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Article: Constellation Design Was Flawed



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Article: Constellation Design Was Flawed


Harry Spencer: NASA moon plan was an illusion, wrapped in denial. February 11th, 2010.
NASA's Constellation programme, which was going to fly manned capsules to the International Space Station in (maybe) 2015, to the moon in (maybe) 2020, and to Mars someday, is dead. Some people are mourning it. I'm not.

Is manned space exploration important? Yes – not least because it simply works much better than sending robots. When you look past the rhetoric and superstitions and compare the results, today's robots (and tomorrow's too) are pitifully limited, painfully slow, and not really all that cheap. (Case in point – NASA recently gave up trying to free the Mars rover Spirit from a sand pit it had been stuck in for nine months. But when the Apollo 15 crew's lunar rover got bogged down in loose soil, the astronauts got off, picked it up, moved it, got back on, and drove away – all in maybe two minutes. Robots do fine when everything goes as planned, but that's rarely true on complex, poorly-known planetary surfaces.)

Exploring with robots looks cheaper only because we set our expectations so much lower. Bolder goals need humans on the scene. Nevertheless, I'm not shedding tears for Constellation. Why not? Because it wasn't going to get us there.

First, it probably wasn't going to work. Even so early in its life, the programme was already deep into a death spiral of "solving" every problem by reducing expectations of what the system would do. Actually reaching the moon would probably have required a major redesign, which wasn't going to be funded.

Second, even if all went as planned, there was a money problem. As the Augustine Committee noted, Constellation was already underfunded, and couldn't ever get beyond Earth orbit without a big budget increase. Which didn't seem too likely.

Finally, and most important, even if Constellation was funded and worked ... so what? The programme was far too tightly focused on repeating Apollo, which was pointless: we already did Apollo! Early ideas of quickly establishing a permanent lunar base had already been forgotten. Constellation was going to deliver exactly what Apollo did: expensive, brief, infrequent visits to the moon. That was all it was good for.

Sure, there were hopes that Constellation's systems could later be adapted to support more ambitious goals. But Apollo had those hopes too. It didn't work in 1970, and it wasn't going to work in 2020.

The demise of Constellation is not the death of a dream. It's just the end of an illusion.

The proposed replacements are a mixed bag, with reason for optimism but some reason for concern.

More R&D is good. Space flight technology has stagnated badly in recent decades; for example, we badly need a robust, fully-reusable, low-maintenance heat shield system for atmospheric re-entry,

and promising concepts from 50 years ago are still awaiting flight tests. My one concern is that when money gets tight, it's easy to cut R&D funding that isn't tied to a specific project – look at what's happened to NASA's aviation research.

Switching to commercial space transportation, for both cargo and crews, is long overdue. For over 20 years, NASA has been legally required to use commercial space transportation whenever possible – and has used every possible excuse not to. It's high time to end this.

Opponents' main argument is that NASA will have trouble assuring astronaut safety if it uses commercial launch services. Hogwash. To be blunt, NASA has no financial incentive to build safe spaceships – the shuttle, on average, has killed its entire crew about every 50 to 60 flights, and yet it has kept going. (Indeed, after the Challenger disaster, NASA's shuttle budget increased; compare that to what happened after Boeing's first two launches of its Delta III rocket failed – no one bought more launches and the rocket programme folded.) Spaceship builders who have a direct financial interest in safety should do better, not worse.

At the very least, safety assessments should be done by an independent authority, with no vested interest in the answer. When NASA was considering launching its Orion capsule on Atlas or Delta rockets five years ago, its safety standards were very strict indeed – and the commercial rockets ended up losing out. But when NASA started applying those standards to its own rocket when development of the Ares rocket and Orion crew capsule got well underway a few years later, suddenly the standards were in need of revision, and the revised ones were much less demanding. It's time to give commercial space flight a fair trial.

