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China Threat RealA laundry list of empirics prove that China is internally unstable and risks aggression Kusumi, 05 John Kusumi is founder / Director emeritus of the China Support Network, a U.S. based organization that supports the Chinese democracy cause in response to the Tiananmen Square massacre. 3/17/05 “Why We Can't Dismiss the China Threat” http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-3-17/27119.html Accessed 7/16/12 BJM On March 1, I emceed a press conference that featured several groups of the China pro-democracy movement. Notably, D.J. McGuire, the author of Dragon In The Dark , warned at the conference that the ruling regime, China's Communist Party, has "anti-American objectives and plans." He warned that China has overseas expansion plans "to avoid disturbing questions," domestically. It is a classic maneuver of tyrants to stir up foreign trouble when they need more allegiance or patriotism at home, or to distract from domestic troubles. (China indeed has domestic turmoil, including a new trend in which 300,000 people have quit the Communist Party. An entire separate discussion could be made about the troubled state of the Chinese regime.) McGuire warned that China wants three things: to conquer Taiwan; to become Asia's leading power; and then, world domination. And, what stands in the way is the United States. Perhaps McGuire should not be singled out as the source- his is only the most articulate rendition, among many, that basically say the same thing. On March 6, the foreign minister of China responded by trying to say that the "China threat theory" is hogwash. Some people take it that the foreign minister referred to our event in Washington, but my information says only that a People's Daily reporter asked about "the new wave in Washington, 'the Chinese threat theory'." The lack of specifics makes me unable to say whether my group is in a shouting match with Beijing's foreign ministry- however, we have confronted Beijing in another sense, by taking the side of Tiananmen Square dissidents for 15 years. One can say that my group was born into a collision with Beijing. (CSN's founding was roughly at the same time as one man stopped a line of tanks, in that famous, classic image from June 5, 1989.) At any rate, Beijing would like to debunk the China threat "theory." I decided to write this article under my own byline, because the China Support Network has already said that China poses a threat. Under my own byline, I can represent Practical Idealism, a brand of politics that began under my byline, prior to the Tiananmen Square uprising of 1989. It is a brand that has America's best interests at heart, as well as believing that people are important- the clarion theme of a 1984 political campaign that introduced Practical Idealism. This is a different angle, but I still would not trust Beijing as far as I can throw it. I can only affirm that by looking into this angle, that concerns about "China-as-dangerous" are reinforced. I've noted elsewhere that business interests are always going to want to cool down, minimize, and deny political tensions. They are motivated to do so- they want the trade with this nation of (potentially) 1.3 billion customers. That leads to wishful and rose colored assessments, and even discussions of geopolitical military strategy may be driven by the wishful line, "China? They're not expansionist." Where do the wishers get this idea? Ask any Tibetan. How do they feel? Colonized! Ask anyone in East Turkestan. How do they feel? Colonized! Ask anyone in Taiwan. How do they feel?- In the case of Taiwan, they are staring down the barrel of a gun, but they are more fortunate than the Tibetans and East Turkestanis, in that the gun has not fired yet. The key word is "yet." China has been very explicit- loud and clear- in naming Taiwan as an objective. This point is not even a stretch of debate. The statements about Taiwan issue regularly from China's foreign ministry, and they are as explicit as they are chilling. The only way that business interests, or poor strategists, can arrive at their wishful, rose colored assessments is by averting their eyes, shrugging off Tibet, Taiwan, East Turkestan, and even prior occasions like the Korean War, where Americans faced Chinese troops. In relation to Taiwan, China is not just making statements-it's moving hardware. Over 700 ballistic missiles have now been arrayed against Taiwan. In addition to its new manned space program (also cloned from Russia), and nuclear weapons (with nuclear secrets stolen from America under Bill Clinton), China has a new long-range air force. China has a new deep-water navy. Even nuclear submarines, to have a "second strike capability" against America in a nuclear war. (One might ask, where did this nuclear-armed communist superpower get its wherewithal?- And the answer is that they are enriched by America trade, by the exact amount of the U.S. trade deficit with China. If someone gave you $160 billion a year, you too could have your own army, navy, air force, and space program!) Another counterargument is in the nature of the Chinese Communist Party itself. How did it start?