Observation One: Current efforts to protect transportation infrastructure from climate change are inadequate



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Ports-Advantage

Climate Threatens Ports

Climate change will force ports to shut down


Becker et al, 11 (Austin Becker, PhD Student at Stanford University, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program for Environment and Resources; Satoshi Inoue, Visiting Professor at Stanford, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan; Martin Fischer, Director, Center for Integrated Facility Engineering; Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University; Ben Schwegler, Chief Scientist of Walt Disney Imagineering R&D and Consulting Professor at Stanford

University; “Considering Climate Change: a Survey of Global Seaport Administrators; http://cife.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/WP128.pdf)



In a 2007 study, Nicholls et al. analyzed 136 port cities around the world to quantify ¶ current and future exposure to a 1-in-100 year flooding event. Their findings suggest that many ¶ of these areas have significant percentages of their GDP in areas that are at high risk today and ¶ climate change will increase that risk significantly. By 2070, for example, the combined effect of ¶ climate change, urbanization, increased population, and land subsidence could put 150-million ¶ people and US $35,000 billion (9% of projected global GDP) of assets at direct risk (Nicholls ¶ 2007). Though their study focused on “port cities,” as opposed to the ports themselves, the ¶ results serve as a useful indicator to the urgency of climate-change adaptation for the ports that ¶ are economic engines for these regions. Even outside of catastrophic damages, ports can expect ¶ “downtime” to increase with climate change. Larger storms in Japan, for example, could lead to ¶ more port shutdowns. Esteban (2009) shows that without taking proactive steps toward ¶ adaptation, the increased frequency of wind events could reduce the potential Japanese GDP by ¶ between 1.5 and 3.4% by 2085. Hallegate (2007) looked more specifically at the impact of ¶ hurricane intensity and found that just a 10% increase in storm intensity would increase annual ¶ hurricane damages in the US by 54%, from $8 billion to $12 billion per year. Another recent ¶ study found that surrounding port lands at 35 of 44 Caribbean ports will be inundated by 1m of ¶ SLR, unless protected by new coastal structures (Simpson et al. 2010).


Changes in precipitation will damage all infrastructure – Waterways are the greatest risk of catastrophe.


NTPP ‘9 (National Transportation Policy Project, Bipartisan coalition of transportation policy experts, business and civic leaders, and is chaired by four distinguished former elected officials who served at the federal, state, and local levels, Published December 15 2009, Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Transportation%20Adaptation%20(3).pdf)

Projected changes in annual precipitation are ¶ not consistent across the United States, with ¶ regional models showing increases in some areas ¶ and decreases in others. Increasing rates of annual average precipitation can render stormwater ¶ facilities inadequate, lead to deteriorating water ¶ quality due to run-off and sedimentation, degrade ¶ infrastructure, and change soil conditions (with ¶ impacts such as subsidence and heave, landslides, ¶ and structural instability). Decreasing precipitation rates also can create problems, particularly in ¶ drying and shrinking of soils, affecting the base ¶ under pavements and other structures. Warming ¶ temperatures also will likely result in a shift from ¶ snowfall to rainfall, potentially relieving areas that ¶ typically see large amounts of snow from some of ¶ the cost of maintaining winter roads.¶ A potentially more significant concern across the ¶ nation is a projected increase in the intensity of¶ precipitation events. Extreme rainfall events can ¶ overwhelm stormwater management systems, ¶ lead to more flooding, and increase run-off issues throughout the nation. For instance, Tropical ¶ Storm Allison caused widespread flooding of ¶ Houston’s freeway system in 2001 due not to ¶ storm surge, but rather to the intensity, and duration of the rainfall. ¶ Changes in precipitation, coupled with increasing ¶ temperatures, also will have important effects on ¶ the nation’s inland waterway system. The Great ¶ Lakes are projected to experience declining water ¶ levels that will impair shipping; for each inch of ¶ lost draft a 1,000-foot bulk carrier loses 270 tons ¶ of capacity.¶ 13¶ If lower water levels occur on a regular basis, Great Lakes shippers will be less competitive with other competing modes such as rail or ¶ truck.¶ 14¶ Declining water levels would also result in ¶ increased costs and environmental impacts from ¶ increased dredging. Projections are less certain for ¶ the Mississippi River system, but both drought ¶ and flood conditions can stop barge traffic on the ¶ river system, greatly affecting the ability to move ¶ agricultural products from the interior to market.



*Note to reader: My home town will go broke if this happens

Warming would make shipping more difficult: lower lake and river levels mean that larger ships could not pass through existing lanes.



