weather normalization factor that is a ratio of the peak load to the load that would be observed under average peak conditions. The duration of this period varies from one utility to another. Most companies take the last 25-30 years of data, at a high level, the traditional weather normalization process includes two steps:
Apply the model to a normal weather to obtain the load under normal weather.
Many parameters in this process would affect the results of weather normalization, such as the frequency of the input data to model the relationship between load and temperature, and Cross-validation in the modeling stage.
For the next year peak forecast, it is possible to provide the probability distribution of the load based on historical weather observations, which would take place for average annual peak weather conditions or worse than average peak weather conditions for a given area.
