2. THREAT OF DISEASE IS EXAGGERATED
SK/C03.05) David G. Victor [Professor of Law, Stanford U.], THE NATIONAL INTEREST, November-December 2007, p. 48, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The dangers of disease have caused particular alarm in the advanced industrialized world, partly because microbial threats are good fodder for the imagination. But none of these scenarios hold up because the scope of all climate-sensitive diseases is mainly determined by the prevalence of institutions to prevent and contain them rather than the raw climatic factors that determine where a disease might theoretically exist.
3. CLIMATE CHANGE WON’T TRIGGER RESOURCE WARS
SK/C03.06) Kevin Whitelaw, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 25, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But the intelligence community concluded that climate change alone is "unlikely to trigger state failure" or full-blown water wars between countries battling over increasingly scarce water resources.
4. ALLEGED CATASTROPHIC EFFECTS ARE MERE SPECULATION
SK/C03.07) Walter Starck [marine scientist], NATIONAL OBSERVER - AUSTRALIA AND WORLD AFFAIRS, Winter 2008, p. 43, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. As for the widely publicised catastrophic consequences of warming, these are not even predicted by the models but are only speculations regarding such warming. Complex interactive models can be constructed and adjusted to produce any desired result. Without verification they reflect only the ideas on which they are based.
5. HUMANS CAN ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE
SK/C03.08) S. Fred Singer [Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, U. of Virginia], USA TODAY MAGAZINE, March 2008, p. 16, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. To repeat a point made earlier--climate has been changing cyclically for at least 1,000,000 years and has shown huge variations over geological time. Human beings have adapted well, and will continue to do so.
SK/C04. ALTERNATIVE FUELS ARE DEVELOPING WITHOUT MANDATE
1. BAILOUT LAW INCLUDED INCENTIVES FOR ALTERNATIVES
SK/C04.01) Ashlea Ebeling, FORBES, November 24, 2008, p. 150, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The new law creates a credit of up to $7,500 for the first 250,000 buyers of plug-in electric vehicles, beginning in 2009. So far the Chevy Volt, scheduled to come on the market in 2010 with an estimated $40,000 sticker price, is the only vehicle that seems to qualify. Meanwhile, the old hybrid-car tax credit of up to $3,150 is still available for certain models but not the most popular ones.
2. ENERGY ACT OF 2007 INCLUDED CELLULOSIC BIOFUEL INCENTIVES
SK/C04.02) Megan Phelps, MOTHER EARTH NEWS, April-May 2008, p. 21, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The good news is that the new law [Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007] favors advanced biofuels.
3. AUTO INDUSTRY IS ADJUSTING TO MARKET CHANGES
SK/C04.03) Jennifer Weeks, CQ RESEARCHER, February 29, 2008, p. 210. Now, with gas prices high and new fuel-efficiency standards signed into law, U.S. automakers are terminating some SUV lines, converting others to smaller "crossovers" and putting more money into alternative vehicles.
SK/C04.04) Rana Foroohar, NEWSWEEK INTERNATIONAL, June 9, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Ford has slashed production of its F-series pickup trucks, an American best seller for 20 years. Meanwhile, Nissan unveiled a $115 million new plant outside Tokyo designed to build lithium-ion fuel cells to power a new generation of battery cars.
4. ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND PLUG-IN HYBRIDS ARE ALMOST HERE
SK/C04.05) James B. Treece, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 17, 2008, p. 3, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Electric and plug-in hybrid cars will arrive in dealerships in just two years or so, several speakers at the Automotive News Green Car Conference and Exhibition said on Thursday, Nov. 13.
SK/C04.06) James B. Treece, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 17, 2008, p. 3, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Talk about plug-in hybrids has centered on the Chevrolet Volt, Saturn Vue plug-in and Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid, all due in 2009 or 2010. But more electric-powered cars are coming. In 2010, Nissan Motor Co.'s first electric vehicle will be launched in select markets. In 2012, it rolls out globally.