- It started as a branch of the Soviet Communist Party. The Soviet system was taken as a model, and the CCP is born of the same paradigm, as a clone or a carbon copy. In this way, we can also note that the CCP is a "foreign influence," not indigenously Chinese. Any sane person who remembers the Soviet Union as a threat will already see a "China threat" in the preceding part of this article. But, there is more, and I have reasons why even Li Zhaoxing (the Chinese foreign minister) cannot definitively offer us assurance of a "peaceful rise" on the part of China, even if he means what he is saying. My argument here is also why China has instability, even when it claims to have, or to value, stability. They key word is "claims." Claims from the Chinese government are chiefly excuses to stay in power for one more day, and for that government, lying is a way of life. However, I promise that the following argument can hold true even if Li Zhaoxing is sincere. Even when Chinese leaders have a rare day of sincerity (if ever they do), they are within "the CCP system." The CCP system includes diabolical treatment of people, double standards galore, profound corruption, trickery, treachery, and no respect for China's own constitution. On any given day, the Chinese are already in violation of prior international agreements and their own constitution (which, oddly, says freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and the right to criticize the government exist). (This raises the question, "Who, in their right mind, would sign a contract with an opposite party of that little reliability?" An entire separate discussion could be made about China's business practices, which have actually come to turn off some foreign investors.) China's is a system that is not systematic, and while it's reputed to be a dictatorship, even the dictator can be rudely surprised by matters blowing up in his face. It might be fair to say that no one man is truly in charge of China. (China contains many fiefdoms, reporting cooked statistics to the other fiefdoms. For more reliable statistics, Chinese turn to the CIA's web site, just to figure out what's the case in China.) In other words, China is an interplay of forces, and due to inevitable frictions as forces collide, China is unpredictable, perhaps deadly so. For those in Tibet, in East Turkestan, and for all domestic dissenters, China is already deadly. Now, it is threatening to become deadly in a military sense, especially where the United States has a role to defend Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act. Let me note, for anyone who thinks that China is "gradually building up" to "someday" be a military challenger, that a current of opinion says that they should conquer Taiwan before the 2008 Olympics. If those become intentions that are followed through, then the war would begin by the end of 2006. Also, if anyone thinks that it would be a regional, limited war, a related current of opinion says that they must flatten the U.S., because that is what stands in the way. A war over Taiwan could find China to be striking hard at the American homeland. But, let's return to my argument, where I am applying systemic issues to show that no one man, nor even the CCP, can make assurances for China. What is the CCP, and what is its history? Remember that their system is officially atheist, and requires unswerving loyalty and adherence to the CCP, which in their system is placed above all else- the state, the military, and the constitution are all malleable toys which bend to the will of the CCP. Above all, "the party" answers to no one, and to no international conventions- not even to standards of civilization within China's borders. The party takes itself to be god, not constrained by any law of anybody- not of man, not of heaven. This system effectively installs the CCP as a deity. But, look at its history- how does this deity behave? Nothing is predictable or orderly about China's history under the CCP. In fact, this has been the deadliest episode in Chinese history, with twists and turns that no one could predict. Setbacks? Reversals? Contradictions? Retractions? Corrections? Doubling back? Inconsistencies? Or, as a lawyer might say, violations of estoppel?- These are prominent in CCP history. Even if a gullible person starts by thinking, "the party is always right," and tries to comprehend the official line, that person would be rudely surprised, and could not read very far through CCP history before asking the question, "How can this be right?" As a deity, the CCP has been capricious and whimsical. The word of the party (even if we suppose it to be infallible) has changed dramatically, simply based on who wins the power struggle in the periodic shifts of Chinese politics. It has changed so dramatically as to make a mockery of any pretensions to intellectual consistency, credibility, or an upright, mature nature. Thinking people simply can't believe in the CCP any more, and that may be why there is a growing wave of resignations from the Chinese Communist Party. If this were a deity, we would have to describe it as a criminally insane deity, or perhaps with words such as adolescent, anti-social, and