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Ford had yet one other little surprise in store, one which hints that Ford has decided to adapt a very cautious marketing strategy for the Escape hybrid program. It has now moved back the official public launch of the mid-sized SUV to 2004. A limited number of vehicles will be made available to fleets in 2003, we were told.

According to John Wallace, the former director of Th!nk Mobility, who is still under contract to Ford until August 2003, this move is to give the company time to make sure the vehicle is completely trouble-free when it goes on sale in 2004. I spoke with Philip Chizek of Ford and we are going to attempt to get one of the early 2003 versions for an extended test drive. Since EV World is headquartered just 200 miles north of Kansas City, where the vehicle is currently being built, I am hopeful that we'll be able to get one soon after they become available.
http://www.evworld.com/databases/shownews.cfm?pageid=news271202-01

Growing U.S. Need for Oil From the Mideast Is Forecast

Despite White House statements, US growing more dependent on Saudi oil.

Source: New York Times [Dec 27, 2002] WASHINGTON Dec. 25 — As President Bush seeks to reduce American reliance on oil imported from the Persian Gulf, new government studies predict that in two decades the West will be even more dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers.

Mr. Bush, asked a week ago on the ABC News program "20/20" about the importance of Saudi Arabian oil, said that "we must have an energy policy that diversifies away from dependency" on foreign sources of oil — including some that "don't like America."

Late last month, the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration forecast that in 2025 the majority — 51 percent — of world oil production would come from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. About two-thirds of OPEC production, in turn, emanates from the Persian Gulf. The Energy Information Administration, or E.I.A., says OPEC now produces 38 percent of the world's oil.

The information administration projects that Saudi Arabia will need to produce 22 million barrels a day by 2020 to meet increased world demand, far in excess of its current production of about 8 million barrels.

"We're going to rely more and more on the Middle East markets for oil," said Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the Paris-based International Energy Agency, or I.E.A. The group's recent World Energy Outlook, which estimates energy markets through 2030, mirrors the forecast of the American energy agency.

Government and industry oil experts widely agree that it makes sense for the United States to diversify its sources of energy. It is also possible that in the next decade increased oil from the Atlantic Basin and the Caspian Sea could make a short-term dent in American dependency on the Middle East.

"Our dependency on the Persian Gulf could take a slight dip before it goes up," said John Brodman, the deputy assistant secretary of energy for international energy policy. "But the basic geological fact of life is that 70 percent of the proven oil reserves are in the Middle East."

The importance of Saudi Arabia to long-term oil markets is different from its ability to produce extra oil quickly — an ability sometimes referred to as surge capacity. If oil markets were disrupted by a war in Iraq or strikes in Venezuela, only Saudi Arabia could increase its production within a few months to fill the gap.

The new forecasts highlight a fundamental quandary facing the United States: American dependence on Saudi oil limits the strategic options of the United States even as relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia have been strained since the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

President Bush's national security strategy, released in September, aimed to "enhance energy security" by having the United States work with allies to "expand the sources and types of global energy supplied, especially in the Western Hemisphere, Africa, Central Asia and the Caspian region."

The strategy did not mention the Persian Gulf region, which figures so prominently in the latest forecasts.

The ability of countries like Saudi Arabia to increase their production significantly is by no means a certainty. The Energy Information Administration estimates assume that "sufficient capital will be available to expand production capacity."

Furthermore, some oil experts question whether the region's old fields will be up to the task.

"The giant and supergiant oil fields are getting old, and some are clearly dying without being replaced," said Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior official in the National Iranian Oil Company. In an e-mail message sent from Iran, he questioned whether Saudi Arabia was capable of reaching 22 million barrels a day and said it would take "a miracle for OPEC to ever achieve a production of 50 million barrels per day (or more) as all three major institutions — I.E.A., E.I.A. and OPEC — are predicting for 2020."
http://www.evworld.com/databases/shownews.cfm?pageid=news201202-05

New Apollo Project Can Help USA Unplug Need for Oil

U.S. Representative urges USA engage in concerted effort to switch to clean energy systems.

Source: [Dec 20, 2002] By JAY INSLEE U.S. REPRESENTATIVE

Is it reasonable to worry about perpetual security threats stemming from our involvement in the Mideast? Yes, we have a right to worry because at the moment our nation has no plan for breaking the addiction to oil that so entangles us in this regional quagmire.

