Original: english review of the past hurricane season summary of the past season
Download 3.17 Mb.
|
Hurricane Otto Otto formed from a broad low pressure area over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on November 15. Little development occurred, and it wasn’t until November 20 that a tropical depression formed from the system about 120 miles north of Colon, Panama. The cyclone drifted eastward, then southward on November 21-22 while it strengthened to a tropical storm. Late on November 22, Otto began moving slowly west-northwestward to the south of a building mid-level ridge. While this happened, dry air entrained into the system and stopped strengthening. On November 23, a new burst of deep convection developed near the center and Otto became a hurricane while located about 175 mi east of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. After that, rapid intensification occurred as Otto moved westward toward Central America. Maximum sustained winds increased to an estimated 100 kt as Otto made landfall in the Indio Maíz Biological Reserve in extreme southern Nicaragua around 1730 UTC November 24. After landfall, Otto weakened below hurricane strength as it crossed southern Nicaragua and northwestern Costa Rica, and it emerged into the eastern North Pacific Ocean early on November 25. Over the Pacific, Otto encountered strong shear and dry mid-level air. This caused the tropical cyclone to gradually weaken while it moved west-southwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed. The system weakened to a tropical depression by 1200 UTC October 26 and shortly thereafter it degenerated into a trough about 490 miles south of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Otto is responsible for 18 deaths, including 10 in Costa Rica and 8 in Panama. The late-season hurricane set several historical records, including 1) latest hurricane formation in a calendar year in the Caribbean Sea, 2) strongest hurricane on record for so late in the year, 3) latest hurricane landfall in the Atlantic basin within a calendar year, and 4) the farthest south a hurricane has made landfall in Central America. Acknowledgements: The cyclone summaries are based on Tropical Cyclone Reports prepared by the author and Lixion Avila, Robbie Berg, Eric Blake, Mike Brennan, Dan Brown, John Cangialosi, Todd Kimberlain, Richard Pasch, and Stacy Stewart. These reports are available on the Internet at www.nhc.noaa.gov/2016atlanshtml. Table 1. 2016 Atlantic hurricane season statistics.
a Tropical depression (TD), maximum sustained winds 33 kt or less; tropical storm (TS), winds 34-63 kt; hurricane (H), winds 64-95 kt; major hurricane (MH), winds 96 kt or higher. b Dates begin at 0000 UTC and include all tropical and subtropical cyclone stages; non-tropical stages are excluded. c Deaths during the tropical cyclone phase. Additional deaths may have occurred during other portions of the cyclone’s life cycle. Figure 1. Tracks of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes during the 2016 season. Eastern North Pacific Overall tropical cyclone activity during the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was well above average. Of the 21 tropical storms that formed, eleven became hurricanes, and five reached major hurricane strength (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). In comparison, the 1981-2010 averages are 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. A disproportionately large number of tropical cyclones formed or moved through the central and western portions of the basin. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, a measure that takes into account both the strength and duration of the season’s tropical storms and hurricanes, was 150% of the long-term median value. The genesis of most of the tropical cyclones was associated with tropical waves that moved westward from the Atlantic to the eastern North Pacific basin. The formation of the season’s first named storm did not occur until July, the second latest on record after 1969. However, the period from July through September was especially busy, with 18 named storms occurring during this period, which is the most since 1971 in any three-month time period. Hurricane Newton affected Baja California Sur in September, bringing Category 1 and 2 conditions across this region. Tropical Storm Javier affected the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula the month before, but with only minimal effects. Figures 2a and 2b depict the tracks of the 2016 eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes. Tropical Storm Agatha A tropical depression formed by late on July 1 about 690 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and moved west-northwestward for the next two days, with little strengthening. The small cyclone became Tropical Storm Agatha with wind of 45 kt later on July 2, but by late on July 3, a less favorable environment resulted in weakening. The remnant low moved westward, and dissipated well east of the Hawaiian Islands a few days later. Hurricane Blas A tropical depression formed about 575 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. During the next several days, the tropical cyclone moved west-northwestward and intensified, becoming a tropical storm early on July 3 and a hurricane the next day. Blas then underwent rapid intensification, becoming a major hurricane on July 5 with a peak intensity of 120 kt late that day about 920 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although Blas weakened a little, it retained major hurricane strength for nearly a day while maintaining a large and distinct eye. A steady weakening trend commenced on July 7 when Blas began moving over cooler waters. Blas turned northwestward, degenerated into a remnant low, and then dissipated by late on July 11. Hurricane Celia A tropical depression formed about 550 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo on July 6. The depression intensified slowly in a marginally favorable environment while moving westward to west-northwestward, becoming a tropical storm on July 8. A slow strengthening continued while Celia moved over a