Risk, Uncertainty and Investment Decision-Making in the Upstream Oil and Gas Industry Fiona Macmillan ma hons (University of Aberdeen) October 2000 a thesis presented for the degree of Ph. D. at the University of Aberdeen declaration



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GRV


0.2

Normal

Normal

Normal

Normal

Normal

Normal

N/G

0.8

Triangular

Triangular

Triangular

Uniform

Lognormal

Lognormal

Porosity

0.32

Triangular

Lognormal

Triangular

Uniform

Lognormal

Lognormal

Shc

0.8

Triangular

Triangular

Triangular

Triangular

Lognormal

Lognormal

Re

0.45

Triangular

Triangular

Lognormal

Triangular

Lognormal

Lognormal







Rec Res 7

Rec Res 8

Rec Res 9

Rec Res 10

Rec Res 11

Rec Res 12

GRV

0.2

Normal

Lognormal

Lognormal

Weibull

Normal

Beta

N/G

0.8

Triangular

Weibull

Uniform

Weibull

Beta

Weibull

Porosity

0.32

Weibull

Beta

Uniform

Weibull

Pareto

Triangular

Shc

0.8

Triangular

Uniform

Uniform

Weibull

Uniform

Lognormal

Re

0.45

Triangular

Triangular

Uniform

Weibull

Weibull

Weibull

Table 5.5: Base value data and probability distributions assigned to each of the reservoir parameters (GRV=gross rock volume, N/G=net to gross, Shc=hydrocarbon saturation, Re=recovery efficiency, Rec Res=recoverable reserves)


Percentile__Rec_Reserves__1__Rec_Reserves'>Percentile

Rec Reserves

1

Rec Reserves

2

Rec Reserves

3

Rec Reserves

4

Rec Reserves

5

Rec Reserves

6

0%

107

93

97

95

94

79

10%

138

132

132

132

137

120

20%

146

143

142

142

145

133

30%

152

150

150

151

153

141

40%

157

157

156

158

158

150

50%

163

162

163

164

164

160

60%

167

169

169

172

170

170

70%

173

176

177

180

176

181

80%

180

185

188

188

184

196

90%

189

198

203

203

196

217

100%

228

255

263

281

260

339

Percentile

Rec Reserves

7

Rec Reserves

8

Rec Reserves

9

Rec Reserves 10

Rec Reserves

11

Rec Reserves

12

0%

150

5

105

2359

17

9

10%

314

44

132

11599

246

113

20%

399

66

141

16651

382

175

30%

467

84

149

21955

527

225

40%

523

103

157

27209

675

280

50%

598

125

163

32842

817

337

60%

657

148

170

40866

984

404

70%

726

176

178

48650

1206

498

80%

817

205

187

62966

1544

626

90%

971

250

201

88855

2273

819

100%

1938

546

287

237909

17143

2903

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