Do Washingtonians long to start skiing but cannot because there is no snow in the mountains this late in the year? Yes, we have a right to worry because a radical reduction in our snowpack is predicted for the Cascades due to global warming, a challenge we have no national plan to address.

To that end, Congress should seize the moment to champion a unified and

highly prioritized national program to fulfill America's destiny of leading the world to a new clean energy future. We should call for a total national commitment to harness the genius of America's can-do attitude that would design, invent and deploy the new clean energy technologies that befit this new century.

No single national endeavor has such capacity to expand our economy by tapping our innate and unique technological genius for innovation. No single national priority is so critical to reduce the risks from impending man made climate change. No single non-military action can be as effective in avoiding the security challenges that haunt us due to our addiction to Mideast oil.

Now the laws of economics, the laws of physics and the laws of politics all are aligned in a possible perfect storm, allowing us to inspire the nation to achievement just as grand as John F. Kennedy's challenge to the nation in 1961 to put a man on the moon.

This national endeavor needs a name. It needs a name invested with the historical imagery of American innovation and sense of destiny. We should call it "the New Apollo Project." What the nation achieved in building the technologies that took us to the moon now can be matched by technologies that keep our launching pad, Earth, in healthy condition.

The New Apollo Project will follow the fundamental law of economics in the new global economy -- the nation with the most advanced technology wins.andnbsp; As one representing a district that includes Boeing and Microsoft, the benefits are obvious of leading the world in computer sciences and aerospace technologies, both of which occurred in no small part due to federal government investment in the project.

But we are on the cusp of a "clean energy gap" just as worrisome as the missile gap of the Sputnik era. The dominant wind turbine manufacturer is Denmark, a country that will produce 50 percent of its electricity by wind power within the decade. The dominant photovoltaic panel producer is a German company. The dominant manufacturers of hybrid cars are in Japan.

Why should we, the greatest seedbed of technological innovation in world history, cede these emerging markets to the rest of the world?

The New Apollo Project will create jobs in the unpredictable but ultimately wildly beneficial ways that the Apollo project gave birth to a thousand new products, such as Tang, and to entire new industries, such as the computer industry. We went to the moon but we ended up on the Internet.

The New Apollo Project is also necessitated by a law of physics, which states that the presence of carbon dioxide and other byproducts of burning fossil fuels in the atmosphere traps infrared radiation reflected off the face of the Earth. This "CO2 heat trap" warms the planet and we are now seeing the melting of the Arctic ice cap, a harbinger of things to come.

But we are a responsible and innovative people, and solutions to this man-made problem are surely within our grasp. With the New Apollo Project we can jump-start the technologies that are close to providing market-based power, such as photovoltaics, and take on the more visionary horizons such as the hydrogen-based transportation system. Fear of failure should not stop us.

Lastly, the laws of politics call upon the Democratic Party to demonstrate our sense of optimism, expansive can-do Americanism and unabashed confidence that we can answer the technological call to arms. As long as we are addicted to Mideast oil, we are slaves to the animosity and backlash against the repressive regimes, which have now brought Middle Eastern violence to our own shores.

Since that day in March 1961, when a Democratic president inspired our nation to seek a higher calling that seemed beyond reach, the moon itself, our party has not issued a more stirring call.

"That's one small step for a man, and one giant leap for mankind" -- this time toward a new national energy future.

http://www.evworld.com/databases/shownews.cfm?pageid=news191202-05Nation's SUV Critics Are Gaining Traction

Source: Seattle Times [Dec 19, 2002]

by Froma Harrop

Defenders of the SUV can contain themselves no longer. A new book dedicated to bashing the big sport-utility vehicles has sent their defenders in the automotive press to the battle stations. They're pounding their keyboards, and out has come much verbal violence, though little substance. Lacking good arguments, the defenders have taken to attacking people who express anti-SUV views, rather than the views.

Count me among the SUV critics, though with some reservations. I do not think that SUV owners are necessarily headed for the hot place, as environmentally conscious clergy have recently suggested. I could even envision my having one — if, for example, I lived on a llama farm and had to transport 80-pound bags of feed up a dirt mountain road on a daily basis. That not being the case, I drive a Honda Accord.

In any event, the storm centers on a book with a long, descriptive title, "High and Mighty — SUVs: The World's Most Dangerous Vehicles and How They Got That Way." As you may guess, author Keith Bradsher does not like SUVs. Formerly chief of The New York Times Detroit bureau, Bradsher spends 441 pages condemning the safety record of SUVs, their environmental impact, their manufacturers and their buyers.

