Research in contemporary social movements: a case study of Guatemala 2015

4.1.2 Political alliances and movement constituency

One aspect that seems imperative in relation to structural conduciveness is that the consolidation between various societal groups also called for peaceful means of protesting. Neither side could afford losing the fragile alliance^{50 51} between societal groups that, historically, have been sharply divided, if the ultimate goal was to be accomplished (see illustration of divisions below). Neither did either party want to succumb to internal conflicts, which could easily erect from indiscriminate use of disruptive tactics, when both sides were, in this case, struggling to meet the same end. Failure to observe this mutual but tacit understanding could have disastrous consequences and might ultimately lead to the victory of the same forces that the public sphere was fighting against. Tellingly, political entities did not fail to try and exploit this vital, but fragile, alliance, by attempting to incite discord between the vested groups. Some reports of violent or disruptive clashes emerged during the conflicts, but these were generally attributed to corrupt obscure powers paying off poor peasants or unemployed to do illegal road blockades. The most important occasion happened on September 1^st when the CC was voting on the revoking the immunity of President Molina⁵², when a gathering of ‘pro-government protestors’ tried to block the entrance of the deputies to congress, to prevent them from voting. Another example is illustrated in attempts to ‘defame’ protestors⁵³ in various ways. In political discourse, the principle of divide and conquer’ has also been a long-standing tactic to keep the public from uniting against the political and elite classes. Otto Pérez Molina exemplified this in a speech shortly before his renunciation on August 23^{54 55 56} where he called on ‘the ‘deep’ Guatemala’ to support him against the insurgents in the capitol (addressing the rural population for their support). In this case, however, the strategy did not help Molina who was readily recognized by the rural populations as the miscreant, and he failed to incite enmity between the rural and urban populations. In other speeches, he has called the rural and indigenous activists and leaders ‘terrorists’⁵⁷ (likewise has other extreme right-wing groups⁵⁸, intent on criminalizing HR advocates and indigenous groups) – a traditional rhetoric in GT right-wing discourse aimed at the same ultimate ends. A last recurrent example is the accusations against the CICIG as an international conspiracy against the Guatemalan state which Molina⁵⁹, and lately Baldetti⁶⁰, has sought to utilize to spur doubt about both the MP and the international commission.

In spite of the attempts to incite enmity, the protesting groups remained consolidated in the call for the renunciations of Molina and Baldetti, and remained in solidarity, not attributing callous ridicule or assigning blame to one another. However, for us the importance remains with the structural conduciveness to foster peaceful demonstrations and means. The unification across various social strata called on both sides not to violate this implicit code of conduct where violence and disruption would risk more than it could possibly gain. Theoretically, SMO literature has debated whether disruptive measures are a viable strategy for social movements to reach asserted goals with both support and opposition to the hypothesis (Morris & Herring 1984). In this case, we may say with considerable confidence that peacefulness have been a cornerstone in concerting the demonstrations.

Lastly, the unification of forces across various societal groupings also concerns another important aspect. The middle- and upper middle class had rarely been involved in social mobilizations prior to 2015, and even less alongside members of the rural, indigenous, and poor populations (this may be a first). The implication here being, that if we are to conceptualize a political opportunity, the unification of social groupings, across the dividing axes of a country, whether those dividing axes may be, appears as a strong indicator of a political opportunity for success. This observation supports the general agreement in PPT theory, that the stability and extent of political alliances are important indicators for success. The success of GT’s movement hinges strongly on this vital factor of unification across traditional dividing lines. In our case, the divisions between rich/poor, rural/urban, and ‘capitalist’ / ‘communist’, have formed the axes of separation, though in other cases (i.e. other countries or places in time) separations may be formed based on other axes.