Moving to Climate Variability Management

Farm households, particularly in the arid and semiarid areas of India, routinely plan for and manage uncertainty, associated with regular seasonal fluctuations and drought induced crisis. That is, rural households - peasant, pastoral, artisan or labourers - do not manage drought in isolation, but as an integral dimension of their overall livelihood systems, which are designed to handle normal, unseasonal and drought years. In other words, while local communities manage climate variability in a holistic sense, often policymakers intervene and manage the negative consequences of climate variability,
such as drought.
Traditional strategies rely on primary, secondary, and tertiary production systems of dry zones, to cope with droughts and seasonal fluctuations. These strategies have viable ingredients, compatible with the environment. Response systems have mechanisms to absorb the shock of drought and reduce drought impact. Although the primary production system (such as crops) may fail, secondary production systems (such as livestock, show resilience. The tertiary production system includes off-farm employment opportunities,
that could provide near-immunity to the impact of drought.
Farmers' adjustment responses to rainfall variability were developed over several generations. More importantly, they historically evolved, in the context of a low- population, subsistence orientation of farming and agricultural practices. In the changed circumstances of today, with increased population pressure on land, the increased role of market forces and institutional and technological changes, the farmer's traditional strategies have been losing their efficacy in coping with drought. However, the traditional household response system, presents a rudimentary climate variability management model, and public policymakers should make use of its principles and practices, to build a sustainable livelihood system.
Primary and secondary production systems, may not be able to absorb the ever-increasing rural labour force, in the dry zones. Population pressure puts severe strains on the fragile ecosystems of dry zones, aggravates land degradation, and reduces the natural resource base that supports the livelihood in dry zones. This results in reduction in productivity, so

it is imperative to reduce the various pressures on the land. The climate variability model,
emphasizes the need to facilitate the gradual transfer of large numbers of workers from farm, to non-farm jobs in high climate risk zones. By enhancing the value of agricultural raw materials, agro-based village industries will create employment and incomes, which will provide income security against drought. The tertiary production system, can also be geared to promoting local skills such as handloom work, handicrafts, and small-scale industries, that will provide greater income security.
By adopting a system approach to climate risk management in upgrading primary and secondary production systems, and by building up tertiary production systems, it is possible to transform current drought management methods from resource transfer, to resource regeneration. The climate variability approach is ecologically sound, socially acceptable, and economically beneficial. It will gradually phaseout relief expenditure and promote sustainable development.
The decentralized climate risk management approach, by building up resources during the period of normal or above normal seasons, and draw down them to live through subnormal or low rainfall years is the basic principle behind traditional livelihood practices to live with climate risks. The farmers of Rajasthan, used to buildup food fodder reserves during normal years, anticipating subsequent 2-3 drought years depending on the locations. The near assured state interventions during drought emergencies in the last four decades, have made these practices redundant. The availability of local institutional structures such as Panchayat Raj Institutions, could be utilized to revitalize traditional climate variability management practices with appropriate modifications changes.
Pilot projects need to be undertaken to assess the requirements local organizations have,
to appropriately fulfil their roles and/or to broaden their current mandates/roles. These pilot studies could be used to evolve policies to improve guidance and guidelines, on how local organizations indifferent settings could be strengthened and empowered to take on a more active role in the prevention, preparedness and management of recurrent droughts and institutionalize practical, situation specific action models, outlining

concrete steps and activities needed to strengthen mechanisms and measures for decentralized drought risk management. These should ideally be embedded, into the context of existing medium term development strategies in the regions.
The synthesis of several pilot studies and additional analysis of secondary source studies,
could lead location specific guidance, and consolidate policy recommendations on how to institutionalize decentralized climate variability management systems, in the country.
Currently, the generated climate information products only cater to broad policy making at the macro level on the one hand, or are at the fine scale of the weather, on the other.
As a result, the intermediary scaled climate events, ranging from several weeks to seasonal and inter-annual, important to a variety of climate-sensitive decisions and polices, are not being put to use for resource management at the community, local and state levels. This gap, needs to be addressed.

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