His remarks have not gone unchallenged. In the December issue of Automobile magazine, columnist David E. Davis Jr. calls Bradsher some things I cannot repeat here. He creatively describes other critics as "bicoastal glitterati" and "hysterical housewives of the '80s" — all dedicated to "denying freedom of choice to hundreds of thousands of sublimely happy SUV owners."

In AutoWeek, columnist Steve Thompson accuses SUV detractors of "vitriolic assaults," not only on freedom but on fun, as well. They are furious, he says, that "millions of people are 'allowed' to make their own choices about what to own and drive, let alone to enjoy." He calls people who hate SUVs the "Alliance against Fun."

Speaking of fun, may I interject something here? I don't find this war on terrorism to be much fun at all. Americans might be having a far better time had SUVs not increased their dependence on Mideastern oil. And not a few of them think the cause of freedom might be better served by removing the source of terrorist funding.

I'll take a pass on delving into the psychodynamics of SUV owners. There may be some truth in Bradsher's generalization of SUV drivers as vain, insecure and aggressive. But the SUV drivers I'm close to — a single mother and two elderly couples — are none of the above. It's not the fun factor but the fear factor that has them wheeling around in their 5,000-pound Oil Warriors. They think that bigger size automatically translates into greater safety, even though it's not true. SUVs are top-heavy and tend to roll over in horrifying accidents. (Bradsher offers studies showing that occupants of SUVs are actually slightly more likely to die in crashes than are occupants of cars.)

It can be amusing to wax sociological, but both sides should be careful. Karl Brauer, editor at edmunds.com, insists that SUV critics are simply losers who are envious of successful people. "What better representation of success currently exists than the SUV?" he asks. Oooh, I can think of some, and without even leaving the dealership.

When I see a nation given over to gas guzzlers, I think not of success but of failure — a failure of public policy to protect our nation's environment and its security. More depressing is the unwillingness to even lift a finger to reduce fuel consumption when the technology to do so is readily available. You'd think Detroit would embrace the improvements to make SUVs far less objectionable, including to SUV owners themselves.

Last summer, William Clay Ford Jr., chief at Ford, touched on something when he conceded that fights over fuel economy had dimmed Americans' love affair with the car. "People used to write songs about T-Birds and Corvettes," he lamented.

With Americans headed toward another war in the Mideast, the Toyota Prius has become a hip automotive statement in Hollywood. The Prius is a gas-electric hybrid made in Japan. Cameron Diaz and Leonardo DiCaprio each have one. Meanwhile, sheriff's offices in Florida have been buying these 40-mile-a-gallon vehicles, they say, to help the nation reduce its dependence on foreign oil.

When Americans start buying Japanese cars as a patriotic gesture, Detroit should worry.

Providence Journal columnist Froma Harrop's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times.

http://www.evworld.com/databases/shownews.cfm?pageid=news171202-03

Source: PR Newswire [Dec 17, 2002]

Tuesday December 17, 1:14 pm ET
NEW YORK, Dec. 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The City and State of New York have purchased a total of 574 Toyota Prius hybrid electric-gasoline cars since early last year for use by various civic agencies. This puts the City at the head of a nationwide roster of municipalities -- from Oregon to Maine -- that have found the 52-mile-per-gallon (mpg), 4-door sedans perfect for their transportation needs.

Last year, the City of New York bought 231 Prius hybrids for use by a variety of municipal agencies including Parks and Recreation, the Department of Buildings, the Department of Health and the Department of Transportation. Thanks to the cars' combination of cutting-edge technology and traditional Toyota reliability, the City has ordered another 221 this year.

In addition, Toyota has donated free use of 26 all-electric, zero-emission RAV4-EV sport utility vehicles to various New York City agencies over the past two years to support the city's recovery efforts and assist in restoring area air quality.

"With the backing of senior Toyota management in both Japan and the U.S., these donations reflect the company's commitment to the environment and community involvement," said Len Fein, product planning manager for advanced technology at Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A.

New York State's Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) bought 56 Prius hybrids for use in bus control, route management, and support operations last year. This year, the State ordered 66 more.