region of cooler waters in the wake of Hurricane Blas. On July 9, when Celia then moved over warmer waters, it began to strengthen more quickly. Celia reached its peak intensity of 85 kt late on July 11 about 1150 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Weakening commenced on July 12 when the cyclone reached cooler waters and the thunderstorm activity diminished. Celia reached the central Pacific basin early on July 15 and became a remnant low early the next day. Hurricane Darby A tropical depression formed about 300 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo on July 11. Northeasterly shear initially prevented strengthening, but by July 12, the shear decreased and the cyclone strengthened into a tropical storm. Darby strengthened quickly during the next 24 hours while moving just south of due west, and reached hurricane intensity later on July 13. The cyclone gradually strengthened and became a major hurricane on July 16 with a peak intensity of 105 kt while located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The hurricane did not maintain that intensity for long since it reached cooler waters, and fell below hurricane strength early on July 19. It moved into the central Pacific basin as a 50-kt tropical storm the next day. Hurricane Estelle A tropical depression formed a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico on July 15. The system strengthened into a tropical storm later that day while centered about 350 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Estelle moved westward and west-northwestward over warm waters the first few days after formation. However, northeasterly shear allowed Estelle to only gradually intensify, with the cyclone reaching a peak intensity of 60 kt winds on July 17 about 460 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Estelle passed south of Clarion Island the next day as a slightly weaker cyclone, but regained some strength by early on July 20. However, the cyclone reached cooler waters later that day, and weakening commenced. Hurricane Frank A tropical depression formed on July 20 about 290 miles south of Manzanillo and became a tropical storm later that day. Frank moved west-northwestward, and neared Socorro Island on July 23 as a strong tropical storm. Over the next few days, steering currents weakened, and Frank slowed down while wind shear was preventing the storm from intensifying. Frank started moving a little faster on July 26, and strengthened into a hurricane later that day with a peak intensity of 75 kt. The hurricane then reached cooler waters and rapidly weakened. Hurricane Georgette A broad low pressure system developed on July 17 south of Mexico, but shear associated with the outflow of Tropical Storm Estelle hindered further development. The shear decreased on July 22 and a tropical depression formed about 800 miles southwest of Manzanillo, with the cyclone becoming a tropical storm a little more than a day later. When the shear relaxed on July 23, Georgette intensified while it turned northwestward, becoming a hurricane later that day. The small tropical cyclone then rapidly intensified, reaching an estimated peak intensity of 115 kt early on July 25 when it was located about 600 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Later that day, Georgette rapidly weakened over cooler waters, and steering currents collapsed, resulting in a slow motion. By July 27, thunderstorm activity diminished, and Georgette became a remnant low about 1250 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur. Tropical Storm Howard On July 31, a tropical depression formed while centered about 860 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The tropical cyclone moved west-northwestward and became a tropical storm early on August 1. Although significant strengthening was limited by shear and marginally warm waters, the storm reached a peak intensity of 50 kt early on August 2. It then moved over cooler waters, weakened, and became a remnant low on August 3. Tropical Storm Ivette A tropical depression formed on August 2 about 750 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur, and intensified into a tropical storm shortly thereafter. For the next five days, Ivette was steered westward to west-northwestward, but moderately strong shear limited Ivette’s intensification. On August 5, with the cyclone reached its estimated peak intensity of 50 kt while located about 1475 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur. On August 6 and 7, hostile environmental conditions caused Ivette to weaken to a tropical depression while located about 990 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. The system dissipated a few days later. Tropical Storm Javier Javier formed from the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Earl. After striking Belize, Earl’s remnant circulation moved across central Mexico and emerged into the eastern Pacific, where a small low pressure system formed west of Acapulco, Mexico, on August 6. A tropical depression formed from this low about 120 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo early the next day, and moved northwestward for the next two days just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Sustained winds of 45 mph were reported at Manzanillo early on August 7, indicating that the depression had intensified into a tropical storm. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found Javier with peak winds of 55 kt late on August 8, when the cyclone was located near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The cyclone then gradually weakened until landfall early on August 9 near San Jose del Cabo as a 45-kt tropical storm. The mountainous terrain over the Baja California peninsula caused Javier to quickly weaken, and the cyclone became a depression on August 10. By late that day, Javier’s circulation dissipated just west of La Bocana, Mexico. There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Javier. Tropical Storm Kay A broad cyclonic gyre formed on August 13 several hundred miles south of Acapulco. The circulation gradually became better defined over the next two days while moving north-northwestward, but strong shear was preventing development. A tropical depression eventually formed on August 18 about 400 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The depression moved slowly northwestward for the next couple of days and strengthened into a tropical storm early on August 19. Kay passed near Socorro Island later that day, and turned west-northwestward on August 20, achieving an intensity of 45 kt. The cyclone weakened, but by August 21 the shear decreased significantly, and Kay re-intensified a little. Kay moved over cooler waters later on August 22, and became a remnant low the next day. Hurricane Lester A tropical depression formed on August 24 about 385 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo. The depression moved west-northwestward, and gradually strengthened into a tropical storm a day later. Lester reached an intensity of 50 kt before encountering a less favorable environment, which temporarily curtailed additional strengthening as the storm slowed down in a weak-steering currents. The environment then became more favorable, and Lester intensified and neared category 3 strength on August 27. Lester then unexpectedly weakened during the several hours, but recovered on August 28, with the cyclone experiencing a period of rapid intensification. Lester reached a 115 kt intensity on August 29 while located about 1335 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The hurricane weakened some, but intensified yet again reaching its peak intensity of 125 kt early on August 31. The cyclone continued westward and weakened slightly before moving into the central Pacific basin late on August 31. Hurricane Madeline A broad trough of low pressure moved westward across the eastern Pacific for several days showing some signs of organization. A tropical depression eventually formed later on August 26, about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii, and strengthened into a tropical storm 6 h after formation. In an environment of moderate wind shear and over marginally warm waters, Madeline continued to slowly strengthen while moving west-northwestward to northwestward during the next couple of days. The cyclone moved into the central Pacific basin as a 50 kt tropical storm late on August 27 and then reached hurricane status in that basin. Hurricane Newton Newton developed about 240 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, on September 3. The cyclone moved north-northwestward and northwestward over very warm waters for several days, and underwent a 36-hour period of rapid intensification beginning later on September 4 while it approached the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Newton reached its peak intensity of 80 kt early on September 6 when it was about 60 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico and then the hurricane’s eyewall hit the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula a couple of hours later. The hurricane weakened slightly and made landfall near El Cuñaño on the western side of the peninsula later that day with 75 kt winds. Newton maintained hurricane intensity while its center moved up the middle of the peninsula, but southerly shear increased and caused further weakening after Newton moved into the Gulf of California. The cyclone weakened to a tropical storm by early on September 7 about 50 miles west of Guaymas. Newton made a second landfall as a 55 kt tropical storm a few hours later just south of Bahía de Kino, and then weakened quickly over the state of Sonora. The cyclone degenerated into a remnant low by late that day near the United States-Mexico border and dissipated near the Arizona-New Mexico border early the next day. Newton knocked out power, blew out some windows, and caused some damage to homes in Cabo San Lucas, but the resort areas at the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula escaped major damage. However, others area to the north experience significant damage due to flooding. Newton caused five direct deaths due to drownings, and caused 700 million pesos (~37 million USD) in damage in Baja California Sur. In Guaymas, south of Newton’s second landfall, more than 3,000 homes and 50 business were damaged, and about 90% of surrounding areas lost electricity. Total damages in Guaymas are estimated to be 1.1 billion pesos (~58 million USD). Some flash flooding also occurred in southern Arizona occurred in association with Newton’s remnants. Hurricane Orlene Orlene developed into a tropical depression late on September 10 about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and six hours later the system was upgraded to a tropical storm. Orlene moved west-northwestward while strengthening, becoming a hurricane early on September 12. The hurricane developed a distinct eye later that day and reached 95 kt winds. An upper-level disturbance caused the cyclone to turn northward toward cooler waters, which resulted in slight weakening. However, high pressure redeveloped by September 14 and steered Orlene westward, with the cyclone regaining some strength. The next day the shear increased, and gradual weakening began. Orlene became a remnant low late on September 16, with the low degenerating into a trough of low pressure and then dissipating the next day well east of the Hawaiian Islands. Hurricane Paine A series of tropical waves led to the genesis of Paine, with the first tropical wave spawning a small area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of southeastern Mexico on 12 September. Drifting westward, the low was overtaken by the developing circulation associated with a second wave. The combined system resulted in the formation of a tropical depression late on September 17 about 375 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and a tropical storm six hours later. Paine was moving generally northwestward while maintaining a small circulation, and rapidly intensified almost immediately after genesis. Paine became a hurricane early on September 19 and reached a peak intensity of 80 kt later that day about 385 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. During the next 