5. ALL VEHICLES WILL BY HYBRIDS BY 2020
SK/C04.07) MOTOR AGE, September 2008, p. 72, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The results of a recent study predict the future of automotives: all vehicles will run on hybrid power by 2020. Conducted by IBM Global Business Services, the study interviewed 125 global industry executives who report all vehicles will have some type of hybrid power system within 12 years. Options could include micro hybrids that power down when a vehicle is stopped, regenerative braking that builds power when a vehicle is stopping, mild hybrids that provide extra power but cannot run independently or full hybrids that can run on electric motors.
6. HYDROGEN-FUELED CARS WILL BE HERE BEFORE 2020
SK/C04.08) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 26, 2007, p. 33, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Whether used to power fuel cells or internal combustion engines, hydrogen promises to be a cleaner fuel than gasoline or diesel. BMW launched a small fleet of its hydrogen-fueled 7-series sedans last year. General Motors is letting folks in three cities drive its hydrogen Chevrolet Equinox crossovers. When it will reach the market: Between 2010 and 2020.
SK/C04.09) Eli Kintisch, DISCOVER, January 2007, p. 20, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In September both companies [BMW & GM] announced plans for hydrogen-capable cars. The hydrogen would be derived from fossil fuels while researchers explore other methods of production. GM's fuel cell SUV, Sequel, operates with an energy efficiency equivalent to 39 miles per gallon of gasoline.
SK/C04.10) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, February 25, 2008, p. 4, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Each of the Detroit 3 is spending more on hydrogen r&d for fuel cell vehicles than the federal government, the GAO report notes. Each automaker has indicated plans to spend an additional $6 billion to $10 billion through 2015.
7. VEHICLES ALREADY RUN ON NATURAL GAS & LIQUEFIED COAL
SK/C04.11) James Eaves [Professor of Finance & Insurance, Laval University, Canada] & Stephen Eaves, REGULATION, Fall 2007, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. If the objective of promoting ethanol is to rely more on domestic energy sources, then perhaps it would be more efficient to use natural gas and liquefied coal to power cars. Vehicles compatible with those energy sources have been operating on U.S. roadways for years, and reliance on those fuels would not disrupt the food supply.
SK/C05. BICYCLES ARE AN ALTERNATIVE
1. BAILOUT LAW INCLUDED INCENTIVES FOR BICYCLES
SK/C05.01) Ashlea Ebeling, FORBES, November 24, 2008, p. 150, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Congress even found a place in the bailout for a bicycle tax benefit--an idea that Representative Earl Blumenauer (D--Ore.), who bikes to work, has been peddling for years. Beginning in 2009 employers who provide transit benefits (either pretax salary reduction plans or prepaid vouchers) for bus, train, van pooling or parking can provide up to $20 a month in tax-free bicycling benefits.
2. USE OF BICYCLES IS INCREASING
SK/C05.02) Adam Voiland, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 20, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In a country where most grown-ups regard bicycles as kid stuff, there are plenty of signs that attitudes are beginning to shift. Bike stores and manufacturers across the nation are reporting significant upticks lately in sales. "They're selling out of all the commuting bikes--all bikes, by the way--that they can get their hands on," says Bill Fields, a consultant who has followed the bicycle industry for decades and anticipates a 20 percent bump in the "comfort bike" category, which includes commuting bikes, by year's end.
SK/C05.03) Lester R. Brown [President, Earth Policy Institute], USA TODAY MAGAZINE, January 2008, p. 27, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Bicycle manufacturing and servicing is a booming industry. As recently as 1965, world production of cars and bikes essentially was the same, with each at nearly 20,000,000, but bike production has climbed to well over 100,000,000 per year compared with around 42,000,000 cars.
