Forecasting the manufacturing sector is a difficult exercise, given the dependence of such a forecast on both the uncertainties of the international environment, as well as the domestic growth and government policy environment. Internationally, the European Union seems as if it will go into another short recession given the economic problems in Greece (as well as Spain and Portugal). The EU is the largest manufacturing goods trading partner of SA and economic growth in this region will impact the SA manufacturing environment.
Other variables that will impact the growth in the manufacturing sector will be the exchange rate changes (not only the rand dollar but also the dollar euro), interest rates (that is expected to remain lower for longer; potentially for the remainder of 2012) and the impact of the private sector (and their risk appetite) and government investment (including the 17 strategic infrastructure projects that government has identified).
A forecast, based on a current GDP forecasts for SA and an autoregressive model of the manufacturing sub-sectors, provide a manufacturing forecast of 2.4% for 2011, 2.8% for 2012, 3.2% in 2013 and 3.8% in 2014. The textiles, clothing and leather industry is expected to slightly outpace the growth in the rest of the sectors, given the very low base and the potential impact of lower wages of new employees in this sectors that will impact on the profitability in the sector. Growth in the non-metal mineral products is expected to remain slow given the dependence on the building and construction activity. The detailed forecast per manufacturing sub-sector is shown in Figure 13 and Table 8.
Figure 13: A forecast of the manufacturing activity (2011 to 2014 are forecasted values)
Source: StatsSA and own forecast
Table 8: Year-on-year percentage change in manufacturing industries and forecasted percentages for 2011 to 2014
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011*
|
2012*
|
2013*
|
2014*
|
Manufacturing
|
-10.1%
|
5.4%
|
2.4%
|
2.8%
|
3.2%
|
3.8%
|
Food, beverages and tobacco
|
-4.9%
|
7.8%
|
1.3%
|
3.8%
|
4.2%
|
4.7%
|
Textiles, clothing and leather goods
|
1.1%
|
7.8%
|
3.6%
|
6.1%
|
6.4%
|
6.8%
|
Wood and paper; publishing and printing
|
-11.4%
|
10.3%
|
-1.2%
|
2.1%
|
2.6%
|
3.2%
|
Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic
|
-5.1%
|
4.0%
|
1.6%
|
2.6%
|
3.1%
|
3.7%
|
Other non-metal mineral products
|
-23.6%
|
13.1%
|
-2.3%
|
-0.4%
|
0.0%
|
0.5%
|
Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment
|
-20.1%
|
6.1%
|
3.9%
|
1.9%
|
2.3%
|
2.9%
|
Electrical machinery and apparatus
|
-4.2%
|
3.4%
|
5.8%
|
4.9%
|
5.3%
|
5.8%
|
Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks
|
-4.8%
|
3.7%
|
5.0%
|
4.5%
|
4.9%
|
5.4%
|
Transport equipment
|
-10.4%
|
0.5%
|
4.9%
|
2.3%
|
2.7%
|
3.3%
|
Furniture; other manufacturing 1/
|
-9.5%
|
0.3%
|
4.5%
|
2.6%
|
3.1%
|
3.6%
|
Directory: Publications -> PublicationsPublications -> Preparation of Papers for ieee transactions on medical imagingPublications -> Adjih, C., Georgiadis, L., Jacquet, P., & Szpankowski, W. (2006). Multicast tree structure and the power lawPublications -> Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (eth) Zurich Computer Engineering and Networks LaboratoryPublications -> Quantitative skillsPublications -> Multi-core cpu and gpu implementation of Discrete Periodic Radon Transform and Its InversePublications -> List of Publications Department of Mechanical Engineering ucek, jntu kakinadaPublications -> 1. 2 Authority 1 3 Planning Area 1Publications -> Sa michelson, 2011: Impact of Sea-Spray on the Atmospheric Surface Layer. Bound. Layer Meteor., 140 ( 3 ), 361-381, doi: 10. 1007/s10546-011-9617-1, issn: Jun-14, ids: 807TW, sep 2011 Bao, jw, cw fairall, sa michelsonPublications -> Rare detections of North Pacific right whales in the Gulf of Alaska, with observations of their potential prey
Share with your friends: |