12 hours, Paine rapidly weakened while moving over substantially cooler waters, and turned northward. By September 20 Paine became a remnant low about 150 miles southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. The low turned northeastward, and degenerated into a trough just offshore of Baja California on September 21. Tropical Storm Roslyn Roslyn originated from a low pressure associated with a tropical wave several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo on September 20. The system changed little in organization during the next several days, but a tropical depression eventually formed on September 25 about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The cyclone moved slowly northward, and strengthened into a tropical storm late that day. An upper-level disturbance caused Roslyn to turn northeastward and east-northeastward, and also produced shear over the storm, but the cyclone still strengthened to its peak intensity of 45 kt late on September 26. The storm began weakening after that time due to increasing shear and cooler waters. The system turned northward and weakened to a tropical depression late on September 28, and became a remnant low shortly after that. The remnant low turned westward, and dissipated a few hundred miles west of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico, late on September 30. Hurricane Ulika After several days of slow organization, a tropical depression formed early on September 26 about 1215 mi east-southeast of the island of Hawaii. The depression crossed 140oW into the Central Pacific later that day and became Tropical Storm Ulika (central Pacific name) early on September 27. An upper-level disturbance to the northwest of the cyclone then caused Ulika to turn northward and northeastward, and the center crossed back into the eastern Pacific a few hours later. Ulika intensified further and became a hurricane with an estimated peak intensity of 65 kt early on September 28. After that, strong shear caused the cyclone to quickly weaken to a tropical storm. The weakening Ulika turned northward and northwestward, again crossing 140oW late on September 29, where it weakened into a remnant low the next day about 850 miles east of Hawaii. Hurricane Seymour A tropical wave spawned a weak low pressure system by early on October 22 southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The low developed into a tropical depression the next day while located about 415 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, and strengthened into a tropical storm shortly after that. Seymour maintained a west-northwestward to westward motion over the next three days, and underwent a notable period of rapid intensification. From late on October 23 through late on October 25, the cyclone reaching a peak intensity of 130 kt. However, the category 4 hurricane weakened immediately after that due to increasing southwesterly shear. Seymour became a post-tropical low early on October 28 about 820 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and dissipated by early on October 30. Tropical Storm Tina Tina had an unusual origin. A disturbance broke off from the western end of a cold front over the northern Caribbean Sea in early November and moved into the eastern Pacific on November 5. This disturbance spawned a low pressure area well south of south-central Mexico a few days later that turned northward on November 10 and 11. A smaller-scale circulation formed well to the north the next day, and a tropical storm formed from this feature early on November 13 about 215 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tina drifted generally north-northeastward in strong southwesterly shear, and did not survive long as a tropical storm. Thunderstorm activity diminished early on November 14, and Tina degenerated into a remnant low. The remnant low moved westward for several days, dissipating about 400 hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on November 18. Tropical Storm Otto Hurricane Otto moved westward along the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border after moving inland over southeastern Nicaragua on 24 November. Otto exited the Pacific coast of Costa Rica near the Gulf of Papagayo several hours later as a tropical storm, and encountered less favorable atmospheric conditions, which caused the cyclone to gradually weaken. Otto weakened to a tropical depression on 26 October, and degenerated into a trough of low pressure about 490 miles south of Salina Cruz, Mexico, later that day. Acknowledgements: The cyclone summaries are based on Tropical Cyclone Reports prepared by the Specialists from the RSMC Miami Hurricane Specialist Unit. These reports are available on the Internet at www.nhc.noaa.gov Table 2. 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season statistics.
a Tropical depression (TD), maximum sustained winds 33 kt or less; tropical storm (TS), winds 34-63 kt; hurricane (H), winds 64-95 kt; major hurricane (MH), winds 96 kt or higher. b Dates begin at 0000 UTC and include all tropical and subtropical cyclone stages; non-tropical stages are excluded. c Peak intensity and minimum pressure was reached outside the eastern North Pacific hurricane basin. 
Figure 2a. Tracks of the eastern north Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes of 2016. 
Figure 2b. Tracks of the eastern north Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes of 2016. Directory: pages -> prog -> www -> tcp -> linkedfiles linkedfiles -> Regional Association IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean) Hurricane Operational Plan linkedfiles -> Regional Association IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean) Hurricane Operational Plan linkedfiles -> Review of the past hurricane season summary of the past season linkedfiles -> Review of the past hurricane season summary of the past season linkedfiles -> Hurricane Fay, 11-12th October linkedfiles -> World meteorological organization linkedfiles -> Cyclone programme linkedfiles -> Review of the past hurricane season linkedfiles -> World meteorological organization Download 3.17 Mb. Share with your friends:
|