A Robot May Be Training to Do Your Job. Don’t Panic

A Robot May Be Training to Do Your Job. Don’t Panic.

By ALEXANDRA LEVIT SEPT. 10, 2016

In my speaking engagements, when I mention the terms “the future of work” and “automation” in the same sentence, I often see the audience squirm. People’s worst fear is that their job will soon be taken over by the equivalent of Rosie the Robot from “The Jetsons.” But even though we’re only in the beginning stages of work force automation, I’m optimistic about the effect it will have on human workers.

Over the last two decades, machines have indeed usurped many human jobs in industries like manufacturing, hospitality, transportation and customer service. But here’s what I find interesting: We hang our hats on the idea that there are certain professions, such as teaching and caregiving, in which humans could never be replaced by robots because of the level of personal interaction required.

But according to Richard Yonck, executive director and analyst for Intelligent Future Consulting and author of the forthcoming book “Heart of the Machine: Our Future in a World of Artificial Emotional Intelligence,” we should never say never.

“Starting in the mid-’00s, due to better computer hardware and algorithms, we made some major leaps forward in deep learning,” he said in an interview. “As a result, we’re now developing emotional computing and software programs that are aware of our moods and intentions and are able to respond accordingly.”

For example, I might be fuming at my desk, punching out an irate email to an inconsiderate client. Through text analysis or facial expression recognition, a program on my laptop could identify the high level of emotion, understand what’s about to happen, and warn me to take a breather before I send something I’ll regret.

Emotion recognition software is making waves in education, too. Researchers from North Carolina State University showed that software that tracks facial expressions can accurately assess the emotions of students engaged in interactive online learning, then predict the effectiveness of online tutoring sessions. The researchers’ program, JavaTutor, responds not only to what a student knows, but to each student’s feelings of frustration or engagement, just as a human teacher would.

Affective computing and emotional awareness in software are likely to come into common use sooner than in robotics. So can we stop worrying that humanoid robots will take our jobs as, let’s say, health workers?

Not necessarily. In Japan, the rapidly aging population and shrinking work force have led to significant advances in social robotics. Riken and Sumitomo Riko Company have released Robear, a nursing robot that looks like a tall, white bear and can lift patients out of bed and help them move. Strong, gentle and nonthreatening, Robear can converse and interact with patients on a rudimentary level.

Then, there’s Jibo, which, at 11 inches tall, is used mostly in the home — for now. Jibo, designed at M.I.T., uses speech and facial recognition, and natural language processing, to learn from its interactions with people. This little guy is on my wish list. I can’t wait for it to suggest what I should have for dinner and take video of my child’s birthday party without being prompted. I’m sure I’ll get mad at it sometimes, but we’ll make up as soon as I see its movements mimicking human sadness. Maybe I’ll be the first person to hire Jibo as a garden-variety junior staff member.

Realistically, these technologies have far to go. For an idea of how long it might be before social robots can do your job, look at Microsoft Windows’ personal assistant Clippy. It took 25 years for that irritating paper clip to evolve to the current Cortana, a more intelligent personal assistant that helps you find things on your machine, manages your schedule and tells jokes that it knows you’ll find funny.

The widespread adoption of social robotics in the workplace faces a host of potential problems, including a lack of infrastructure and power requirements, deficient awareness of surroundings, and public resistance. Eventually, though, the moment will come when machines possess empathy, the ability to innovate and other traits we perceive as uniquely human. What then? How will we sustain our own career relevance?

I think the only way forward is to look at artificial intelligence developments as an opportunity rather than a threat. We need the mind-set that success is no longer about our level of knowledge but about our level of creative intelligence. If we accept the process of lifelong learning, in which we adapt to new ways of working as technology improves, we’ll always find roles that take advantage of our best qualities.

Maybe I’m overly optimistic, but I also believe that behind every highly intelligent machine will be humans who help build it, train it, distribute it, advise it and repair it when things go wrong. And until (unless?) machines acquire consciousness, they’ll have trouble mastering the most complex aspects of human behavior — many of which we still don’t understand. I can’t, for example, imagine a machine that, without human guidance or input, knows the perfect way to motivate a team of disparate human personalities that has just received bad news.

Mr. Yonck agrees. “Social robots will interact with people, not just replace them,” he said. “Human and machine will partner to provide products and services in ways we haven’t before — each providing its own strengths.”

Personally, I look forward to the day when my work-from-home job isn’t quite so lonely because Jibo is keeping me company.

ALEXANDRA LEVIT is a workplace consultant and the author of “Blind Spots: The 10 Business Myths You Can’t Afford to Believe on Your New Path to Success.”

A.I. and robotics could replace 6% of U.S. jobs by 2021

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Computerworld | Sep 14, 2016 1:04 PM PT

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In just five years, intelligent systems and robots may have taken up to 6% of U.S. jobs, according to Forrester Research in a report released this week.

As artificial intelligence (A.I.) advances to better understand human behavior and make decisions on its own in complicated situations, it will enable smart software and robots to take on increasingly challenging jobs.

That means robotics should be able to take over some jobs traditionally held by humans by 2021.

For instance, Forrester predicts that smart systems like autonomous robots, digital assistants, A.I. software and chatbots will take over customer service rep jobs and eventually even serve as truck and taxi drivers.

"Intelligent agents have emerged, but wide adoption is not yet mainstream," Forrester analysts wrote in their report. "As cognitive elements are added, capabilities will expand and target more use cases."

Forrester also noted that by 2021, A.I. is expected to evolve significantly beyond today's relatively simple machine learning and natural language processing capabilities. Advanced applications will focus more on self-learning and more complex scenarios.

This isn't a new scenario for the American workforce -- and it's also not as bad as it sounds.

In January, the Geneva-based World Economic Forum reported that technologies like A.I. and machine learning could mean the loss of more than 7 million jobs over the next several years.

However, the Forum also reported that these same technologies could lead to the gain of 2 million jobs in fields related to computer science, engineering and mathematics.

Tom Davenport, co-author of Only Humans Need Apply: Winners and Losers in the Age of Smart Machines, echoed that idea According to Davenport, artificial intelligent systems and robotics will become our assistants and co-workers, helping many people do their jobs better.

"We have a new generation of technologies and we need to work with them if we're going to be productive and effective," Davenport told Computerworld in April. "I think that in many cases, we'll be working with these machines as colleagues.... I think the people who prosper will be the ones who like working with machines."

Patrick Moorhead, an analyst with Moor Insights & Strategy, said Forrester's estimate seems a bit high. He expects the number to be closer to 3% or 4%.

"I don't necessarily buy into customer service jobs being replaced very quickly," he added. "Most of the jobs impacted would be in transportation, like cabbies, limo drivers, large highway truck and small truck city drivers [whose jobs are] hit by autonomous vehicles. And jobs where people are checking on things, like oil pipeline inspectors, will be impacted."

Moorhead noted that if many of these smart systems and devices are made here in the United States, there may not be much of a net job loss.

WP

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