Russia 110705 Basic Political Developments



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Inflation Concerns


Even so, slowing growth of retail bank deposits signals a drop in the saving rate, which may stoke inflation risks as domestic demand grows, Bank Rossii said last week.

Consumer lending expanded 3.1 percent in May, while bank deposits grew 0.5 percent, the slowest in four months, Bank Rossii said June 27.

The unemployment rate plunged in May to the lowest level since September 2008 and retail sales grew 5.5 percent from a year earlier. Real wages gained 2.6 percent from a year earlier even as real disposable incomes shrank 7 percent.

The central bank may still raise interest rates to limit risks stemming from a decline in savings and accelerating credit growth as consumer demand recovers, said Barbara Nestor, a London-based economist at Commerzbank AG.

“If this scenario materialized, the current level of real interest rates would still be little or no incentive for domestic savings,” Nestor said by e-mail. “Some of the underlying trends suggest that monetary tightening is likely to continue.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Agnes Lovasz in London at alovasz@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net

Russia may raise nearly $1 bln from sale of quarter of Sovcomflot - source

http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text16081


RIA Novosti


July 4, 2011

The Russian government may raise some $1 billion from the sale of 25 percent minus one share of the country's largest shipping company Sovcomflot, a source familiar with privatization preparations told RIA Novosti late on Sunday.

"(The stake) is valued at nearly $1 billion," the source said.

Last week the government appointed Morgan Stanley as a lead manager of the deal.

The government has approved a $33-billion privatization plan for 2011-2013, which includes the sale of shares in the country's top 10 companies, although there are no firm dates for sales and sizes of stakes are often unclear.

The government has said it wanted to privatize another 25 percent of Sovcomflot in 2012-2013 and decrease its stake below control in 2014-2015.

Although the government has planned to sell the first 25 percent of the company this year, privatization of the stake is likely to occur in 2012. Deputy Transport Minister Viktor Olersky said that the government has practically approved the postponement until next year.

The government has launched privatization earlier this year with the sale of a 10 percent stake in the country's second largest bank VTB, for about 96 billion rubles ($3.3 billion).



Russian transport minister proposes privatization of Anapa airport and Novorossiysk port


http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/economy/15502.html

The Russian Transport Minister, Igor Levitin, has proposed an extended


privatization plan for all transport companies with state shares
involved, RBC reports.

The plan includes privatization of 20% of Novorossiysk Port and 25.5%


of the shares of Anapa Airport. Levitin believes that each case should
have independent terms and shares privatized. The process is expected
to take 2 years.

Levitin added that Novorossiysk Port is a strategic facility.



Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions




Russia’s RTS Stock-Index Futures Gain as Oil at Two-Week High


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-04/russia-s-rts-stock-index-futures-gain-as-oil-at-two-week-high.html
By Halia Pavliva - Jul 4, 2011 11:15 PM GMT+0200

Russia’s RTS stock-index futures gained, suggesting shares may rise further, as oil in New York traded near a two-week high after the European Union authorized a loan payout for Greece, helping investors’ optimism on a global economic recovery.

Futures on the dollar-denominated index expiring in September gained 0.2 percent on July 4. Contracts on OAO Rosneft, the country’s biggest oil producer, rose 0.1 percent, while agreements on OAO Lukoil, the second largest, and OAO Gazprom, the world’s largest gas producer, were little changed. U.S. markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday yesterday.

“Risk aversion has fallen sharply with the Greek vote and the better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing number,” Chris Weafer, chief strategist at ING Groep NV in Moscow, said in an e-mailed report. “Events later in the week will serve to determine whether the current mood of optimism is justified or misplaced.”

Russia is the world’s largest energy exporter. Oil and natural gas make up a quarter of its economic output.

Oil climbed as much as 0.6 percent after European finance ministers approved an 8.7 billion-euro ($12.6 billion) aid payment to Greece on July 2. U.S. manufacturing accelerated in June, supporting the Federal Reserve’s forecast that the economy will strengthen in the second half of 2011, a report showed last week.

Emerging-market stocks rose on July 4, driving the benchmark index to a two-month high, on speculation China will refrain from boosting interest rates.

‘Big Danger’


“The two big elephants in the room that affected investor sentiment through most of the second quarter” have been dealt with, Weafer said in the report. “The big danger for emerging market equities is that the U.S. economy starts to strengthen while China, and the other major developing economies that have been raising interest rates, weaken. In that case we could easily again see more investor money shifting from the emerging market asset class and back into U.S. equity funds.”

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 1.1 percent to 1,169.49 as of 4:45 p.m. New York time, the highest close since May 4.

Crude for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as much as 53 cents to $95.47 a barrel and was at $95 at the 1:15 p.m. New York time close of electronic trading on Globex. On June 30, the contract settled at $95.42, the highest level in more than two weeks. Nymex floor trading was closed yesterday.

Russia’s 30-stock, ruble-denominated Micex index (INDEXCF) rose 0.5 percent to 1,706.12 in Moscow on July 4, extending its advances for the longest winning streak since January. The dollar- denominated RTS Index added 0.6 percent to 1,948.48.

To contact the reporter on this story: Halia Pavliva in New York at hpavliva@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net; David Papadopoulos at papadopoulos@bloomberg.net




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