MSc thesis research proposal Department of Geography McGill University Identifying the Role of Crop Production in Land Cover Change in Brazil since 1990
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PRELIMINARY RESULTSObjective 1: According to the results of a preliminary analysis, eight major crops (soybean, maize, sugarcane, rice, beans, cassava, wheat and sorghum) account for 94% of all crop harvested area in Brazil in 2005. (Fig.5). Soybean crops account for 40.7%, almost half of the total crop area, followed by Maize with 20.5%, sugarcane with 10.3% and the other crops the remainder. 
At this stage, the creation of a spatial series of maps, it is possible to determine the predominant crops in four time periods (1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005) as well as the change in distribution of different crops, percentage of area and percentage of total cultivated area. (see Annex I). For instance, in 1990 the results highlight maize and soybean as the most predominant crops in Brazil followed by beans, sugarcane, rice and cassava (map 1). In 1995, there was a slight expansion of crops such as beans and rice, whereas maize and soybean continued to be the most dominant crops (map 2). In 2000 the results show soybeans as the most predominant crops and also an expansion in sugarcane area. These findings are in contrast to other crops like maize, beans and rice that began to decline in their area (map 3). Between 2000 and 2005 soybean cultivated area had a remarkable growth more than that of any other crop, and sugarcane has continued in area expansion (map 4). The geographical data compiled shows the most significant changes that occurred between 1990 and 2005, as well as the municipalities that present the largest area under cultivation. A comparison between 1990 and 2005 revealed different patterns of change. Crops such as rice show a relative reduction in area (3.94 to 3.91 million hectares) and the maps illustrate a major shift northward into Mato Grosso, Para and out of Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Parana (maps 5 and 6). In the case of beans, the results show a decrease in area between these two periods (4.6 to 3.7 million hectares) and their area cultivated in states of Sao Paulo and Goias show a significant reduction (maps 7 and 8). In contrast, crops such as sugarcane had an increase in area (4.2 to 5.8 million hectares) with expansion concentrated mostly in the state of Sao Paulo (maps 9 and 10). Soybean has a striking increase in cultivated area with almost a doubling in relative size from 11.4 to 22.9 million hectares. In particular this expansion occurred in the Center West region (Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias) (maps 11 and 12). To continue the analysis of the previous spatial patterns, as a preliminary analysis I compared absolute change and change in percentage of total harvested area between 1990 and 2005 for soybean and sugarcane initially. In the case of soybean, the results show that the most significant changes have occurred in the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, and Tocantins with the highest increased rates of the total cultivated area (maps 13 and 14). In the case of sugarcane the results show that the changes in cultivated area occurred in Sao Paulo state particularly, with an increased percentages of harvested area compared with the total crops area between 1990 and 2005 (maps 15 and 16) (see Annex I). Objective 2 The results show that since the mid-1990s China started to import soybean from Brazil and now is the world’s leading importer of Brazilian soybean. Other main importers are European Union countries: Netherlands, Germany, Spain and United Kingdom (Fig. 6). 
A preliminary analysis, based only on soybean trade data, underestimates total soy production for export, this analysis need to be complement with soybean products information, but nevertheless shows that since 1990 most of the soybean production is designated for export rather than domestic use (Fig. 7). 
Fig 7: Estimated soybean exports vs. Domestic. Download 350.04 Kb. Share with your friends:
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