Introduced in 1997, the Prius is the world's first mass-produced hybrid electric-gas vehicle. It can run on gasoline, electricity or both, and never has to be plugged in -- its extremely low-emissions gasoline engine recharges the onboard battery pack when necessary. The engine also shuts off when the auto comes to a stop, so it never wastes gas or causes pollution by idling in traffic. It restarts automatically when needed.

Thanks to its breakthrough technology, the 5-seat Prius is EPA rated at 52 mpg in city driving and 45 mpg on the highway. It is also classified as a Super Ultra Low Emission Vehicle (SULEV) by the EPA, which is 90 percent cleaner than its closest competitor. The only thing cleaner is an all-electric zero-emissions vehicle.

Including New York, government agencies across the nation have purchased nearly 1,100 Prius sedans for clean, efficient transportation and official business. So far this year, California has ordered 113, the State of Washington 92, Houston 62, Los Angeles 52, Oregon 46, San Francisco 22, Austin 21, Florida DEP 19, Nevada 19, Colorado 18, Denver 15, Missouri 12, San Antonio 11 and Maine 5. Even such smaller cities as Vail, Colo. and Mesquite, Tex. have ordered one or two of the Toyota hybrids.

Worldwide, Toyota has sold more than 100,000 Prius hybrid sedans. The company also sells hybrid luxury sedans, 4-wheel-drive minivans and commuter buses in Japan. Nine out of 10 hybrid vehicles on the road today are Toyotas.
http://www.greenbiz.com/news/news_third.cfm?NewsID=23327

Fleets Can Lead The Way To Energy-Efficient Vehicles, But Need Help

Source: GreenBiz.com

WASHINGTON, D.C., Dec. 13, 2002 - Fleets can play an important role in introducing more fuel-efficient vehicles into the U.S. passenger vehicle stock but need some encouragement to do so, according to a new study by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. “Greener Fleets: Fuel Economy Progress and Prospects” finds that few fleets have attempted to maximize the fuel economy of their vehicles to date.

"Fuel costs are important to fleets, and choosing fuel-efficient vehicles can bring those costs down. Cars and trucks with high fuel economies are available right now, but unfortunately, there are obstacles to fleets' buying them," said Therese Langer, report co-author and ACEEE's transportation program director. "The structure of manufacturer discounts, lack of federal guidance, and vehicle leasing agreements all work against purchase of the fuel economy leaders."

Fleets are influential due to the sheer number of vehicles that they buy as well as their role as laboratory and showcase for new approaches to the selection and use of automobiles. While attempts to use fleets to popularize alternative fuel vehicles have been somewhat disappointing, fleets' use of fuel-efficient vehicles could catch on more easily with the general public.

The report finds that local governments have taken the lead thus far in setting fleet fuel economy policies, and that business fleets represent a large untapped potential for efficiency. Changes in basic fleet practices and interactions will be needed to move forward, however. "Fleets need to coordinate vehicle purchase and fuel management functions," noted Daniel Williams, co-author and ACEEE's transportation program assistant. "But to really make a difference, fleets will have to work together and tell manufacturers that the perennial fleet favorites, from the Stratus to the Explorer, must get more miles per gallon."

Hybrids are appealing to fleets that want to be green, but their higher cost and the fact that they don't currently bring credits towards meeting alternative fuel vehicle requirements make large-scale purchase difficult for the government and fuel provider fleets subject to mandates. The report recommends steps to promote acquisition of advanced technology vehicles, but also emphasizes the fuel savings that fleets could achieve by choosing the most fuel-efficient conventional vehicle that can do the job.

A pdf version of “Greener Fleets: Fuel Economy Progress and Prospects” can be downloaded from the Web.

More News...
http://www.msnbc.com/news/850626.asp

Who's Next/ What's Next issue of Newsweek Jan 6, 2003

By Keith Naughton

Finbarr O’Neill: Kicking Hyundai Into High Gear

Finbarr O’Neill has transformed the Korean carmaker into a player

New Hyundai CEO Finbarr O'Neill wants the company to sell 1 million cars a year by 2010, a nearly threefold increase from sales in 2002

Back in 1998, the wheels were coming off at Hyundai. Leno and Letterman regularly made the shoddy Korean car a punch line—to jokes about Yugo. The home office in Seoul couldn’t even recruit a seasoned American to jump-start the faltering company. As a last resort, the Korean bosses turned to their corporate lawyer, Finbarr O’Neill, an affable Irishman with no experience running a car company. “We were a company looking over the precipice,” says O’Neill. “I kept my law license intact as my insurance policy.”

