Russia 111216 Basic Political Developments
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- Standard Poors applies its revised criteria to 14 Russian banks and one core subsidiary
- Russian Industrial Output Rises 3.9%, Faster Than Forecast
- 12/15/2011 @ 1:48PM |105 views
National Economic TrendsGov't greenlights long-term innovative strategy http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20111216125730.shtml RBC, 16.12.2011, Moscow 12:57:30.The Russian government has approved an innovative development strategy until 2020, the government's press service reported. The implementation of the strategy aims to raise the share of Russian hi-tech exports to 2% of the global volume by 2020, up from 0.25% in 2008. The share of innovative products should increase to 25%-35% of the country's industrial output from 4.9% in 2010, and spending on R&D should rise to 2.5%-3% of GDP from 1.3% in 2010, with the private sector contributing half of the funds. December 16, 2011 12:49
The agency said in a statement: "We've listed the ratings and any changes that resulted from our new criteria in the ratings list below. "The ratings listed below are counterparty credit ratings unless otherwise stated. "Ratings Affirmed; Upgraded To From B/Stable/B B/Stable/B B/Stable/B B/Stable/B B-/Positive/C B-/Positive/C Russia National Scale Rating ruBBB+ ruBBB+ B/Stable/C B-/Stable/C Russia National Scale Rating ruA- ruBBB B-/Stable/C B-/Stable/C Russia National Scale rating ruBBB- ruBBB- B/Stable/C B/Stable/C Russia National Scale Rating ruBBB+ ruBBB+ B/Stable/C B/Stable/C Russia National Scale Rating ruA- ruA- B-/Negative/C B-/Negative/C Russia National Scale Rating ruBBB- ruBBB- B/Stable/C B/Stable/C Russia National Scale Rating ruA- ruA- B-/Positive/C B-/Positive/C Russia National Scale Rating ruBBB ruBBB B-/Negative/C B-/Negative/C Russia National Scale Rating ruBBB- ruBBB- B-/Positive/C B-/Positive/C Russia National Scale Rating ruBBB+ ruBBB+ B/Stable/C B-/Stable/C Russia National Scale Rating ruBBB+ ruBBB B/Stable/B B-/Positive/C Russia National Scale Rating ruA- ruBBB+ B+/Stable/B B/Stable/B Russia National Scale Rating ruA ruBBB+ "Standard & Poor's has used information from sources believed to be reliable based on standards established in our Credit Ratings Information and Data Policy, but does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information used." Ih (Our editorial staff can be reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru) Russian Industrial Output Rises 3.9%, Faster Than Forecasthttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-15/russian-industrial-production-rises-3-9-faster-than-forecast.html Q By Scott Rose - Dec 15, 2011 8:53 PM GMT+0400 Russian industrial-production growth accelerated last month, beating economist forecasts as electricity generation increased. Output rose 3.9 percent in November compared with a year earlier after a 3.6 percent increase a month ago, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 17 economists was for growth of 3.6 percent. The increase suggests Russia’s economy is accelerating even as Europe’s debt crisis and slower growth in China threaten to damp demand for the country’s exports. Growth may be as much as 4.5 percent this year, up from 4 percent last year, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said this week. The results show a “stabilization or slight moderation of output growth in Russian industry,” Alexander Morozov, chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States at HSBC Holdings Plc in Moscow, said in an e-mailed note. The Micex Index of 30 stocks rose 1.5 percent to 1,393.61. The ruble rose against the dollar for the first time in 11 days, strengthening to 31.79 at the close in Moscow. Manufacturing grew 4.9 percent in November from the same period last year, while utilities advanced 3.2 percent, the statistics service said. Output at mines rose 1.3 percent. “Russia’s economy is working at the limit of its production capacity,” Anna Bogdyukevich, an economist at OAO Gazprombank in Moscow, said by e-mail. “Given the low investment growth, which is restrained by uncertainty over future demand, growth rates for industrial output will slow in the coming months.” To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Rose in Moscow at rrose10@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net 12/15/2011 @ 1:48PM |105 viewsRussia's Govt Will Need To Take On More Debt In 2012http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/12/15/russia-govt-will-have-to-borrow-next-year/ The Russian government will have to tap credit markets next year as the country’s meager 2011 surplus turns into a deficit in 2012. Judging by the country’s relatively sound budget, it will unlikely have a hard time finding willing lenders. “The fiscal picture for Russia will change drastically starting in December. We expect the December deficit to be around 1 trillion roubles (about $332 million), giving boost to bank liquidity. This will likely reduce the annual surplus to around 400 billion roubles, or 0.6% of GDP,” said Vladimir Pantyushin, a senior analyst at Barclays Capital in Moscow. Pantyushin wrote in a note to clients this week that the investment bank expects Russian budget deficits to return in 2012, and forecast the full-year figure at 600 billion roubles or just 1.0% of GDP. The cash shortfall means Russia will have to turn to banks to lend them money in order to pay government obligations like salaries and benefits. Barclays said the deficit means Russia will be looking at around 980 billion roubles from the debt markets versus 730 billion roubles this year. Russia’s dwindling surplus is not a surprise to anyone. The economy is dependent on oil and gas revenues, but with its major trading partner — Europe — heading for a technical recession, oil and gas demand pressures will take a lot of cash out of Russia’s checking account. One positive is that oil prices have never really fallen significantly enough to be a cause for concern. Brent oil, which prices the crude coming out of the North Sea for the most part, is still over $90 a barrel. Economists were warning earlier this fall that oil prices for Brent could fall below $60 — a disaster for Russia. Alexey Ulyukaev, a monetary policy official at Russia’s Central Bank, said in October that Russia would end the year with “maybe a small fiscal surplus.” Ulyakaev said he expects the year to end with GDP growth of 4% in Russia, beating Brazil’s GDP growth of around 3.5%, and inflation at around 7.3% year over year. Russia also has around $516 billion in cash reserves, more than enough to cover principal and interest on any sovereign debt it will seek in 2012.
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