Joint wmo technical progress report on the global data processing and forecasting system and numerical weather prediction research activities for 2015

As MOS Systems for ICON and ECMWF are operational, a system to statistically optimize and calibrate ensemble data is currently in development. The new EnsembleMOS system is enhanced for the special requirements and application of ensemble models such as COSMO-DE-EPS and EZMWF-EPS (later ICON-EPS as well). Based on the WarnMOS setup with a new logistic regression approach it is prepared to provide statistically optimized and calibrated probabilistic forecasts as input for AutoWARN (see above).

The postprocessing system ADWICE forecasts and diagnoses the atmospheric aircraft icing between surface and FL 360.The microphysics scheme of COSMO-EU/ICON has been modified in 2015 to improve the prediction of supercooled liquid water (SLW). Aim of this work was to extent the usage of SLW prediction within the ADWICE framework to improve aircraft icing prognosis. SLW was strongly underpredicted by the COSMO-EU/ICON model und therefore ADWICE did not rely on the model SLW prediction but uses its own parameterisation (parcel model). Results show, that there is a slight improvement of icing forecasts using the modified SLW. However, the parcel method still needs to be used in combination with SLW model output.

Furthermore, a global setup of ADWICE forecasts with ICON numerical model data has been tested and is expected to get operational in October 2016.

Current work focuses on development of forecasts for aircraft icing risk in addition to icing intensity level and scenario.

Figure 2: Example for a global icing intensity level forecast (maximum in column) with ADWICE on ICON: Light (green), Moderate (yellow) and Severe (red) icing.