SK/C05.04) Lester R. Brown [President, Earth Policy Institute], THE FUTURIST, November-December 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Complete Streets promotes pedestrian- and bike-friendly design in urban centers. Barbara McCann, head of the Coalition, reports that as of July 2007, "complete streets" policies are in place in 14 states and 52 cities. Countries that have well-developed urban transit systems and a mature bicycle infrastructure are much better positioned to withstand the stresses of a downturn in world oil production than are countries whose only transport option is the car. With a full array of walking and biking options, the number of trips by car can easily be cut by 10%-20%
SK/C05.05) Lester R. Brown [President, Earth Policy Institute], THE FUTURIST, November-December 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Today, nearly 75% of U.S. police departments serving populations of 50,000 or more have routine patrols by bicycle. Officers on bikes typically make 50% more arrests per day than officers in squad cars. The cost of operating a bicycle is trivial compared with that of a police car, according to the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics.
SK/C06. ALTERNATIVE FUELS CANNOT REPLACE GASOLINE
1. THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR GASOLINE
SK/C06.01) J. Robinson West, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, July 21, 2008, p. 15, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Many politicians want to substitute other domestically produced liquid fuels for oil and assure the public that they are around the corner. They are not. There is now no liquid fuel that can largely replace oil for transportation. We are stuck because of the scale of the industry and--despite criticism--oil's efficiency. A gallon of gas, refined from African oil, is cheaper than a gallon of Maine sparkling water. Political alternatives like corn-based ethanol have required huge subsidies and convulsed food markets but produced only 430,000 barrels per day in 2007-- 2 percent of U.S. oil consumption.
2. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE IS A SHAM
SK/C06.02) Paul Roberts, MOTHER JONES, May-June 2008, p. 30, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Despite its immense appeal, energy independence is a nonstarter--a populist charade masquerading as energy strategy that's no more likely to succeed (and could be even more damaging) than it was when Nixon declared war on foreign oil in the 1970s. Not only have we no realistic substitute for the oceans of oil we import, but many of the crash programs being touted as a way to quickly develop oil replacements--"clean coal," for example, or biofuels--come at a substantial environmental and political cost.
SK/C06.03) J. Robinson West, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, July 21, 2008, p. 15, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. "Energy independence" is a favored placebo--a rarely defined goal trotted out for energy crises but not achieved. A sensible definition: a condition in which foreign powers can neither interrupt our energy supplies nor affect prices. Such "independence" will be unattainable under John McCain or Barack Obama. We cannot decouple U.S. petroleum prices from world markets. Oil is easily transported, and barrels are interchangeable. Rising prices in Houston mean the same in Riyadh, Rotterdam, and Tokyo. Even if we exported oil--we have not for nearly 60 years--foreign forces would still drive domestic prices.
SK/C06.04) Mortimer B. Zuckerman, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, July 21, 2008, p. 118, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The American people are not foolish. Every day we have a lesson in the surging cost of oil; we know that the dream of energy independence is really just a delusion for a country that produces only a third of the oil it uses. Whatever the rhetoric, no combination of solar, wind, ethanol, biodiesel, or anything else will allow us independence in the foreseeable future.
SK/C06.05) George Leef, REGULATION, Summer 2008, p. 49, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. A political candidate might as well come out against motherhood as to question the need for energy independence. That is too bad because energy independence is a stupendously foolish, costly, and ultimately impossible idea. So argues journalist Robert Bryce in his iconoclastic book Gusher of Lies. Bryce readily admits that until recently he was among those who worshipped in the Church of Energy Independence, but has now become a complete heretic. Instead of increased government meddling, he wants to see it get out of the energy market altogether because there is nothing it can do to improve on the free market and much that will be wasteful and even dangerous.
SK/C06.06) Robert J. Samuelson, NEWSWEEK, August 25, 2008, p. 37, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In 2006, coal, oil and natural gas provided 85 percent of U.S. energy. In 2025, regardless of what we do, they will almost certainly remain the leading energy sources. We will still import huge volumes of oil and face global disruptions.
SK/C06.07) Robert J. Samuelson, NEWSWEEK, August 25, 2008, p. 37, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Senator McCain proposes achieving "strategic independence" by 2025--a seductive but empty phrase. In 2025, oil would still represent a third or more of total energy use (it was two fifths in 2006), with more than half imported, projects the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Although these figures could change, dependence on foreign oil is unavoidable.
