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- Recent studies show that regeneration solves.
- --- XT: Deforestation Impact Answers
- Those flawed studies informed flawed models – current rates are sustainable.
- No impact to forests
1nc Deforestation Impact AnswersDoesn’t cause significant species loss in forests and solves overpopulation.Agarwal, 3 Ranjan K. Agarwal. (University of Ottawa). "Forest Preservation of." 2003. http://www.idebate.org/debatabase/topic_details.php?topicID=205 The environmental effects of deforestation are exaggerated and, in any event, are irrelevant to developing countries. Some scientists estimate that deforestation, if continued at its current pace, will only reduce species in tropical forests by 5-10% in the next 30 years. For developing countries, there is the belief that rapid deforestation and rapid development are linked. Indonesia subsidizes its forest industry through export taxes. The revenue from commercial logging is substantial. Further, in Brazil and Indonesia, there are programs promoting migration from heavily populated urban centres to deforested areas. Without this migration, Bali, Java and Brazil’s coastal areas would become unbearably overpopulated. Recent studies show that regeneration solves.Elmqvist et. Al., 7 Thomas Elmqvist (Department of Systems Ecology at Stolkholm University). Markku Pyykonin. (Stockholm Resilience Centre) and Maria Tengo (Department of Biology and Plant Ecology at the University of Antananarivo). "Patterns of Loss and Regeneration of Tropical Dry Forest in Madagascar: The Social Institutional Context." Plos One. 2007. http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1853233 Loss of tropical forests and changes in land-use/land-cover are of growing concern worldwide. Although knowledge exists about the institutional context in which tropical forest loss is embedded, little is known about the role of social institutions in influencing regeneration of tropical forests. In the present study we used Landsat images from southern Madagascar from three different years (1984, 1993 and 2000) and covering 5500 km2, and made a time-series analysis of three distinct large-scale patterns: 1) loss of forest cover, 2) increased forest cover, and 3) stable forest cover. Institutional characteristics underlying these three patterns were analyzed, testing the hypothesis that forest cover change is a function of strength and enforcement of local social institutions. The results showed a minor decrease of 7% total forest cover in the study area during the whole period 1984–2000, but an overall net increase of 4% during the period 1993–2000. The highest loss of forest cover occurred in a low human population density area with long distances to markets, while a stable forest cover occurred in the area with highest population density and good market access. Analyses of institutions revealed that loss of forest cover occurred mainly in areas characterized by insecure property rights, while areas with well-defined property rights showed either regenerating or stable forest cover. The results thus corroborate our hypothesis. The large-scale spontaneous regeneration dominated by native endemic species appears to be a result of a combination of changes in precipitation, migration and decreased human population and livestock grazing pressure, but under conditions of maintained and well-defined property rights. Our study emphasizes the large capacity of a semi-arid system to spontaneously regenerate, triggered by decreased pressures, but where existing social institutions mitigate other drivers of deforestation and alternative land-use. --- XT: Deforestation Impact AnswersDeforestation numbers are exaggerated – based on flawed studies.Ben-Ami, 6 Daniel Ben-Ami. "Deforestation exaggerated" Nov. 14. 2006. http://www.danielbenami.com/2006/11/deforestation-exaggerated.html An international team of researchers has found that the trend towards deforestation is not as bad a previously assumed. The news is important as deforestation is one of the main sources of global greenhouse emissions (classified in the Stern report as part of “land use”). An article on the BBC website says that the team used a new technique which measures timber volumes, biomass and captured carbon, rather than just land areas covered by trees. Its findings will be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, an American journal: “the researchers found that forest stocks had actually expanded over the past 15 years in 22 of the world's 50 most forested nations. “They also showed increases in biomass and carbon storage capacity in about half of the 50 countries. Those flawed studies informed flawed models – current rates are sustainable.Due and Schroeder, 2k Vigdis Broch Due and Richard A Schroeder. Producing Nature and Poverty in Africa. 2000. http://books.google.com/books?id=PUwYrkiKZzwC Indeed, drawing together evidence from the two cases presented in this essay and the other countries we have studied (Fairhead and Leach 1998), we calculate that deforestation during the twentieth century has been significantly exaggerated across a large part of West Africa. As table 3 summarizes, it may well be the only about a third of the figures used by international organizations and climatologists such as Zheng and Eltahir (1997) cited at the beginning of this essay. Cassandra is using poor data for her predictions. It also seems likely that 1900-1920 was a high point in forest cover in several countries (certainly in Ghana and perhaps also in Cote D'Ivoire) following the decline of earlier farming populations. Forest loss might therefore appear as even less were it possible to take an earlier baseline. As each of the cases exemplifies in different ways, the history of West African forests is long, involving phases of peopling, management, depopulation, and the repopulation. Taylor's concern with European forest history is certainly pertinent to African conditions: The idea of great areas of primeval woodland, whose clearance in Saxon medieval and even later times which is such a feature of Professor Hoskins' work and is still repeated endlessly today, continues to mislead us. We shall never understand the history of the English landscape until we remove from our minds the concept of primeval woodland that our prehistoric ancestors had largely removed from the landscape by 1000 B.C. (Taylor 1988 in Hoskins 1955/1988:8). Exaggerated claims of deforestation have misled ecologists. They obscure how far present forest ecology and composition may reflect less "nature and its degradation", than real histories of climatic fluctuations in interaction with past land management. In West Africa in particular, claims of one-way deforestation have completely obscured what seems to have been a large increase in the area of the forest zone in recent centuries. Exaggerated estimates of deforestation on this scale will also mislead regional and global climatic modeling. Exaggerated estimates of deforestation have other, more nefarious consequences. They obscure appreciation of how farmers may have been enriching and managing their landscapes in sustainable ways. They obscure the historical experience of inhabitants and the origins of their claims to land. They obscure locality as it has been lived and is understood by those living it. And most significantly exaggerated rates of forest loss have often unjustly supported draconian environmental policies that further impoverish people in what is already a poor region. No impact to forestsLomborg 01 (Bjørn, director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, Danish author, academic, “The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World,” Cambridge University Press, originally published in Danish in 1998) There are two primary reasons for viewing the tropical forests as a vital resource. In the 1970s we were told that rainforests were the lungs of the Earth. Even in July 2000, WWF argued for saving the Brazilian Amazon since “the Amazon region has been called the lungs of the world.” But this is a myth. True enough, plants produce oxygen by means of photosynthesis, but when they die and decompose, precisely the same amount of oxygen is consumed. Therefore, forests in equilibrium (where trees grow but old trees fall over, keeping the total biomass approximately constant) neither produce nor consume oxygen in net terms. Even if all plants, on land as well as at sea, were killed off and then decomposed, the process would consume less than 1 percent of the atmosphere’s oxygen. The other argument in favor of preserving the forests is to conserve the globe’s profusion of species, or the biodiversity. We will look into this argument in chapter 23. In short it can be said that over the next 50 years we will not lose 50 percent of all species as claimed by many, but more like 0.7 percent. One cannot generally argue that these species constitute an actual economic resource (along the lines that they may constitute new and potentially vital medicines) but we may well hold moral reasons for their preservation. At the same time, numerous false impressions exist regarding the condition of our forests. Most people believe that over the last 50 years we have wiped out large swathes of rainforest, and perhaps temperate forest as well. Statements such as the one from the WWF quoted above naturally help to cement this idea. But as we have pointed out, there has not been a fall in global forest area during this period. On the other hand, Europe got rid of a large proportion of its forest by the end of the Middle Ages in order to make room for farming and bigger populations. 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