bombings favored by the Abubakar Shekau faction in and around the Sambisa Forest.
|
New Shekau video undermines army’s Sambisa Forest claims
Shekau’s video mocks army claims from December 21 that it had captured all Boko Haram strongholds in the Sambisa Forest, and retrieved Shekau’s Koran and IS flag after his retreat. While Shekau has undoubtedly been seriously weakened by ‘Operation Lafiya Doyle’ and Boko Haram’s fragmentation, his fighters still pose a threat as they regroup, and Shekau’s successive videos following army claims of his death continue to undermine the veracity of the authorities’ counterinsurgency narrative.
|
Niger launches amnesty program for Boko Haram
Niger’s Minister of Interior announced the program on December 28 where he met 31 former militants who had voluntarily surrendered in Diffa town. This marks a shift in strategy made possible by MNJTF counterinsurgency gains in Niger, although such a program faces major hurdles such as financing, given that many recruits joined Boko Haram for financial rather than ideological reasons. However, the 31 surrenders reflects Boko Haram’s struggle to provide payment and basic provisions since the MNJTF have ramped up counterinsurgency operations and cut supply lines from Cameroon.
|
IS claims killing of 8 MNJTF coalition forces in Lake Chad area
| CAR |
|
Extreme Risk
|
NOTABLE DATES
| Current Situation
DECEMBER
6
20
12
22 people allegedly killed in clashes between FPRC, UPC factions, 15 km north of Bambari
At least five killed in fresh intra ex-Seleka clashes in Ouaka Prefecture
Recently formed ‘3R’ Fulani armed group accused of killings, large scale displacement in northwest region
Assessments & Forecast
Control over mining routes triggers intra-ex-Seleka clashes in northeast as ‘3R’ militia emerges as new destabilizing actor in northwest
While the county’s capital Bangui has remained isolated from security related incidents in recent weeks, confirming the lull on large–scale sectarian violence in the country, the month of December witnessed continued militia violence in the northeast and northwest regions of the country. Notably, clashes broke out between different ex-Seleka factions, namely the mainly Fulani Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC) and the Popular Front for the Central African Renaissance (FPRC) in and around Bambari, Ouaka Prefecture. Violence between ex-Seleka factions is rare, and the trigger was control over the forced taxation along mining and herding routes. Given the continued lack of security infrastructure in the area, coupled with the lucrative character of these activities in a context of endemic poverty and an overall security vacuum, we assess that similar clashes are likely to be witnessed in this area over the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, a report was issued by a prominent international human rights organization on December 20 accusing the “Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation” (3R) Fulani armed group of killings, displacement and other human rights violations in the northwestern Mbomou and Ouham prefectures. The formation of the group was mainly attributed to the protection of the Muslim Fulani population from forced displacements and attacks by mainly Christian anti-Balaka elements, highlighting how sectarian tensions may drive the formation of armed groups in the CAR. However, as with other armed militias elsewhere in the country, these fighters tend to act more as criminal elements than with political or ethnic motivations, exploiting the absence of security forces to engage in looting of local villagers. These deeply entrenched patterns of instability are unlikely to change in the near future, pointing to continued militia-related violence in the northwest and other outlying regions of the CAR.
|
Share with your friends: |