SK/C07. ETHANOL IS DOOMED TO FAILURE
1. ETHANOL PRODUCTION YIELDS NO NET INCREASE IN ENERGY
SK/C07.01) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Most experts estimate it takes 1 gallon of fossil fuel to create 1.3 gallons of corn-based ethanol, but a few have claimed the process burns more energy than it creates. "Most estimates leave out the energy from farm labor, the energy to make and manufacture the tractor and the energy required for irrigation," says David Pimentel, a Cornell University entomology professor and a former consulting ecologist to the White House staff. "By omitting nearly half of the inputs, they're able to demonstrate that the corn plant is collecting more energy than it takes to make the ethanol. But it just isn't true."
2. ETHANOL CAN DISPLACE ONLY MINISCULE AMOUNT OF GASOLINE
SK/C07.02) James Eaves [Professor of Finance & Insurance, Laval University, Canada] & Stephen Eaves, REGULATION, Fall 2007, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. When we assume the ethanol production process is fully renewable, it would take all the corn in the country to displace about 3.5 percent of our gasoline consumption--only slightly more than we could displace by making sure drivers' tires are inflated properly.
3. ETHANOL USAGE ACTUALLY INCREASES CARBON EMISSIONS
SK/C07.03) Benjamin Senauer [Professor of Applied Economics, U. of Minnesota], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1226, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. A central argument for biofuels, that they reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to fossil fuels, has been undermined by recently published scientific articles. Fargione et al. (2008) calculate that the expansion of biofuels results in the conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural use, which creates a "carbon debt" by releasing the CO2 stored in the natural biomass and undisturbed soil. This conversion creates a debt 17 to 420 times greater than the annual reduction in GHG emissions from biofuels compared to fossil fuels, depending on the crop and native ecosystem. Converting wild Brazilian cerrado (savanna) to sugarcane production takes 17 years to repay the carbon debt, and 423 years for peatland rainforest in Southeast Asia converted to palm oil for biodiesel.
SK/C07.04) Benjamin Senauer [Professor of Applied Economics, U. of Minnesota], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1226, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Searchinger et al. (2008) argue that natural habitats will be converted to new cropland in response to the higher prices caused by the conversion of crops to biofuels. Due to land use changes, corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% reduction in GHG emissions as previously calculated, doubles emissions over 30 years and increases GHG for 167 years. It was recently reported that 750,000 acres of Brazilian rainforest (an area the size of Rhode Island) was destroyed in just the last half of 2007 due to the spread of cropland and pasture (Grunwald 2008). U.S. farmers are beginning to remove substantial amounts of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) (Streitfeld 2008).
4. ETHANOL IS VULNERABLE TO SUPPLY INTERRUPTIONS
SK/C07.05) James Eaves [Professor of Finance & Insurance, Laval University, Canada] & Stephen Eaves, REGULATION, Fall 2007, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Relying on ethanol exposes the economy to an entirely new risk--an undesirable link between ethanol supply disruptions and ethanol demand shocks created by their joint dependency on weather. In the case of gasoline, there is no obvious link. For example, during a particularly hot and dry summer the demand and price for gasoline increases as we drive longer distances to escape the heat, spend more time on congested roads, and use our air conditioning more often. But the hot weather does not increase the cost of producing gasoline, so increases in the price of gas have an unambiguously positive impact on the supply of gas.
5. USE OF ETHANOL WILL INCREASE RESPIRATORY DEATHS
SK/C07.06) Tracy Hampton, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, May 16, 2007, p. 2068, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Many of the vehicles in the U.S. run on ethanol as an alternative fuel instead of gasoline. But the number of respiratory-related deaths and hospitalization would likely increase due to it.
