Ross et. Al 09 (Martin Ross*, Darin Toohey, Manfred Peinemann & Patrick Ross, Center Faculty Chair at the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado, Project Engineer at The Aerospace Corporation, , Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, graduate physics instructor currently Program Manager supervising the Rocket Impact-on-Stratospheric-Ozone (RISO) Program for The Aerospace Corporation, “Limits on the Space Launch Market Related to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14777620902768867)
A full description of the complex processes that mix, transport, and chemically process rocket emissions into the global stratosphere is beyond the scope of this work. However, it is of interest to briefly review the available information on rocket emissions and how the ozone layer is affected. With this background, we present approximate descriptions of the global ozone loss ΔO3 for rocket emissions based on available data and models. The available information is sparse and approximate; so our analysis must be considered in the context of large uncertainties. This is particularly so for liquid propellant engines. The alternative to our work is to make no progress at all. Accordingly, in addition to our conclusions, we highlight the many areas where further research is required. To first order, rocket engine exhaust consists of chemically inert compounds (N2 and CO2), radicals (NO, OH, Cl), radical sources and reservoirs (HCl, H2O), intermediate underoxidized compounds (H2, CO) and alumina or soot. The relative combinations of these compounds in the exhaust depend on propellant type; four main propellant types are in wide use, one solid, and three liquid. We must distinguish between rocket exhaust (hot gases and particles at the nozzle exit) and rocket emissions (the cold plume wake that mixes into the stratosphere). In the lower stratosphere, fuel rich rocket exhaust is modified in the hot plume by intense secondary combustion reactions driven by atmospheric oxygen mixing into the plume. This “afterburning” governs the conversion of H2 to H2O, CO, and soot to CO2, and net production of ozone destroying radicals. 28 Afterburning is vigorous in the lower stratosphere, lessens with altitude, and stops in the upper stratosphere and so rocket emissions are highly variable with altitude. Afterburning is not well understood—especially with respect to the minor components that most affect ozone. Table 1 shows the first order emission compositions for the four main propellant types. Parentheses show the common names for the different propellant types. Table 1 acknowledges afterburning by reporting H2 and CO in the exhaust as converted to H2O and CO2, respectively, and net production of radicals. We emphasize that plume models have never been validated with respect to the net emission of radicals, soot, or the details of the alumina particles sizes. One recent measurement suggests that the models in fact underestimate the production of NO in the Space Shuttle SRMs or LREs. The emissions presented in Table 1 cause prompt and deep ozone loss (approaching 100%) in the immediate plume wake, caused by the radical emissions, over areas of hundreds of square miles lasting several days after launch. These stratospheric “ozone mini-holes” have been well observed in situ by high altitude aircraft plume sampling campaigns. It is not known if the cumulative effect of the small “ozone holes” is significant compared to the global steady-state chemical effects of the emissions. Beyond the prompt plume wake ozone destruction, second order processing of rocket combustion products occurs during the weeks and months after launch. The plumes are transported and mixed into the global stratosphere and lose their identity as distinct air masses. This intermediate mesoscale phase would be characterized by complex plume-atmosphere interactions among radicals, reservoirs, and sinks. Significant influences from alumina or soot particles are expected, possibly involving the creation of new H2O related particles. The details of this processing will be highly variable according to altitude and even time of day of launch and certainly has a large influence on the steady-state global ozone loss. A few chance observations of aged plumes confirm the importance of the mesoscale processing. No studies have been done on this aspect of rocket emissions.
