Proposed pebble bed modular reactor



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Life Cycle Costing

Introduction


This sub-chapter provides information on financial provisions for the management and storage of radioactive waste, especially High Level Waste as well as the decommissioning of the proposed Plant.

The following aspects are addressed:



  • The Koeberg NPS Case : Financial provisions and the effect on tax payers and future generations

  • Financial provision for the PBMR

  • Comparative information based on international studies

The Koeberg NPS Case


By the end of 2001, Eskom had an accumulated provision of R 2.827 billion for decommissioning and rehabilitation116, of which R 1.451 billion is specifically for nuclear (Koeberg) decommissioning and waste management117. A provision is raised for the estimated decommissioning cost of nuclear power station (as with other power station plants within Eskom) and capitalised to the cost of the nuclear power station plant when it is commissioned. The estimated cost of decommissioning at the end of the productive life of the power station is based on engineering estimates and reports from independent experts118. A provision is similarly made, over the life of the power station, for the management of spent nuclear fuel assemblies and radioactive waste. The above-mentioned provision of R1.451 billion for Koeberg power station decommissioning and waste management will thus continue to increase each year, for the remainder of the life of the power station. The annual amount by which the provision is increased is based on the latest available cost information and is included in the operating expenditure. The payment dates of total expected future decommissioning costs related to Koeberg decommissioning and waste management are uncertain, but are currently expected between 2021 and 2050.119 The decommissioning provisions are kept in a segregate fund and are audited on an annual basis, including the compliance to the General Accepted Accounting Statement on provisions

A similar practice will be applied to the proposed PBMR demonstration module.



CONCLUSION

From the above it is clear that significant financial provision has and will continue to the made for the decommissioning and rehabilitation of Koeberg as well as for the management of radioactive High Level Waste.

Of note is the fact that the funds are audited annually in compliance with General Accepted Accounting Practices and Statements and published in Eskom’s Annual Report. This provides transparency and assurance to the public, that no further financial burdens will be placed on the tax payer or future generations, to manage the mentioned activities.

Financial Provisions for the proposed PBMR


  • Expenditure to Date

Due to the numerous request for financial figures by interested and affected parties (I & APs) and the range of figures quoted in the press and through the EIA process, update figures are provided below:

  • Amount spent to date (July 2002) on the PBMR project = R684.2m

  • Amount spent by Eskom to date (July 2002) of the PBMR project = R350.6m

  • Expected amount to be spent in total to end of detailed

    feasibility stage (end 2002) on the PBMR project = R1 013.3m



  • Expected amount to be spend by Eskom to end of detailed

    feasibility stage (end 2002) on the PRMB project = R460.6m



  • The cost to build the PBMR demonstration module will probably be available on completion of the project business plan (year end 2002)

CONCLUSION

The ratio of Eskom’s contribution to overall expenditure to the end of the detail feasibility stage (end 2002) is about 45% which is somewhat disproportionate to their shareholding in the project (Eskom 30% and Black Empowerment 5%).



  • Financial Provision for the PBMR

In terms of the applicants “Duty of Care” to make financial provisions for decommissioning/rehabilitation and the management/storage of radioactive waste (especially HLW) the following rationale will be applied.

Current financial figures on the cost of the Plant, lies within the range of 2.8 to 3.4$c/KWh. This range provides for capital, operational, maintenance and decommissioning cost including long-term management of waste. The confidence limit that is placed on this figure is 70% plus, as reported by the financial staff of the PBMR (Pty) Ltd.

The following provisions are including into the figures:


  • 1.5% of the Capital cost of the Plant is provided for decommissioning

  • 1.5% of the fuel cost is provided for long term storage and management of spent fuel

A segregate account (fund) will be established, that will accumulate funds over the operational life of the Plant, to execute both of the applicants obligations. This approach as well as the percentage figures for financial provision is in line with international norms.

The early retirement of the Plant will be dealt with through other provision mechanisms.



CONCLUSION

The applicant intends to follow accepted international norms and practices to ensure that sufficient funds will be accumulated to discharge its obligations.


Comparative Information


PBMR is being developed as a competitive generating system compared to other new-built options both in South Africa and overseas. The specific cost of a coal-fired power station may vary depending on its proximity to a cheap coal source, as found in the Mpumalanga province. The PBMR design target is about US$1 million per MW of installed capacity, compared to US$900 000 per MW for a new coal-fired power station in South Africa. This more than compensates for the cost of coal away from the pit-head. It is highly unlikely that the investors will proceed with this project if it is not competitive with other new-built options such as solar, hydro, wind, natural gas and biomass.

Clearly the price that electricity is sold at reflects the price to produce electricity. Therefore when Eskom builds a new power station (be it solar, wind, nuclear, coal, gas or hydro) the electricity price will reflect these capital expenditures. However, all of this is strictly controlled and regulated by the National Electricity Regulator (NER) to protect the consumer at the end of the day.

Comparative cost for electricity generation by other primary energy sources have been extracted from Kugeler et al (2001), Annexure 16a, page 3 and is presented hereunder:

Table 24: Economics of different Electricity production Options


Primary Energy

Specific investment ($/k/Wel)

Fuel costs (ct/k/Whth)

Production costs of electricity

(ct/kWhel)

Coal (world market)

1000

1

4

Natural gas

400

2

4.5

Wind power

1000

0

5 - 10

Photovoltaic (direct use)

7000

0

70

Photovoltaic (H2-storage)

7000++…

0

300

Nuclear (old plants)

600

0.5

2.5

Nuclear (new plants)

1500

0.5

3.5

Note: Based on cost in Germany (2000)

Bechtel SAIC Company (Annexure 19) conducted a comparative evaluation of PBMR and LWR (Koeberg type reactor) spent fuel disposal cost on the basis of equal energy generation of 1GWe-year. Results indicated that the PBMR disposal cost “could range from four (4) to ten (10) times that for the LWR disposal cost at equal electricity generation”.

However the PBMR appears to …….”have potential benefits in the areas of thermal management, source term and radio nuclide release rate but poses the challenge of increase volume for disposal….”. This increased volume causes the significant disposal cost penalty indicated above.

Overall Conclusion


The applicant (Eskom) has established the required mechanisms to ensure that the required financial provisions will be in place to discharge its “Duty of Care” in line with international practices.

  • For bulk electricity generation the estimated cost of the PBMR is competitive compared to that of coal, natural gas and renewables.

  • The disposal cost for PBMR spent fuel will carry a significant cost penalty compared to LWR (four to ten times higher due to increased volume and based on equal electricity generation). However increased safety benefits (i.e. thermal management, reduced source term and radio nuclide release rates) are evident.

  • The consumer(s) is protected by the National Electricity Regulator in terms of the prices that will be passed onto them by the producer and/or supplier.




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