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2.1Current and Future Cold Market in Europe

The impact of cooling in Europe is increasing, yet substantive data, statistics and prognoses on the current cold market in Europe and the energy consumption remains scarce. At present, the use of energy for comfort cooling is to a high degree unknown on an aggregated EU level. In contrast to the heat market, estimations and predictions for cooling are more complex [ECOHEATCOOL 2006], since the electricity use for cooling is usually embedded in the buildings total electricity consumption. The usage is divided on several electricity consumption equipment and is very seldom monitored on an aggregated level. Moreover, aggregated benchmarking information are not systematically collected. Since the estimation of electricity use is also built up from various sources (such as chillers, auxiliary equipment, re-cooling systems, and even ventilation systems) it is a complex task to monitor and to analyze the cooling energy use in buildings. Data for the services sector energy consumption is less detailed and complete than that for the residential sector [Weiss et al. 2005]. Reliable estimations on cooling energy consumption have to be made either by means of the cooling capacity of sold or installed equipment and the assumptions of the cooling demand or by means of costly surveys. However, all reliable sources document a strong increase of the cooled and air-conditioned built environment in Europe. A continuous growth is expected in both the residential and service sector.

So far, in most European countries, the amount of energy required for heating is greater by far than the energy used for space cooling. But, due to high internal loads, the proliferation of fashionable glass facades, thermal insulation, and rising standards of comfort, the cooled area is is steadily increasing. Events like the extraordinary hot summer of 2003 are accelerating this trend and steadily rising mean annual temperatures are increasing the specific energy demand for space cooling [Aebische et al. 2007]. Considering air conditioning in the residential sector, a correlation of the market saturation with the climate is observed. The non-domestic market probably has different dynamics but there is little reliable information on these. The current level of sales suggests that climate is less influential, with relatively high levels of sales (relative to residential use) in moderate climates. In the USA and Japan and, as far as can be ascertained in Europe, market penetration into non-domestic buildings is higher than into dwellings (USA is 80 % commercial and 65 % residential, Japan is 100 % commercial and 85 % residential, Europe is 27 % commercial and 5 5 residential) [Riviere et al. 2008].

The European market for air-conditioning is relative young and still growing substantially. The installed stock is far from the saturation levels seen in other parts of the world and the sales figures show no sign of approaching market saturation. There are very few relevant statistics on the stock of installed products, but rather more on sales – though these are not comprehensive [Riviere et al. 2008].

The relative growth of electricity demand is largest in southern countries due to general comfort requirement which call for more cooling, a trend which in reinforced slightly by the changing climate. Although the share of electricity for cooling purposes will increase in all countries, it does so at a significantly higher level in southern European countries, namely by about 45% [Jochem and Schade 2009]. Because of a strongly differential growth rate across EU Member States, the relative share of the total EU cooled floor-area of countries such as France or Germany, which was large in the 19080’s has become small in the 1990’s. The high growth in central air-conditioning systems installed in Italy and Spain means that these countries now account for more than 50 % of the EU market.

In the building sector, decentralized air-conditioning units dominate the distribution systems, district cooling accounts for 1 to 2 % of the cooling market. In 2007, 500 Mio Euros were generated by selling cooling systems, air-conditioning systems and ventilation systems in Germany. Therefore, Germany is European market leader followed by Italy with a revenue of 460 Mio Euros. The major part of the revenue is contributed by air-conditioning systems (50.000 units) with app. 500 million Euros, followed by water-based chillers (7.000 units) with 150 million Euros [Chillventa 2009].

In the EU, the energy efficiency of the AC systems is not presently a criterion that plays any major role in the AC design and installation process; rather the efficiency improvements that do occur tend to happen haphazardly [Adnot et al. 2003]. Air-conditioning constitutes a rapidly growing electrical end-use in the European Union, yet the possibilities for improving its energy efficiency have not been fully investigated [Adnot et al. 2003]. The average EER is about 3.57 for water-based systems whereas it is 2.52 for systems with air as a rejection medium under conditions of a testing standard [Adnot et al. 2003]. For the electricity consumption to meet the cooling load, it is assumed that system losses (auxiliary heat supplementary load, distribution losses, suboptimal control, etc) accounts for 25 % of the load. The aggregated seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) for cooling is expected to be 2. Additional electricity consumption for air-handling units, pumps and other auxiliaries not taken into account in the SEER value is 25 % of the electric consumption [Riviere et al. 2010].

Figure 1 Current and future cooling market in Europe.

Chart 1: Calculated specific cooling energy demand [kWh_therm/m²a] for selected European countries, considering the residential and service building sector [ECOHEATCOOL 2006]; The calculation methods includes: frequency of outdoor temperatures, national electricity demand variations, and specific market information from international databases, international statistical reports and commercial market reports.

Chart 2: Total residential and service area [million m²] [ECOHEATCOOL 2006].

Chart 3: Annual electrical energy [TWh] available to the inland market for the period 19986 to 2002 [ECOHEATCOOL 2006].

Chart 4: Future development of energy consumption for air conditioning [TWh] [Weiss et al. 2005]; Results for the expected development of energy consumption (electricity) for air conditioning. “The calculation of the long-term energy consumption for air conditioning is based on a bottom up model and considers both impacts, the current diffusion of technology and the influence of higher cooling demand due to increasing cooling degree days from global warming”.

Chart 5: Energy consumption got air conditioning in the service sector in the service sector [TWh] [Weiss et al. 2005].

Chart 6: Electrical energy demand for cooling of four European regions (EU 27+2) [TWh] [Jochem and Schade 2009].

Chart 7: Area conditioned in each country and year. The cooled area is estimated in a way compatible with manufactures statistics (capacities, number of pieces) and with national statistics (square meters cooled) [Adnot et al. 2003].

Chart 8: National shares of installed central air-conditioning floor area in EU buildings in 1998 [Adnot et al. 2003].

Figure 1 Left: Share of total final energy consumption [%] distributed to the major energy service sectors in EU-27 for 2006 [Weiss et al. 2005]. Right: AC market share by AC type expressed in terms of newly installed cooled-area in EU buildings in 1998 [Adnot et al. 2003].