Lecture 2 Load forecasting


Some driving parameters may be ineffective or ignored for each of the above categories. For instance



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Lecture 2

Some driving parameters may be ineffective or ignored for each of the above categories. For instance,

  • GDP may have strong effects on LTLF; while ineffective in STLF.
  • TV programmes are effective in STLF but ineffective in LTLF
  • Load Models

    • Additive model that takes the form of predicting load as the function of four components:
      • L = Ln + Lw + Ls + Lr
    • Multipliative model that takes the form of predicting load as the function of four components:
      • L = Ln x Lw x Ls x Lr

    The “normal” part of the load, which is a set of standardized load shapes for each “type” of day that has been identified as occurring throughout the year,

    Ln

    The weather sensitive part of the load,



    Lw

    special event component that create a substantial deviation from the usual load pattern

    Ls

    completely random term, the noise



    Lr

    Suggested electricity pricing as an additional term that can be included in the model.



    Lc

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