Noaa technical Memorandum nwstm pr-54



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NOAA Technical Memorandum NWSTM PR-54

2006 Tropical Cyclones Central North Pacific

Andy Nash
Tim Craig
Sam Houston
Roy Matsuda
Jeff Powell
Ray Tanabe
Jim Weyman


Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu, Hawaii


July 2007

TABLE OF CONTENTS



  • Overview

  • Hurricane Daniel

  • Hurricane Ioke

  • Tropical Depression 02-C

  • Tropical Depression 03-C

  • Tropical Depression 04-C

Overview of the 2006 Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season

The central Pacific tropical cyclone season had near normal activity despite the development of a relatively weak El Nino in September 2006. A total of five tropical cyclones occurred during the season, including two hurricanes. One of the hurricanes, Ioke, reached category 5 intensity and set several central Pacific tropical cyclone records. The other three systems only reached tropical depression intensity. Two signals of El Nino was that 4 of the 5 systems developed within the central Pacific basin where ocean waters were warmer than normal and the three depressions occurred from mid-September to mid-October. Based on long-term averages, the typical season has 4.4 total tropical cyclones, 1.6 being hurricanes, 1.3 tropical storms and 1.5 tropical depressions.

Ioke struck Johnston Island with peak winds estimated to be in the 95 to 115 knots range. This resulted in significant damage to vegetation and coastal erosion. The native bird population was also affected, however no injuries occurred despite a survey crew being on the otherwise uninhabited island at the time. Remnants of both Hurricane Daniel and TD-04C helped fuel locally heavy rains across the Big Island.



Table 1. Summary table (Daniel and Ioke data only for the Central Pacific)

Name

Dates

Max Wind

Est. Minimum Pressure

Hurricane Daniel

Jul 24-26

80 kt/ 90 mph

980 mb/28.94 in

Hurricane Ioke

Aug 19-26

140 kt/160 mph

915 mb/27.02 in

TD two-c

Sep 18-20

30 kt/ 35 mph

1007 mb/29.74 in

TD three-c

Sep 26

30 kt/ 35 mph

1008 mb/29.77 in

TD four-c

Oct 13-14

30 kt/ 35 mph

1007 mb/29.74 in

Table 2. Overall Track Verification. Table entries are track forecast errors, measured in nautical miles. Values in parentheses indicate the number of forecasts. Values in bold represent guidance forecast errors equal to or less than the official CPHC forecast.

Forecast

12 hr

24 hr

36 hr

48 hr

72 hr

96 hr

120 hr

CPHC

32.6

51.5

73.0

89.6

111.9

157.3

227.5

CLP5

45.3

86.0

135.5

198.0

290.0

317.9

367.2

BAMD

34.6

54.1

73.4

83.7

73.5

98.1

132.7

BAMM

31.6

49.1

65.5

81.8

75.1

100.9

135.2

BAMS

43.1

75.6

115.9

162.5

240.0

313.5

377.2

GFDL

29.1

45.7

64.2

82.2

101.5

140.3

202.3

AVNO

42.5

63.8

84.7

94.7

109.9

143.0

176.8

GUNS

28.4

55.5

86.0

105.5

131.1

182.8

253.8

GUNA

28.6

50.9

75.4

91.3

109.9

158.0

223.1

CONU

27.1

48.3

70.9

88.0

112.1

155.1

221.4

UKMET

45.3

98.9

91.5

103.8

118.0

149.2

204.3

NOGAPS

33.2

55.8

88.7

109.7

140.4

185.1

253.4

Table 3. Overall Wind Verification. Table entries are errors in maximum sustained wind speed forecasts, measured in knots. Values in the parentheses indicate the number of forecasts. Values in bold represent guidance forecast errors equal to or less than the official CPHC forecast.

