Negative Privacy Advantage
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- No econ decline war---best and most recent data
- Econ resilient, US isn’t key, and impact empirically denied
- Even massive economic decline has zero chance of war
- Drones for business trade off with employment
AT: EconomyDrone economy already growing illegally and newly proposed FAA regulations will only spur things forwardBarr and Weise 13 (Alistair Barr and Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY reporters. “Underground drone economy takes flight” USA TODAY, December 2, 2013. http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/12/02/underground-drone-economy/3805387/) "There are many people out there making extraordinary amounts of money," says Gene Robinson, who uses drones to help authorities with search and rescue missions. "You can even get liability insurance to operate now."¶ While the Federal Aviation Administration hasn't yet drafted regulations for the futuristic unmanned devices and limits their commercial use, some players have already plunged in:¶ Real estate specialist Manie Kohn uses drones to video luxury properties. Terence Reis flies them to photograph surfers. Brad Mathson monitors farmland in the Dakotas, while Ryan Kunde uses a drone to improve production at his vineyard.¶ Bezos thrust drones into the spotlight when he talked about his plans to use them to deliver packages on 60 Minutes Sunday night. But thanks to drones' ability to shoot aerial photos and video steadily and collect other data cheaply, they are already being used in many sectors, including movie making, sports, mining, oil and gas production and construction.¶ Most of the activity is outside the U.S. because of regulatory uncertainty. But there are a lot of U.S. drone operators who are either hobbyists, or who provide drone services for free or in return for donations. Business owners can also operate their own drones for their own benefit. And at times, money changes hands out of the FAA's gaze. "I walk down the street and see drone dollars everywhere," says Patrick Egan, a drone consultant who heads the Silicon Valley chapter of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, or AUVSI, a lobbying group for the industry. "The potential is huge, and thousands of people are already flying them around the U.S. making money."¶ Once the FAA drafts its drone regulations, integrating the devices into U.S. airspace could boost the economy by at least $13.6 billion in the first three years and the economic benefit may top $82 billion between 2015 and 2025, the AUVSI estimated earlier this year. It could also create more than 70,000 new jobs, including 34,000 manufacturing positions, in the first three years, the group forecast. In 10 years, it projects 100,000 jobs will be added.¶ Egan says those numbers don't account for the impact of future regulation, focused on safety and privacy, which could increase the cost of operating drones and reduce the value of the technology.¶ Despite such uncertainty, the commercial potential of drones has attracted big investors. No econ decline war---best and most recent dataDaniel W. Drezner 12, Professor, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, October 2012, “The Irony of Global Economic Governance: The System Worked,” http://www.globaleconomicgovernance.org/wp-content/uploads/IR-Colloquium-MT12-Week-5_The-Irony-of-Global-Economic-Governance.pdf The final outcome addresses a dog that hasn’t barked: the effect of the Great Recession on cross-border conflict and violence. During the initial stages of the crisis, multiple analysts asserted that the financial crisis would lead states to increase their use of force as a tool for staying in power.37 Whether through greater internal repression, diversionary wars, arms races, or a ratcheting up of great power conflict, there were genuine concerns that the global economic downturn would lead to an increase in conflict. Violence in the Middle East, border disputes in the South China Sea, and even the disruptions of the Occupy movement fuel impressions of surge in global public disorder. ¶ The aggregate data suggests otherwise, however. The Institute for Economics and Peace has constructed a “Global Peace Index” annually since 2007. A key conclusion they draw from the 2012 report is that “The average level of peacefulness in 2012 is approximately the same as it was in 2007.”38 Interstate violence in particular has declined since the start of the financial crisis – as have military expenditures in most sampled countries. Other studies confirm that the Great Recession has not triggered any increase in violent conflict; the secular decline in violence that started with the end of the Cold War has not been reversed.39 Rogers Brubaker concludes, “the crisis has not to date generated the surge in protectionist nationalism or ethnic exclusion that might have been expected.”40¶ None of these data suggest that the global economy is operating swimmingly. Growth remains unbalanced and fragile, and has clearly slowed in 2012. Transnational capital flows remain depressed compared to pre-crisis levels, primarily due to a drying up of cross-border interbank lending in Europe. Currency volatility remains an ongoing concern. Compared to the aftermath of other postwar recessions, growth in output, investment, and employment in the developed world have all lagged behind. But the Great Recession is not like other postwar recessions in either scope or kind; expecting a standard “V”-shaped recovery was unreasonable. One financial analyst characterized the post-2008 global economy as in a state of “contained depression.”41 The key word is “contained,” however. Given the severity, reach and depth of the 2008 financial crisis, the proper comparison is with Great Depression. And by that standard, the outcome variables look impressive. As Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff concluded in This Time is Different: “that its macroeconomic outcome has been only the most severe global recession since World War II – and not even worse – must be regarded as fortunate.”42 Econ resilient, US isn’t key, and impact empirically deniedLamy ’11(Pascal Lamy is the Director-General of the World Trade Organization. Lamy is Honorary President of Paris-based think tank Notre Europe. Lamy graduated from the prestigious Sciences Po Paris, from HEC and ÉNA, graduating second in his year of those specializing in economics. “System Upgrade” BY PASCAL LAMY | APRIL 18, 2011) The bigger test came with the 2008-2009 Great Recession, the first truly global recession since World War II. When the international economy went into free fall, trade went right along with it. Production and supply are today thoroughly global in nature, with most manufactured products made from parts and materials imported from many other countries. These global value chains have a multiplier effect on trade statistics, which explains why, as the global economy contracted by 2 percent in 2009, trade volume shrank by more than 12 percent. This multiplier effect works the other way around as well: Growth returned to 4.6 percent and trade volume grew by a record 14.5 percent over the course of 2010. Projections for trade in 2011 are also strong, with WTO economists predicting that trade volume will rise 6.5 percent during the current year. This sharp rebound in trade has