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The Pentagon’s Guru

At 79, Marshall is in some ways Washington’s last Wise Man – the last senior official who was “present at creation,” of the nuclear age. Brilliant and inexhaustibly curious, monkishly devoted to his work, Marshall has a long record of prognosticating broad trends, like the decline of the Soviet Union

Among Marshall’s many fans is Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who has asked him to help the Bush administration define America’s defense needs for the next several decades. In the perpetual race between America and its potential foes for deadlier weapons and smarter strategy, Marshall’s mission for a generation has been to answer, in effect, who’s winning? And, more importantly, how to get ahead and stay ahead.

Now, in his deceptively quiet and non-confrontational manner, Marshall is pushing what he has termed a “revolution in military affairs.” Technology, Marshal argues, is transforming warfare and enabling weaker countries to challenge America’s military dominance. While Marshall has been careful not to spell out which parts of America’s arsenal should be junked, he has foreseen that the weapons of the future – precision-guided missiles – will turn some of the military’s most prized armaments, like the aircraft-carrier, into fat targets.

It’s hardly news that some of the fabled weapons of World War II, like the tank and the carrier, are vulnerable 60 years later. “Smart” and “brilliant” weapons, long-range munitions guided by satellite and seeking their own targets, have been threatening to overwhelm heavy-metal force and fleets for at least two decades. But the top brass (military leadership) has been reluctant to give up favorite toys, and congressmen fight to protect pet contractors in their districts. As one of the great bureaucratic survivors, Marshall, a civilian who never served in the military, has avoided taking on the generals and admirals who earned their stars by commanding carrier task forces and tank divisions. Rather, he has worked to create an intellectual framework aimed at making military strategists, as well as policymakers and politicians, smarter about future threats and how to meet them.

His first step is to try to shift the focus from Europe, the potential battlefield of the old U.S.-U.S.S.R. superpowers rivalry, to East Asia, where, Marshall believes, China is seeking hegemony. In war games staged by Marshall – typically set decades into the future – Chinese satellites-guided missiles invariably devastate American carriers.

Marshall’s track record gives him credibility. A former expert on nuclear-war-fighting at Rand Corp., the Pentagon think tank, Marshall was one of the first to see the weakness of the Soviet empire. By studying obscure demographic and economic data, he deduced that the Soviets were in crisis—and spending a far bigger slice of its national income on defense than anyone had suspected. Marshall’s answer: spend the Soviets into the ground. When the Soviet empire collapsed after the Reagan-era defense-spending spree, Marshall seemed clairvoyant.

Bureaucratically, he has slipped up only once. In 1987 he persuaded Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger to set up a Competitive Strategies Office. It indiscreetly suggested that carriers might one day be vulnerable to long-range missiles. The Joint Chiefs of Staff had the office shut down. Marshall is unlikely to make that mistake again: a mention of carrier vulnerability was recently deleted from an early draft of his strategy review. It will be up to Rumsfeld – and ultimately George W. Bush – to demand hard choices. In a 1999 campaign speech largely written by a Marshall disciple, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, Bush pledged to “skip a generation” of weapons. If Bush can accomplish this goal, it will be a testament to the wisdom – and staying power – of Andy Marshall.

1. 
   Andrew Marshall is admired for his…
   

1. 
   devotion to work
   
2. 
   revolutionary ideas
   
3. 
   long service
   
4. 
   public relations skills
   

2. 
   Marshall’s main mission has been to assess…
   

1. 
   future changes in the world
   
2. 
   Bush’s defense policy
   
3. 
   America’s comparative strength
   
4. 
   who America’s enemies are
   

3. 
   Marshall argues that countries weaker than America may…
   

1. 
   acquire technological superiority
   
2. 
   acquire military superiority
   
3. 
   junk America’s arsenal
   
4. 
   destroy important objectives
   

4. 
   The threat to tanks and aircraft carriers from missiles became apparent…
   

1. 
   around 60 years ago
   
2. 
   at least 20 years ago
   
3. 
   when satellites were invented
   
4. 
   when target-seeking was invented
   

5. 
   Marshall believes that China at present…
   

1. 
   is more threatening than Russia
   
2. 
   has achieved hegemony in East Asia
   
3. 
   has superior satellite-guided missiles
   
4. 
   can destroy American aircraft carriers
   

6. 
   Marshall recognized the weakness of the Soviet Union by studying…
   

1. 
   nuclear war fighting
   
2. 
   the Soviet Army
   
3. 
   the Soviet economy
   
4. 
   Reagan’s defense spending
   

7. 
   Since his mistake in 1987, Marshall has learned…
   

1. 
   to retain aircraft carriers
   
2. 
   to make carriers less vulnerable
   
3. 
   not to set up unnecessary offices
   
4. 
   not to provoke the Joint Chiefs of Staff