Proposed pebble bed modular reactor
Report on Economical potential, markets and employment
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- The Demonstration Module Pbmr
- Various Order Scenarios
- Withdrawal of Exelon
- Potential Contribution to National Science and Technology Goals
- Conclusion
Report on Economical potential, markets and employmentIntroductionWhile the Environmental Impact Assessment focuses on the proposed demonstration Plant, the potential macro economic benefits on the commercialisation of the PBMR technology were required to be reported on by the Review Panel. In this regard, the following is recorded:
Two scenarios are addressed in this sub-chapter, namely:
The Demonstration Module PbmrAs indicated earlier in the Report the construction of the Plant will employ about 1 400 persons over a 24 month period (about an equal number will be required for decommissioning/dismantling). For operational purposes 40 employees will be required ranging from professional to administrative staff. Most of these persons will be sourced from the nearby towns. The above figures do not account for the manufacture of equipment for the Plant within South Africa. Given that about 48% (Table 22) will be local content, it is estimated that about 450 manufacturing employment opportunities will be created. During establishment of the Plant (construction) this will provide economic benefit on a local, regional and national scale albeit of limited duration. During the operation of the Plant economic benefit will largely be of a local and sub-regional nature and limited in extent, due to limited staff numbers and infrequent maintenance requirements. Various Order ScenariosFigure 7 and Table 23 respectively provide a potential Business Case, based on Marketing Research by the PBMR (Pty) Ltd (which is classified confidential) and the potential economic impact for the Business Case. From Table 23 it can be seen that about 54 500 jobs will be sustained, with a nett impact on the Balance of Payments (BoP) of some R97,600 million and an annual government income of R2,170 million over 26 years. The above figures are based on a local content target as given in Table 22 and Figure 7 Table 22: RSA Local Content Targets115
Should the above scenario realise it will place high pressure on educational institutions to produce the required number of qualified professional, technical, managerial and administrative employees. Withdrawal of ExelonExelon’s withdrawal coincided with a change of leadership and a re-assessment of the utility’s core business. In announcing their withdrawal on 16 April 2002, Exelon issued the following statement: “This decision comes after a broad-based review of Exelon’s investments that was conducted to ensure a disciplined strategy focused on the fundamentals of generation, power marketing and distribution. Becoming a reactor supplier is no longer consistent with Exelon’s strategy. “Exelon continues to believe that the PBMR technology has the potential to be viable and successful. Exelon’s economic and professional support has done a great deal to advance this technology’s development to the point where there is a defined path to the completion of the commercialisation of the technology. The project is now positioned for other companies with the appropriate expertise and core business experience to deliver the PBMR plants to power generators such as Exelon Generation”. Potential Contribution to National Science and Technology GoalsClaire Bisseker (Financial Mail – 16 August 2002) wrote: “Each year SA stagnates at the bottom of the World Competitiveness rankings, our school children perform abysmally in international science and maths competitions and more of our best brains leave the country”. The author further reports that “although South Africa’s total research expenditure is low by international standards, the amount allocated per researcher is comparable to that in several developed countries. This has enabled SA to retain pockets of world-class expertise despite its limited resources” and the report reminds one that “South Africans invented the CAT scan and the technology that underpins both the walkie-talkie and the palm pilot or that Eskom has developed a reactor that may become the next-generation nuclear power plant”. Figure 7: PBMR Business Case
However, if the skills development and the technological base in the areas of science and technology is to increase, it needs to be linked to South Africa’s industrial strategy. Should the PBMR prove its techno-economic viability and becomes commercialised then it has the potential to significantly contribute towards the broader science and technology goals of the country. Unless there are careers in South Africa for scientists and technologists, they will leave the country. To identify the extent to which the PBMR project and the commercialisation of the technology could contribute to the broader science and technology goals of South Africa, it is necessary to look at the role of the National Research Foundation (NRF). The organisation was established in 1999 as a result of The NRF Act, and reports to the Minister of Arts, Culture Science and Technology. As the government's national agency responsible for promoting and supporting basic and applied research as well as innovation, the NRF invests in knowledge, people, products and infrastructure. The NRF provides services and grants to support research and postgraduate research training, vital to the development of South Africa. It is the NRF's vision to be a key instrument in the creation of an innovative, knowledge-driven society where all citizens are empowered to contribute to a globally competitive and prosperous country. The objective of the NRF is to support and promote research through funding, human resource development and the provision of the necessary research facilities, in order to facilitate the creation of knowledge, innovation and development in all fields of the natural and social sciences, humanities and technology. In so doing, it contributes to the improvement of the quality of life of all the people of the country. Funding from the NRF is largely directed towards academic research, developing high-level human resources, and supporting the nation's national research facilities. The NRF's task is to advance research in all fields of the humanities, social and natural sciences, engineering, and technology; including indigenous knowledge. By forging strategic partnerships locally and internationally, it extends the resources that researchers need to foster and expand South Africa's research capabilities and, ultimately, to improve the quality of life for all. Other areas of its core business are to promote research capacity development (RCD), to unlock the creative potential of the research community and to establish equity and redress. The NRF fosters strategic partnerships and knowledge networks to make South Africa globally relevant and competitive. It provides research information and strategic advice. Taking the role, mission and strategy of the NRF as highlighted above, the PBMR project in its broader context, is seen to be compatible. Through the University of the Witwatersrand a post graduate diploma has been developed and implemented successfully for the second year. This post graduate diploma provides an opportunity for postgraduates to gain competency in the field of nuclear engineering. The curriculum of this diploma covers a broad range of physical, nuclear, environmental and engineering sciences. The make up of the students that have attended this accelerated post-graduate diploma to date is as follows:
  Given the employment profile of PBMR (Pty) Ltd, the NNR, Eskom and NECSA the project is already contributing towards the NRF’s and national goals of science and technology. However, it will become a significant initiator for the training and employment of scientists, technologists and engineers once the technology is commercialised and links to the commercial and industrials sector(s). Conclusion
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