proved two essential things: Markets stayed open despite ever-stronger pressures to close them, and trade is an indispensible tool for economic recovery, particularly for developing countries, which are more dependent on trade. Shortly after the crisis broke out, we in the WTO began to closely monitor the trade policy response of our member governments. Many were fearful that pressures to impose trade restrictions would prove too powerful for governments to resist. But this is not what happened. Instead, the system of rules and disciplines, agreed to over 60 years of negotiations, held firm. In a series of reports prepared for WTO members and the G-20, we found that governments acted with great restraint. At no time did the trade-restrictive measures imposed cover more than 2 percent of world imports. Moreover, the measures used -- anti-dumping duties, safeguards, and countervailing duties to offset export or production subsidies -- were those which, in the right circumstances, are permissible under WTO rules. I am not suggesting that every safeguard measure or countervailing duty imposed during those difficult days was in compliance with WTO rules, but responses to trade pressures were generally undertaken within an internationally agreed-upon framework. Countries by and large resisted overtly noncompliant measures, such as breaking legally binding tariff ceilings or imposing import bans or quotas. As markets stayed open, trade flows began to shift, and countries that shrugged off the impact of the crisis and continued to grow -- notably China, India, and Brazil -- became ever-more attractive markets for countries that were struggling, including those in Europe and North America. Trade has been a powerful engine for growth in the developing world, a fact reflected in the far greater trade-to-GDP ratios we see there. In 2010, developing countries' share of world trade expanded to a record 45 percent, and this trend looks set to continue. Decisions made in Brasilia, Beijing, and New Delhi to open their respective economies to trade have been instrumental in enabling these countries to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. Even massive economic decline has zero chance of warRobert Jervis 11, Professor in the Department of Political Science and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, December 2011, “Force in Our Times,” Survival, Vol. 25, No. 4, p. 403-425 Even if war is still seen as evil, the security community could be dissolved if severe conflicts of interest were to arise. Could the more peaceful world generate new interests that would bring the members of the community into sharp disputes? 45 A zero-sum sense of status would be one example, perhaps linked to a steep rise in nationalism. More likely would be a worsening of the current economic difficulties, which could itself produce greater nationalism, undermine democracy and bring back old-fashioned beggar-my-neighbor economic policies. While these dangers are real, it is hard to believe that the conflicts could be great enough to lead the members of the community to contemplate fighting each other. It is not so much that economic interdependence has proceeded to the point where it could not be reversed – states that were more internally interdependent than anything seen internationally have fought bloody civil wars. Rather it is that even if the more extreme versions of free trade and economic liberalism become discredited, it is hard to see how without building on a preexisting high level of political conflict leaders and mass opinion would come to believe that their countries could prosper by impoverishing or even attacking others. Is it possible that problems will not only become severe, but that people will entertain the thought that they have to be solved by war? While a pessimist could note that this argument does not appear as outlandish as it did before the financial crisis, an optimist could reply (correctly, in my view) that the very fact that we have seen such a sharp economic down-turn without anyone suggesting that force of arms is the solution shows that even if bad times bring about greater economic conflict, it will not make war thinkable. Drones for business trade off with employmentColarusso 13 (Laura Colarusso, freelance journalist based in Boston. “Why the U.S. economy should be scared of the Amazon drone.” The Week. December 3, 2013. http://theweek.com/articles/455207/why-economy-should-scared-amazon-drone.) Whether Bezos' vision will become a reality remains to be seen. But consider, for a moment, the poor deliveryman (or woman). What used to seem like a pretty secure job that couldn’t get shipped overseas may now be left behind in the inexorable march towards automation. Much like the car manufacturers, toll collectors, and bank tellers of yesteryear, those that bring our packages to our front doors could find themselves trapped in a shrinking industry increasingly taken over by robots.¶ This is hardly a new phenomenon. In the 1930s, economist John Maynard Keynes warned of “technological unemployment,” an economic condition in which more jobs are being lost than created because of mechanization. In recent years, that trend has accelerated, according to researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who argue that new technologies like computerized inventory control and voice recognition software are allowing machines to move into service sector jobs that were once thought to be beyond their reach.¶ The last recession has only intensified the changes. During the economic downturn, as businesses looked for ways to cut costs, they increasingly turned to the idea of replacing people with technology. Corporations rebounded rather quickly while wages remained stagnant, which can be explained in part by the fact that companies have increased their spending on equipment and software by 26 percent between June of 2009 (the official end of the recession) and October 2011.¶ A study from Oxford University released in September concluded that up to 47 percent of jobs in the United States could be automated in the next 20 years. The researchers, Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, argue that the changes will hit the lower-income jobs Americans have increasingly been turning to in this post-recession economy.¶ Why seniors are plugging in for encore careers “Our model predicts that most workers in transportation and logistics occupations, together with the bulk of office and administrative support workers, and labor in production occupations, are at risk,” they write. “More surprisingly, we find that a substantial share of employment in service occupations, where most U.S. job growth has occurred over the past decades, are highly susceptible to computerization.”¶ Their predictions are already coming true, and the evidence is cropping up everywhere. Amazon isn’t the first company to ponder whether drones can deliver its products more cheaply and efficiently. There’s the TacoCopter, a gadget unveiled in September that is designed to bring you tasty Mexican food. Over the summer, a Domino’s franchise in the United Kingdom proved you can deliver two pizzas with an unmanned aircraft. In China, SF Express has been testing delivery-by-drone for the better part of this year.¶ Download 235.33 Kb. Share with your friends:
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