Forecast

12 hr

24 hr

36 hr

48 hr

72 hr

96 hr

120 hr

CPHC

9.7

17.5

22.8

23.5

25.0

34.3

43.4

GFDL

9.2

14.4

17.0

18.4

16.9

20.4

19.4

AVNO

52.2

62.3

72.4

83.2

94.4

99.6

100.7

SHF5

12.9

22.8

31.7

39.3

88.8

106.9

93.7

SHIP

11.5

26.6

38.5

50.3

65.0

81.4

90.2

ICON

9.2

19.7

26.4

32.8

34.8

44.0

51.6

NOGAPS

46.4

52.8

58.2

62.6

69.7

74.8

76.1

HURRICANE DANIEL


24-26 July 2006


OVERVIEW. Tropical Depression (TD) 5-E formed south of Baja California near 12.4N 109.9W at 0000 UTC 17 July then quickly intensified and became Tropical Storm Daniel 12 hours later near 12.4N 112.2W. Development continued unabated until Daniel became a hurricane at 1800 UTC 18 July near 11.9N 117.6W. Thanks to favorable SSTs and low shear environment, Hurricane Daniel continued to strengthen as it moved west, reaching its peak of 130 knots on 22 July. Hurricane Daniel exhibited a relatively rare structure, with very little convection outside of a nearly perfectly symmetrical eye wall. This type of hurricane, known as an annular hurricane, has been shown to maintain its intensity longer than the average hurricane, and Daniel was no exception.

However as it moved westward, Daniel began to slowly weaken and CPHC estimated the mean sustained winds to be 80 knots when it crossed 140W and moved into CPHC area of responsibility shortly before 1200 UTC 24 July. Although initially forecasted to maintain its intensity, Hurricane Daniel became a tropical storm within 18 hours of crossing 140W and a tropical depression within 36 hours. By the time it reached 16.2N 144.4W, CPHC classified it as a remnant low.



SYNOPTIC HISTORY. On 24 July when Daniel crossed 140W, most track and intensity guidance suggested that Daniel would continue to slowly weaken and reach the main Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm in roughly 96 hours. At that time, the vertical wind shear in the vicinity of Daniel remained relatively low (9 knots from the east). The upper level easterlies south of a ridge to the north were projected to spread eastward. The strong southwesterly upper level flow across the Hawaiian Islands associated with an upper trough to the northwest was forecast to decrease as the trough receded northwestward. This would have resulted in reduced vertical shear as Daniel approached the Hawaiian Islands. However by 25 July at 0000 UTC, satellite loops showed Daniel was suffering the effects of unfavorable easterly shear estimated at 25 knots from the strong high to the north. Much of the cumulonimbus (convection) activity was pushed west of the low level circulation center (LLCC) and cloud tops had warmed. In addition, Daniel moved over 25 degrees C sea-surface temperatures and the low level northeast flow advected cooler and drier boundary layer air into Daniel’s circulation. By 25 July 0600 UTC, Daniel became a tropical storm located near 16.2N 143.1W and by 1200 UTC Daniel became nearly stationary in response to the weak environmental steering. The combination of the weak easterly shear and the ingestion of relatively cool and dry air at low levels caused Daniel to weaken to a tropical depression by 0000 UTC 26 July with the LLCC exposed and well defined and no active convection near the center.

CPHC issued the last bulletin on Daniel at 2100 UTC 26 July and classified it as a dissipating remnant low with maximum sustained winds of 30 knots located about 800 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.



IMPACTS: The remnant circulation of Daniel passed just south of the island of the Big Island of Hawaii on 28 July. Radar and rain gages recorded two to five inches of rainfall across windward areas of the Big Island and Maui on 28 and 29 July. The remnants also brought gusty easterly winds to the main Hawaiian Islands. For a brief period during the afternoon on 28 July, a wind gage at South Point on the Big Island recorded sustained winds of approximately 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.

Table 4. Best Track Data

Date/Time
(UTC)


Latitude
(°N)


Longitude
(°W)


Pressure
(mb)


Wind Speed
(kt)


Stage/Notes

24 / 1200

16.2

140.4

980

80

Hurricane

24 / 1800

16.2

141.3

985

75

"

25 / 0000

16.2

141.8

994

65

"

25 / 0600

16.2

142.3

999

55

Tropical Storm

25 / 1200

16.2

142.4

1003

45

"

25 / 1800

16.2

142.6

1004

35

"

26 / 0000

16.2

142.8

1006

30

Tropical Depression

26 / 0600

16.2

142.9

1008

30

"

26 / 1200

16.2

143.1

1009

25

"

26 / 1800

16.1

143.6

1009

25

"

27 / 0000

16.2

144.4

1009

25

remnant low

27 / 0600

16.3

145.1

1009

25

"

27 / 1200

16.9

146.6

1009

25

"

27 / 1800

17.2

147.4

1009

25

"

28 / 0000

17.4

148.8

1010

25

"

28 / 0600

17.6

150.1

1010

25

"

28 / 1200

17.8

151.8

1010

25

"
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