Seti aff •seti neg •Asteroids Aff
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1AC [2/7]Contention 2: Harms Earth has suffered over 100 major impacts in its history with the capacity to do serious damage to the planet, and another could come this century. The Australian, Magazine, 10/17/2009, “'Roid rage - SCIENCE WATCH” It may sound like the plot of a bad science-fiction movie from the 1990s (think Deep Impact or Armageddon) but there is a one in ten chance Earth will be struck by a dangerous object from space sometime this century, according to a report just published in New Scientist. Advances in telescope technology over the past decade have enabled astronomers to identify at least 20,000 asteroids and comets that pose a risk to our planet. So real is the threat that, for the first time, the US air force recently assembled a team of scientists, military and emergency-response officials to assess the nation's ability to cope should an asteroid or comet strike. Because they're travelling at such great speed (something like 20km a second) asteroids don't have to be huge to do a lot of damage. In 1908 an asteroid estimated to have been 60m across - a mere rock by cosmic standards - exploded as it hit the lower atmosphere over Tunguska, Siberia, flattening hundreds of square kilometres of forest. And a year ago an asteroid the size of a car broke up over Sudan; a telescope observer spotted it just 20 hours before impact. If an asteroid or comet does strike, let's hope it hits land rather than sea: a two-km-wide object hitting an ocean would trigger tsunamis that would turn many of the world's coastal cities into mudflats. Earth has suffered at least 130 major impacts that scientists know of, and at least a handful have been ELEs - "extinction level events", wiping out more than 80 per cent of life on the planet. The greatest threat are from "rogue" comets dislodged by gravity from their orbits in the Oort Cloud, on the outer edge of our solar system. If one of these icy stumps were to hurtle towards Earth millions of us could be at risk. So if a killer asteroid was on a collision course with Earth, what could be done about it? Detonating a nuclear device on it, as in Armageddon, isn't a realistic option. To deflect an asteroid sufficiently from its trajectory, force would need to be applied years in advance, reports New Scientist. The best we can hope for is an early warning system that would allow us to predict the time and location of the impact. Then what? Run like hell. 1AC [3/7]An asteroid impact would darken the sky for months, cause acid rain and eventually end all life on Earth. John Kunich, Lieutenant Colonel in the US Air Force, “Staff Judge Advocate 50th Space Wing, Falcon Air Force Base, 1997, “Planetary Defense: The Legality of Global Survival,” 41 Air Force L. Rev. 119, lexis) Horrific as such phenomena are, they are dwarfed by a potentially far greater hazard. The impact of a sufficiently large object on land may cause a blackout scenario in which dust raised by the impact prevents sunlight from reaching the surface [of the Earth] for several months. Lack of sunlight terminates photosynthesis, prevents creatures from foraging for food, and leads to precipitous temperature declines... Obviously even much [*125] smaller impacts would have the potential to seriously damage human civilization, perhaps irreparably. In addition to the dust raised from the initial impact, smoke and particulate matter from vast, uncontrollable fires may greatly exacerbate this blackout effect. A large space object generates tremendous heat, regardless of whether it is destroyed in the atmosphere or physically hits the surface of the Earth. These fires can reach far beyond the impact area, due to atmospheric phenomena associated with the entry of a huge, ultra-high speed object. A huge mass of dust, smoke, and soot lofted into Earth's atmosphere could lead to effects similar to those associated with the "nuclear winter" theory, but on a much larger, much more deadly scale. Such effects are now widely believed to have been a major factor contributing to the mass extinction spasms. These cataclysmic effects may have been worsened still further by other collateral phenomena associated with the impact. For example, acid rain, pronounced depletion of the ozone layer, and massive injections of water vapor into the upper atmosphere may be indirect effects, each with its own negative consequences for life on Earth. 1AC [4/7]Even though an asteroid impact is very unlikely, we should still act. Even though it is improbable over our lifetimes, the impact is guaranteed if we wait long enough. Inaction is not worth the gamble. John Kunich, Lieutenant Colonel in the US Air Force, “Staff Judge Advocate 50th Space Wing, Falcon Air Force Base, 1997, “Planetary Defense: The Legality of Global Survival,” 41 Air Force L. Rev. 119, lexis) It is true that destructive impacts of gigantic asteroids and comets are extremely rare and infrequent when compared with most other dangers humans face, with the intervals between even the smallest of such events amounting to many human generations... No one alive today, therefore, has ever witnessed such an event, and indeed there are no credible historical records of human casualties from impacts in the past millennium. Consequently, it is easy to dismiss the hazard as negligible or to ridicule those who suggest that it be treated seriously. On the other hand, as has been explained, when such impacts do occur, they are capable of producing destruction and casualties on a scale that far exceeds any other natural disasters; the results of impact by an object the size of a small mountain exceed the imagined holocaust of a full-scale nuclear war... Even the worst storms or floods or earthquakes inflict only local damage, while a large enough impact could have global consequences and place all of society at risk... Impacts are, at once, the least likely but the most dreadful of known natural catastrophes. What is the most prudent course of action when one is confronted with an extremely rare yet enormously destructive risk? Some may be tempted to do nothing, in essence gambling on the odds. But because the consequences of guessing wrong may be so severe as to mean the end of virtually all life on planet Earth, the wiser course of action would be to take reasonable steps to confront the problem. Ultimately, rare though these space strikes are, there is no doubt that they will happen again, sooner or later. To do nothing is to abdicate our duty to defend the United States, and indeed the entire world, and place our very survival in the uncertain hands of the false god of probabilities. Thus, the mission of planetary defense might be considered by the United States at some point in time, perhaps with a role played by the military, including the United States Air Force. 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