Risk, Uncertainty and Investment Decision-Making in the Upstream Oil and Gas Industry Fiona Macmillan ma hons (University of Aberdeen) October 2000 a thesis presented for the degree of Ph. D. at the University of Aberdeen declaration

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GRV

0.2	Normal	Normal	Normal	Normal	Normal	Normal
N/G	0.8	Triangular	Triangular	Triangular	Uniform	Lognormal	Lognormal
Porosity	0.32	Triangular	Lognormal	Triangular	Uniform	Lognormal	Lognormal
Shc	0.8	Triangular	Triangular	Triangular	Triangular	Lognormal	Lognormal
Re	0.45	Triangular	Triangular	Lognormal	Triangular	Lognormal	Lognormal
		Rec Res 7	Rec Res 8	Rec Res 9	Rec Res 10	Rec Res 11	Rec Res 12
GRV	0.2	Normal	Lognormal	Lognormal	Weibull	Normal	Beta
N/G	0.8	Triangular	Weibull	Uniform	Weibull	Beta	Weibull
Porosity	0.32	Weibull	Beta	Uniform	Weibull	Pareto	Triangular
Shc	0.8	Triangular	Uniform	Uniform	Weibull	Uniform	Lognormal
Re	0.45	Triangular	Triangular	Uniform	Weibull	Weibull	Weibull

Table 5.5: Base value data and probability distributions assigned to each of the reservoir parameters (GRV=gross rock volume, N/G=net to gross, Shc=hydrocarbon saturation, Re=recovery efficiency, Rec Res=recoverable reserves)

Percentile__Rec_Reserves__1__Rec_Reserves'>Percentile	Rec Reserves 1	Rec Reserves 2	Rec Reserves 3	Rec Reserves 4	Rec Reserves 5	Rec Reserves 6
0%	107	93	97	95	94	79
10%	138	132	132	132	137	120
20%	146	143	142	142	145	133
30%	152	150	150	151	153	141
40%	157	157	156	158	158	150
50%	163	162	163	164	164	160
60%	167	169	169	172	170	170
70%	173	176	177	180	176	181
80%	180	185	188	188	184	196
90%	189	198	203	203	196	217
100%	228	255	263	281	260	339
Percentile	Rec Reserves 7	Rec Reserves 8	Rec Reserves 9	Rec Reserves 10	Rec Reserves 11	Rec Reserves 12
0%	150	5	105	2359	17	9
10%	314	44	132	11599	246	113
20%	399	66	141	16651	382	175
30%	467	84	149	21955	527	225
40%	523	103	157	27209	675	280
50%	598	125	163	32842	817	337
60%	657	148	170	40866	984	404
70%	726	176	178	48650	1206	498
80%	817	205	187	62966	1544	626
90%	971	250	201	88855	2273	819
100%	1938	546	287	237909	17143	2903

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