Report itu-r m. 2243 (11/2011)
Mobile data traffic forecast
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- 5 Conclusions
4.2 Mobile data traffic forecastHaving seen the trends identified in previous section, there are several forecasts of global data traffic as depicted in Figure 8. This figure illustrates a range of forecasts which have been published from various multiple external sources, and the average curve which results from this set of individual forecasts. For many sources, forecasts in Figure 8 are based on the most up-to-date reports which were updated over the time span between the end of 2010 and May 201120. FIGURE 8 Mobile global data traffic estimates from 2011 to 2015 based on multiple sources 
It can be seen from Figure 8 that there are some similarities in short term estimates, but variations in the long term forecasts. Some discrepancies are related to different assumptions assumed in each forecasts. Based on existing mobile broadband growth and new trends, several new traffic estimates, as depicted in Figure 8 from multiple sources, have been concluded which forecast extensively more mobile broadband traffic compared to estimates done before WRC-07. Moreover, when looking at the traffic forecasts over the next decade, one source (UMTS Forum)21 anticipates total mobile traffic of more than 127 Exabytes (EB) in 2020 that represents a 33 times increase compared with 2010 figures. According to the same source, Asia will represent 34.3% of total world mobile traffic while Europe and The Americas (including North, Central and South America) represent 22% and 21.4%, respectively as depicted in Figure 9. FIGURE 9
Finally, when looking deeper into the future beyond 2020, the same source anticipates global mobile traffic of 350 EB in 2025 (worldwide) representing a 174% increase compared to 2020. However, it should be noted that the 2025 forecasts here are given in order to show mobile traffic trends, but that the model used was designed for 2010-2020. Given this uncertainty this information should be considered as informative only at this stage. 5 ConclusionsMobile communications including mobile broadband communications have been playing important roles in the economic and social developments of both developed and developing countries, such as growth of economy, mitigation of digital divide, improvement of life quality, and facilitation of other industries. Rapid uptake of smart phones, tablets and innovative mobile applications created by users has resulted in a tremendous increase in the volume of mobile data traffic which was not foreseen before WRC-07. The current data traffic (in year 2010) is more than 5 times greater than some of the estimates for Report ITU-R M.2072. Moreover, the actual traffic being experienced by some operators today (year 2011) is even greater than some of the 2020 forecasts given in Report ITU-R M.2072. Developing countries will also play an important role in the next period, due to their large markets and relatively low deployment levels of IMT up until now. With the introduction of higher capability networks and enhanced devices, even more user friendly interfaces will emerge to make mobile applications more generally accessible. New traffic forecasts are provided by a number of industry sources for the forecast up to 2015 and one source for the forecast between 2015 and 2020 taking into account new market trends and market drivers. This Report reviews both the market and traffic forecasts for IMT that were developed in previous study periods (2000-2007) and assesses the current perspectives of the future needs of mobile broadband to be supported by the IMT for the next decade (2012-2022). Based on the study of global mobile broadband deployments and forecasts for IMT, this Report clearly indicates that the ITU-R should consider this increasing mobile broadband traffic demand. The following 6 Annexes are attached to this document:
Abbreviations
Annex 1 List of related ITU-R Recommendations and ITU-R Reports
Draft new Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT.RSPEC]: Detailed specifications of the terrestrial radio interfaces of International Mobile Telecommunications – Advanced (IMT Advanced). [Editor’s note: This Recommendation is still under the approval process]. Report ITU-R M.2040: Adaptive antennas concepts and key technical aspects Report ITU-R M.2072: World mobile telecommunication market forecast Report ITU-R M.2074: Radio aspects for the terrestrial component of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 Report ITU-R M.2078: Estimated spectrum bandwidth requirements for the future development of IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced Report ITU-R M.2079: Technical and operational information for identifying Spectrum for the terrestrial component of future development of IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced Report ITU-R M.2109: Sharing studies between IMT-Advanced systems and geostationary satellite networks in the fixed-satellite service in the 3 400-4 200 and 4 500-4 800 MHz frequency bands Report ITU-R M.2110: Sharing studies between radiocommunication services and IMT systems operating in the 450-470 MHz band Report ITU-R M.2111: Sharing studies between IMT-Advanced and the radiolocation service in the 3 400-3 700 MHz bands Report ITU-R M.2112: Compatibility/sharing of airport surveillance radars and meteorological radar with IMT systems within the 2 700 2 900 MHz band Report ITU-R M.2113: Sharing studies in the 2 500-2 690 MHz band between IMT 2000 and fixed broadband wireless access systems including nomadic applications in the same geographical area Report ITU-R M.2116: Characteristics of broadband wireless access systems operating in the land mobile service for use in sharing studies Annex 2 Detailed information of existing mobile broadband implementation
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