O’NEILL WON’T HAVE TO hang his shingle any time soon. He has engineered an extraordinary turnaround at Hyundai, where sales have roared ahead 400 percent since he became CEO and now outpace Volkswagen and BMW. How did he turn around Hyundai? With guile and persistence learned from toiling in New York courtrooms and on Irish cow paths. O’Neill concocted some marketing magic four years ago—a 10-year, 100,000 mile warranty to inoculate Hyundai from its rep for miserable quality. Then he prodded the Koreans to focus on what Americans want: inexpensive, reliable, stylish cars. Hyundai is the most improved car line in J. D. Power’s quality survey, and models like its $18,000 Santa Fe SUV and $16,000 Tiburon sports car are becoming the ride of choice for Gen Y.

Now the big wheels are taking notice. Chrysler, Mazda and others have followed Hyundai’s lead and extended their warranties. GM execs are grumbling that Hyundai is succeeding because of the weak Korean won. Detroit had a similar gripe when the Japanese came on strong. Says O’Neill: “I would think GM has more to worry about.”

But O’Neill, 50, is about to give the auto establishment even more anxiety. Hyundai just broke ground on a $1 billion Alabama factory. And a new $25 million California studio is about to start crafting designs tailored to Americans’ tastes. Those moves, says O’Neill, will allow Hyundai to sell 1 million cars by 2010, a nearly threefold jump from this year’s sales of 375,000 cars. That would push it into the ranks of Toyota and Honda. Not bad for the accidental auto exec. If O’Neill can steer Hyundai from punch line to powerhouse, he’ll be the fastest driver in the car business.

Source: USA Today [Dec 31, 2002]

DETROIT — General Motors, which had been focusing on hydrogen power for alternative fuel vehicles, now plans to sell 1 million cars, pickups and sport-utility vehicles powered by gas/electric hybrid engines by mid-decade.

GM had fought making heavy investments in hybrid technology, saying it would have cars and trucks powered by hydrogen fuel cells in driveways after 2010.

But technological stumbling blocks and competitive pressures have forced GM to rethink its plans.

The fuel cells combine hydrogen and oxygen to produce energy without the pollution of gasoline. Hybrids combine an internal combustion engine and an electric motor to deliver high fuel economy and ultralow emissions.

In a hybrid, the gas engine recharges the electric motor, so no additional infrastructure is needed. But fuel cells will require service stations that can provide the hydrogen. That will take longer to establish than automakers thought in part because oil companies aren't rushing to invest in hydrogen technology at their stations until they are sure vehicles will be produced in large numbers.

Besides that, GM soon will be up against a slew of hybrid cars and SUVs from competitors. If it's out there alone without hybrids while waiting a decade for hydrogen power to develop, GM likely would become a whipping boy for regulators and environmentalists.

Currently, Toyota Prius and Honda Civic and Insight are the only hybrid vehicles available. But others are on the way:

Toyota is expected to offer a hybrid option for its Lexus RX 330 and Toyota Highlander SUVs by 2005.

Ford Motor will launch in 2004 a hybrid Escape SUV that gets 40 miles per gallon.

Chrysler has announced a hybrid Dodge Ram pickup by 2005.

GM is expected to announce that it will offer hybrid versions of its Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups, Saturn Vue and Chevrolet Equinox small SUVs, and Chevrolet Malibu sedan by 2005. The system in the Malibu can be transferred to other GM cars built off the same engineering architecture. And it turns any vehicle into all-wheel drive.

The Vue and Equinox system will raise fuel economy to 40 miles a gallon from 25, GM says.

The system on Silverado and Sierra uses an electric motor to accelerate and decelerate and to power the trucks at idle, increasing fuel economy by 15% to 20% in most cases.

J.D. Power and Associates estimates that hybrid sales will climb from 40,000 this year to 500,000 by 2006, when five automakers are selling them. In a survey of 5,200 new car buyers, Power found that 60% would "definitely" or "strongly" consider buying a hybrid.

"Consumers think hybrids are great," says Anne Hanson, an Ann Arbor, Mich., marketing consultant and former marketing chief with Ford's electric vehicle program. She says GM and Ford are right to be concerned about Toyota and Honda stepping up their hybrid offerings over the next decade.

GM says it has figured out how to make hybrids less expensively than it thought as recently as two years ago. At that time, the extra cost per vehicle neared $10,000.

January 8, 2003