6. ETHANOL PRODUCTION CAUSES MASS STARVATION
a. PRODUCTION FROM CORN CAUSES FOOD PRICES TO SOAR
SK/C07.07) Benjamin Senauer [Professor of Applied Economics, U. of Minnesota], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1226, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Both the Economist (2007) and Lester Brown (2008) argue that biofuels, especially U.S. corn-based ethanol, were the primary cause of the surge in prices in 2007. U.S. ethanol production basically doubled between 2004 and 2007 and, in 2007 removed some 2.3 billion bushels from the global food supply chain (Eidman 2008). The huge increase in the acreage planted to corn in 2007 reduced the plantings of other crops, particularly soybeans, thus increasing their prices.
b. RISING FOOD PRICES CAUSE THOUSANDS TO STARVE
SK/C07.08) Mark Lynas, NEW STATESMAN, April 21, 2008, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Now rising demand for transport fuel--particularly in rich countries--is sucking supply away from the world food market and increasing the upward pressure on prices. In the words of Josette Sheeran, executive director of the UN World Food Programme (WFP): "We are seeing food in many places in the world priced at fuel levels," with increasing quantities of food "being bought by energy markets" for biofuels. Rising oil prices feed back into the process. With food and fuel markets intertwined, increases in the price of oil are shadowed by increases in the price of grain. The real-world result from this structural shift may be that hundreds of thousands of people starve in the next few years--unless policies promoting biofuels are urgently reversed.
SK/C08. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS ARE DOOMED TO FAILURE
1. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS ARE A FANTASY
SK/C08.01) Stephen Spruiell, NATIONAL REVIEW, October 20, 2008, p. 26, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The gang's ["Gang of 10" Senators—five Republicans and five Democrats] proposal called for a sevenfold increase in federal funding for biofuels research--from around $350 million to nearly $3 billion per year. Most of this money would fund research into cellulosic ethanol, which is produced from nonedible plant matter like wood chips and switchgrass. The concept is similar to the "Mr. Fusion" device from Back to the Future: Take a bunch of garbage that nobody wants and turn it into energy. And, like Back to the Future, cellulosic ethanol is pure fantasy.
SK/C08.02) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. To be sure, some experts have no more faith in cellulosic than they have in corn-based ethanol. They say cellulosic technology is unproven, largely because there's not a single commercial plant in the world that's converting cellulose to ethanol, despite the large sums of seed money behind it. "Despite all the research, there's no evidence that cellulose is going to be profitable in terms of energy or economics," says Pimentel of Cornell.
SK/C08.03) J. Robinson West, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, July 21, 2008, p. 15, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Breakthrough technologies, such as cellulosic ethanol, are theoretically attractive--but don't exist.
2. THEY COULD DISPLACE ONLY A MINISCULE AMOUNT OF GASOLINE
SK/C08.04) Hans Greimel, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, March 3, 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But Takeo Fukui, president of Honda Motor Co., says if the fuel is to go mainstream, it will have to be derived from nonedible biomass, not food crops. That is because supplies of crops such as corn and sugar cane are limited and can't meet demand for food and fuel. Furthermore, even if ethanol is widely produced from biomass such as leaves and stalks, it will only meet 20 percent of the current demand for gasoline, he said here last week.
3. SWITCHGRASS IS NOT A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE
SK/C08.05) Michael Grunwald, TIME, April 7, 2008, p. 40, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But several new studies show the biofuel boom is doing exactly the opposite of what its proponents intended: it's dramatically accelerating global warming, imperiling the planet in the name of saving it. Corn ethanol, always environmentally suspect, turns out to be environmentally disastrous. Even cellulosic ethanol made from switchgrass, which has been promoted by eco-activists and eco-investors as well as by President Bush as the fuel of the future, looks less green than oil-derived gasoline.
4. BIOFUELS FROM ALGAE ARE NOT A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE
SK/C08.06) Asjylyn Loder, THE ST. PETERSBURG TIMES, September 14, 2008, p. 1D, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Custom Newspapers. Since algae eats carbon dioxide, Tennant [Vice-President, Petro Algae] hopes he can locate algae farms near power plants, and get paid to take their carbon dioxide problem off their hands. Even with these advances, Benneman [consultant, Dept. of Energy] said algae oils will still only supply a fraction of the marketplace for alternative energy. "None of these things are going to replace oil," Benemann said.
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