Pakistan in 2013 research paper 12/76 6 December 2012
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Development187Though Pakistan’s rate of economic growth has been relatively rapid over the past two decades, this has not been reflected in improved development outcomes to the extent that might be expected. Although the poverty rate across the country as a whole fell during the period of particularly strong growth during 2002-06, there is also evidence that inequality between regions and individuals rose. Pakistan is unlikely to meet the Millennium Development Goal targets on primary enrolment, child mortality, maternal mortality, certain infectious diseases (Tuberculosis and malaria), and water and sanitation.188 Poverty ratesThe percentage of households living on less than $1.25 per day has fallen from 48% in 1997 to 21% in 2008, with particularly large reductions occurring between 2002 and 2006 as a result of greater foreign assistance following 9/11, a rise in remittances and debt write off. Measured against Pakistan’s own poverty line, poverty rates have fallen from 16% in 2008/09 to 11% in 2010/11. However, both sets of figures are subject to methodological issues, including the means by which price variance is measured between regions and over time. The Ministry of Finance’s 2010/11 Economic Survey also noted that recent poverty estimates show strong clustering around the poverty line, with three-quarters of the population on incomes just below or just above the threshold. Significant year-to-year swings in the measured poverty rate corroborate this, and give an insight into the economic vulnerability of those at or near the line. The PPP-led Government’s flagship initiative for directly tackling poverty in Pakistan has been the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), initiated in 2008, under which families earning less than Rs.6000 (around £40) per month receive bi-monthly cash transfers paid directly to a female member. The BISP is the key part of Pakistan’s National Social Protection Strategy, launched in 2007 with the technical assistance of the Asian Development Bank, World Bank and DFID, and is the first serious attempt to provide a social safety net with comprehensive coverage. The Asian Development Bank has also provided concessional loans of $300m to support the programme directly, in return for which it has demanded reforms, including replacing the previous system of having parliamentarians identify eligible recipients with a more objective poverty scorecard approach. However, the BISP remains tainted by its close association with a single political party, with some claiming its very name is intended to shore up the PPP vote in the forthcoming elections.189 Both within and between regions, there are significant differences in living standards. Pakistan’s regional human development index (see map) shows the highest standards of living, on average, in urban areas of Sindh province (reflecting development in Karachi), and the urban areas of Punjab. Lowest standards of living are observed in rural Sindh and rural Balochistan. The most significant reductions in poverty over the past decade have occurred in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the FATA, something the World Bank sees as being driven by high levels of foreign and domestic remittances.190 
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