Link-Launches
Every type of rocket is harmful to the ozone- increases may lead to impacts in 10 years
Atkinson 09(BA in English and Journalism from the University of Minnesota, Senior Editor and writer for Universe Today, Project manager for the 365 Days of Astronomy podcast, NASA/JPL Solar System Ambassador) Nancy Atkinson, Universe Today April 2, 2009 “Will Rocket Launches Deplete the Ozone” http://www.universetoday.com/28412/will-rocket-launches-deplete-the-ozone/
A new study predicts that Earth’s stratospheric ozone layer will suffer significant damage from future unregulated rocket launches. The study provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches. The increase in launches could cause ozone depletion that eventually could exceed ozone losses from CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) which were banned in the 1980′s. “As the rocket launch market grows, so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions,” said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulder’s atmospheric and oceanic sciences department, a member of the study. “If left unregulated, rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs.” The study says more research should be done on how different rockets affect the ozone before imposing stricter regulations on chemicals used in rocket fuels. Current global rocket launches deplete the ozone layer by no more than a few hundredths of 1 percent annually, said Toohey. But as the space industry grows and other ozone-depleting chemicals decline in the Earth’s stratosphere, the issue of ozone depletion from rocket launches is expected to move to the forefront. Rockets around the world use a variety of propellants, including solids, liquids and hybrids. Martin Ross, lead author of the study from The Aerospace Corporation Ross said while little is currently known about how they compare to each other with respect to the ozone loss they cause, new studies are needed to provide the parameters required to guide possible regulation of both commercial and government rocket launches in the future. Since some proposed space efforts would require frequent launches of large rockets over extended periods, the new study was designed to bring attention to the issue in hopes of sparking additional research, said Ross. “In the policy world, uncertainty often leads to unnecessary regulation,” he said. “We are suggesting this could be avoided with a more robust understanding of how rockets affect the ozone layer.” “Twenty years may seem like a long way off, but space system development often takes a decade or longer and involves large capital investments,” Ross continued. “We want to reduce the risk that unpredictable and more strict ozone regulations would be a hindrance to space access by measuring and modeling exactly how different rocket types affect the ozone layer.” Highly reactive trace-gas molecules known as radicals dominate stratospheric ozone destruction, and a single radical in the stratosphere can destroy up to 10,000 ozone molecules before being deactivated and removed from the stratosphere. Microscopic particles, including soot and aluminum oxide particles emitted by rocket engines, provide chemically active surface areas that increase the rate such radicals “leak” from their reservoirs and contribute to ozone destruction, said Toohey. In addition, every type of rocket engine causes some ozone loss, and rocket combustion products are the only human sources of ozone-destroying compounds injected directly into the middle and upper stratosphere where the ozone layer resides, he said. The research team is optimistic that a solution to the problem exists. “We have the resources, we have the expertise, and we now have the regulatory history to address this issue in a very powerful way,” said Toohey. “I am optimistic that we are going to solve this problem, but we are not going to solve it by doing nothing.”
Rocket launches are the single greatest contributor to ozone destruction
Scivista 11 “Frequent Space Missions Affect Ozone Layer” Scivista February 17, 2011 http://scivista.com/content/study-frequent-space-missions-affect-ozone-layer-7812388.html
Since the first space mission, it has been a matter of national pride to explore what lies beyond the visible layers of the atmosphere. This led to frequent space missions, which though contributory to the humankind; have been harming the precious ozone layer. It has been discovered that among the many factors, contributing to depletion of the ozone layer is the frequent space missions, conducted by global space research organizations. A study conducted by atmosphere researchers in the U.S. has warned about the harmful consequences, revealing that the damage done by rocket emissions is greater than that caused by other chemical factors. The researchers stated that the frequent space missions should be restricted, as they are harming the stratospheric ozone layers extensively. Conclusions of the study The study that was conducted by Professor Darin Toohey (atmosphere and ocean scientist) of the University of Colorado at Boulder, stated that rocket emissions were causing greater damage to the ozone layer than banned chemical used in aerosols, CFCs, freezers and air conditioners. The study was published in the March issue of the journal Astropolitics. Frequent rocket flights released damaging substances between the middle and upper layers of the stratosphere, where the ozone layer is located. In the study, Professor Toohey indicated that the Montreal Protocol, which banned the use of CFCs in freezer refrigerants, aerosol cans and air conditioners in 1987, hoping for the ozone layer to normalize by 2040, ignored the ozone-disrupting substances released by rocket fuel.