deranged. This amounts to another reason why China should be considered dangerous, no matter what is said by current President Hu Jintao or Li Zhaoxing. Their job is chiefly to keep face, in the midst of the train wreck of Chinese government. They can speak of a "peaceful rise" for China, and they can cross their fingers and hope for the best, but what is over their shoulders? Over their shoulders are two different forces: Jiang Zemin, and the Chinese democracy movement. These may also be known as the "leftist" and "rightist" forces in Chinese politics. The rightists are down, but not out- upon his recent death, it was learned that Zhao Ziyang (the reform minded former party leader) still has many friends, even deep inside the CCP itself. The rightist element exists, and may yet find its champion for leadership. Surely, it has leaders in exile, with names like Wei Jingsheng, Xu Wenli, Yan Jiaqi, Fang Lizhi and Fang Jue. The rightist element also has Wang Bingzhang as the most prominent dissident who is now rotting in a Chinese jail cell, much like Nelson Mandela. Good leaders inside China include Jiang Yanyong, Ding Zilin, and He Depu, all of whom have been roughed up periodically by goons of the regime. For potential opposition, the Chinese regime also has Li Hongzhi, perched atop the Falun Gong movement, and Zhang Hongbao, perched atop the Zhong Gong movement, not to mention the Tiananmen movement, which would be more powerful if it were not hobbled by disunity. (There, headlines are stolen on alternate days by Wang Dan, Lian Shengde, and Zhou Yongjun.) The bigger problem is over the left shoulder of Hu Jintao, because former President Jiang Zemin could provoke or start a war, while the rightists are a peaceful, unarmed movement. We do not know that Hu Jintao is a leader committed to peace. We know that in late 2004, Hu approved a massacre of villagers in Hanyuan County, and by some reports, more people were killed than in the Tiananmen massacre. But suppose, for the sake of argument, that Hu wants peace, and Jiang wants war. My press conference statement said, "We have concern about the military ambitions of Jiang Zemin, whom we believe can still provoke a war, even from retirement. We may learn today that he's really not retired, remaining active while he is titularly out of power for public relations purposes. Many, many things can happen without full play in the press." On March 1, Zhou Yongjun relayed word that "before Jiang Zemin retired, he had quietly changed the Party-Administration-Military power structure of China into a new structure of 5 'leaders groups,' with himself as the heads of them all. They are: the central policy group; central diplomacy group; national war preparation group; anti-Taiwan-independence and anti-foreign military interference headquarters; and, the first political commissar of Zhongnanhai guarding troop." That last group is akin to the Secret Service in the USA, meaning that they have guns trained on the national leaders and their families. The dissidents were warning us that Jiang Zemin has undertaken maneuvers behind the scenes to quietly consolidate power. If true, then Jiang Zemin becomes an invisible hand behind the throne of the puppet emperor. Observers of China will remember that in a recent transition, Jiang Zemin "packed" the Politburo Standing Committee with cronies from his "Shanghai faction," so that Jiang's men surround Hu Jintao in any case. Is Hu Jintao really at leave to govern? Dissidents assert that the presence of Jiang Zemin on the scene increases the mortal danger to Taiwan (and, by extension, the United States). According to Chinese dissidents, "Jiang asked all provinces/municipalities/counties to set up 'Wartime leaders groups' before 2005. These groups, which are at the core of all levels of power, are under direct control of Jiang Zemin. This way, there formed another set of power systems from the local governments to the central government. And at the top of this pyramid is Jiang Zemin." Dissidents also note that Jiang wants to change China to embrace a hereditary system of national leadership, so that his son can succeed him. If Jiang's family were to lose "head of state" status, then there would be no more immunity for the crimes, of which Jiang stands accused (genocide, crimes against humanity, etc.) Danger of war is also seen in three aspects. One, China won't renounce the use of force with Taiwan. Two, China won't curb or reverse its deployment of missiles opposite Taiwan. And three, its National People's Congress is expected to pass a new "anti-secession" law this month, to provide the legal pretext or cover as enabling legislation for a Taiwan war. The law being passed is, itself, dangerously close to a declaration of war. In the light of this, only the most gullible child would believe Li Zhaoxing's assurances of "no China threat." I can simply ask my readers, from this one paragraph alone, are matters moving in a more peaceful direction? Or, are matters moving in a direction to be more on a war time footing? That there is a "China threat" was never more timely advice. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. 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