Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e13 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
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Estimation results for projected development in the car density against GDP per capita and in the number of ELVs in Ankara using above framework are given in Table 8. 5.2. Scenario analysis Amount of ELVs is rising rapidly in Turkey as throughout the world due to the increasing population, trend of consumption and number of vehicles on roads. In order to analyze the behavior of the model in the future, quantified developments in the number of ELVs obtained by the procedure given in the previous section is used. We analyzed the sensitivity of the solutions to the changes in the amount of ELVs supplied from the ELV sources to gain a better sense of the proposed model. We used the projection of the number of ELVs from 2012 to 2022 and generated eleven different scenarios of the problem. We solved the proposed recovery network design problem for these scenarios and analyzed the results. Eleven different scenarios of the problem for the years 2012e2022 and predicted number of ELVs for Ankara are given in Table 9. The projections show that the number of ELVs for Ankara is likely to increase approximately 32,000 ELVs between 2011 and 2022. It is obvious that this situation will increase the waste gen-eration and deteriorate the environmental and economical effects of ELVs in the future. GAMS-CPLEX is used for comprehension of proposed model behavior via increasing number of ELVs in the future. Optimum solutions for the base case in year 2011 and years 2012e2022 are summarized in Table 10. Observe from the Table 10 that the highest CPU time require-ment is about 55 min. On the average, the model is solved in about 13 min with all of the scenarios to optimality. The number of fa-cilities to be located and the system cost increase while the number of ELVs are getting higher in the future. Only one of the dismantlers (24th) which is located in Yenimahalle district is to be opened in the scenarios until 2015, while seven dismantlers are to be opened in the year of 2022. One of the shredders (8th) located in Kocaeli province is to be opened until 2020 and two of the shredders are to be opened after this year. Other shredder (9th) to be opened in 2020, 2021 and 2022 is also located in Kocaeli. The relation  
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