Report itu-r m. 2243 (11/2011)

A4.1 Regulator views

In a report developed by Telecommunications Council of Japan, the following information and figures were assumed in order to estimate the traffic volume for future mobile service.

– The spreading ratio of LTE/WiMAX as a whole, in mobile communication systems in Japan, was assumed to be 25% in 2012.

– It would be expected that LTE/WiMAX system could be a core mobile communication system in 2017 in Japan and its occupation percentage in the mobile service could be around 90%.

The report also investigated the changes of services and associated contents of mobile communication systems during the migration to LTE/WiMAX system. A simulation based on the various corresponding assumptions and change of the services indicated that the increase ratio of the traffic volume in Japan from 2007 to 2017 would be about 200 times.

It is also recognized that frequency usage efficiency should be increased by the development of technology. However, the introduction of such a highly efficient system would not be capable to cope with the expected vast increase of traffic volume if there had been no new additional frequency allocation for mobile communication system.

Figure A4.1 shows a forecast of mobile data traffic typically for China. It clearly indicates that there will be a rapid growth period of mobile data traffic in China in coming years, and mobile data traffic will be 494.53 PB per month in 2015, which is around 40 times of that in 2010.

FIGURE A4.1

Figure A4.2 shows a forecast of mobile subscriptions in China up to year 2020. The subscriptions will continue to grow in next decade in China.

A4.2 Industry views

As introduced in Section 2, a significant increase of mobile cellular subscribers and users has happened in the year 2006-2010. This trend would maintain in coming years because more and more people from emerging markets will become IMT users. Traffic of voice service – once dominated the total mobile traffic – is still growing. However, usage of some new mobile applications like music downloading, video streaming, mobile gaming and access to media rich social networks have increased rapidly in past years resulting in an exponential growth of global mobile data traffic, which outnumbered voice traffic during December 2009⁶⁵.

A4.2.1 New mobile traffic forecasts by UMTS Forum

The new traffic forecasts by UMTS Forum⁶⁶ presented thereafter correspond to the following:

– Traffic forecasts presented in this section represent the uplink and downlink traffic for voice and data¨.

– The traffic taken into account is the traffic transported on mobile networks using licensed spectrum.

– WiFi offloading is not taken into account⁶⁷.

– The forecasts include the traffic managed by Femtocells.

– The forecasts presented in this report do not take into account RFID traffic or any other traffic on unlicensed frequency bands.

A4.2.1.1 Main hypothesis

Global mobile device market

Table A4.1 shows that at mid-2010, there were already more than 5 billion mobile users worldwide (excluding the M2M market). 2020 forecasts show that mobile penetration should reach 119% of the population (excluding the M2M market).

TABLE A4.1

Mobile users’ forecasts
(excluding M2M – dates refer to end of corresponding year)

Global Base (million)	2010	2015	2020
Europe	1,014	1,151	1,242
Americas68	898	1,109	1,302
Asia	2,570	3,780	4,764
Rest of the world69	794	1,238	1,730
World	5,275	7,278	9,038

The global mobile device market in our 2010 assumptions differ from those presented in Report ITU-R M.2072 Chapter 6.2.6: our 2010 assumptions lead us to predict a 119% penetration rate in 2020 (excluding M2M). Asia-Pacific will still be home to the largest share of total mobile subscriptions in 2020 with Americas taking the number 2 position ahead of Europe.

With M2M subscriptions, the total number of subscriptions comes close to 10 billion. M2M devices are expected to represent 6.7% of the subscriptions in 2020.

TABLE A4.2

Mobile forecasts
(including M2M – dates refer to end of corresponding year)

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