Department of Transportation - DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting ‘2 [DOT, “The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation”, October 2002, Federal Research Workshop, http://climate.dot.gov/documents/workshop1002/workshop.pdf, AD]
What are some other aspects of thisAssessment that are directly relevant totransportation? First, future conditions were¶ evaluated by using results from state of the art¶ climate model simulations in impacts studies,¶ and by using results from the current scientific¶ literature. Some of the relevant results include:¶ • Some climate models show a reduction insoil moisture in many areas resulting in¶ decreases in ground and surface water¶ supplies. This could result in a decrease inthe levels of the Great Lakes by as much asa meter or more. However, other model¶ results suggest little change in lake levels.¶ Reductions in base stream flow could causeproblems with transportation such as bargeshipping, infrastructure, and reductions inwater supply. However, warmer winter¶ temperatures could result in a longer ice-free¶ season thereby extending the shipping¶ season on the Great Lakes.¶ • A possible reduction in Western U.S.¶ snowpack that would impact water supply¶ and streamflow. This could result in a¶ seasonal redistribution of water availability.¶ • In Alaska, permafrost has already undergone¶ extensive melting and if future projections¶ of high-latitude warming hold, then melting¶ would continue.¶ • Heavy precipitation events in the U.S. have¶ increased over the 20th century, and could continue with a more vigorous hydrologic¶ cycle as projected by model scenarios.¶ • Increasing summer temperatures, coupled¶ with increasing water vapor, would likely¶ result in increases in the summer-time heat¶ index in many parts of the country.

New weather patterns will create permanent damage.



Transportation Research Board of the National Academies ’11 [Transportation Research Board, “ Adapting Transportation to the Impacts of Climate Change”, June 2011, Transportation Research Circular, E-C152, http://www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/165529.aspx AD]
Changing weather patterns, increasing storm intensities and flooding, rising sea levels, andincreasing temperatures are presenting a “new normal” under which transportation agencies across the country are starting to weigh the potential vulnerability of their transportation infrastructure and come up with plans to adapt. Many coastal states, while experienced with severe weather and effects of storm surge,¶ are now preparing for more permanent effects—including disinvestment and abandonment ofsome transportation infrastructure, and in some cases, relocation of entire communities. For some non-coastal states, increased frequency and intensity of storm events—and theassociated flooding and wind damage—have become critical issues.

Dirty Bombs

The chaos caused by a dirty bomb could cost billions in economic damage.


Curry 11( Andrew, Writer for Wired, Discover, National Geographic and Smithsonian, contributing editor for Archaeology magazine. Winner of Arthur F. Burns Journalism Prize. “Why Is This Cargo Container Emitting So Much Radiation?” October 21, 2011 Wired Magazine http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/10/ff_radioactivecargo/all/1)
Unloading a pre-container “breakbulk” cargo ship could take a week. Today, a crew of six Genoese longshoremen can move almost two dozen containers per hour using a crane to unload the ship, a stacker to move the boxes, and a few semi trucks; a ship with 3,000 boxes aboard can be turned around in 48 hours. The efficiency has proven to be an irresistible economic force. In 2010, the world’s container ports processed the equivalent of 560 million 20-foot containers. If you set aside bulk commodities like crude oil and grain, that’s more than 90 percent of the planet’s maritime cargo. By driving the cost of shipping way down and the speed of international commerce way up, containers helped make manufacturing global. But those millions of identical containers are, essentially, mystery boxes. Stevedores used to lay hands on each piece of cargo that went into a ship’s hold. Today, a container may be loaded, or “stuffed,” thousands of miles from the port. Once the doors are closed and sealed, “no one knows what’s inside,” says Philip Spayd, a supply-chain security consultant who spent 25 years working for the federal government. “We know what’s represented on their documents,” but those documents are easily faked, he says. “The only people who really know what’s inside are the ones who were there when the container was packed.” Containerized cargo is used to smuggle every imaginable form of contraband, from narcotics and small arms to counterfeit purses and illegal immigrants. Since the terrorist attacks of 9/11, security experts and politicians have zeroed in on containers as a major risk. At the top of their list is the possibility that containers could be used to smuggle a nuclear weapon, in pieces or whole. But nuclear bombs are tremendously complicated, and the key components aren’t exactly commonplace. In security circles, nukes are what’s known as a “high consequence, low probability” threat.¶ But that’s not true for the next danger on the list: a radiological dispersion device, also known as a dirty bomb. A payload of radioactive material — from inside a hospital’s teletherapy machine or instrument sterilizer, for example — sits atop a pile of conventional explosives. When the bomb detonates, it blows a cloud of radioactive dust into the air. The wind does the rest: Under the right conditions, just 20 milligrams of cesium-137 — roughly the amount found in gadgets that hospitals use to calibrate their radiation therapy equipment — could contaminate 40 city blocks.¶ Compared to a nuclear explosion, a dirty bomb would be a hiccup in terms of destructive force. The real problem would be panic. A light coating of radioactive dust raining down on Manhattan might cause only a minor increase in cancer rates, but it would definitely result in a major national freak-out. Set off at a major port, a dirty bomb would cause a chain reaction of precautionary closures and painstaking inspections that could bring the entire U.S. economy to a crawl within weeks. “The idea that dirty bombs could cause major destruction is complete bullshit. What they could do is cause billions and billions in economic damage,” says James Acton, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Dirty bombs are weapons of mass disruption.”


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