The one aspect of the announcement that is worrisome is the vagueness of the long-term plans. "We'll do neat stuff someday" is a recipe for going back into the holding pattern NASA has been stuck in for many years, driving endlessly around the parking lot without ever getting out onto the road. Even if the transportation is going to come from commercial providers and the details will depend on them, they need some rough idea of what NASA wants to do and when. A clearer explanation of NASA's new exploration goals is urgently needed.


NASA Tradeoff Disadvantage

NASA Tradeoff Disadvantage


Mars Colonization Affirmative 2

Explanation 3

Glossary 4

1AC [1/6] 5

1AC [2/6] 6

1AC [3/6] 7

1AC [4/6] 8

1AC [5/6] 9

1AC [6/6] 10

Overview Effect Advantage 11

Inherency Extensions 12

Extinction Inevitable – Human Weapons 13

Extinction Inevitable – Asteroids 14

Extinction Inevitable – Overpopulation 16

Answers To: War in Space 17

Overview Effect Extensions 18

Overview Effect Extensions 19

Solvency Extensions 20

Answers To: Can’t Establish a Colony Fast Enough 21

Answer To: Health Risks in Space 22

Answers To: Colonization Technologically Impossible 23

Answers To: Colonization Technologically Impossible 24

Answers To: Privatization DA / CP 25

Article: Why Spaceflight Has Ended 26

Article: Why We Must Return to Space 28

Article: Why a Mars Colony Would Be Possible 31

Mars Colonization Negative 38

Glossary 39

Answers To: Inherency 40

Answers To: Colonization Advantage 41

Answers To: Colonization Advantage 42

Answers To: Colonization Advantage 43

Answers To: Colonization Advantage 44

Answers To: Humans Will Cause Extinction 45

Answers To: Overpopulation Will Cause Extinction 46

Answers To: Asteroids Will Cause Extinction 47

Answers To: Overview Effect Advantage 48

Answers To: Overview Effect Advantage 49

Answers To: Solvency 50

Answers To: Solvency 51

Answers To: Solvency 52

Answers To: Solvency 53

Article: Why We Should Not Seek to Colonize Mars 54

Article: Space Travel Has Many Health Risks 57

SETI Affirmative 59

Explanation 60

Glossary 61

1AC [1/6] 62

1AC [2/6] 63

1AC [3/6] 64

1AC [4/6] 65

1AC [5/6] 66

1AC [6/6] 67

Extraterrestrial Perspective Advantage 68

Extraterrestrial Perspective Advantage 69

Space Debris Advantage 70

Space Debris Advantage 71

Space Debris Advantage 72

Inherency Extensions 73

Alien Contact Extensions – Aliens Exist 74

Alien Contact Extensions – Alien Contact Good 75

Extraterrestrial Perspective Extensions 76

Space Debris Extensions – ATA Helps Tracking 77

Space Debris Extensions – Plan Mitigates Debris 78

Space Debris Extensions – Debris Impacts 79

Solvency Extensions – ATA Leads to Contact 80

Solvency Extensions – Radio Searching Best 81

Solvency Extensions – Can Identify Alien Signals 82

Answers To: Privatization DA / CP 83

Article: The Allen Telescope Array 84

Article: Overview of SETI’s History 86

SETI Negative 91

Glossary 92

Answers to: Inherency 93

Answers to: Inherency 94

Answers to: Alien Contact Advantage 95

Answers To: Alien Contact Advantage 96

Answers To: Alien Contact Advantage 97

Answers To: Alien Contact Advantage 98

Answers To: Extraterrestrial Perspective Advantage 99

Answers To: Extraterrestrial Perspective Advantage 100

Answers To: Space Debris Advantage 101

Answers To: Space Debris Advantage 102

Answers To: Space Debris Advantage 103

Answers To: Solvency 104

Answers To: Solvency 105

Answers To: Solvency 106

Answers To: Solvency 107

Article: Aliens Don’t Exist 108

Article: Problems With Alein Communication 110

Asteroids Affirmative 113

Explanation 114

Glossary 115

1AC [1/7] 116

1AC [2/7] 117

1AC [3/7] 118

1AC [4/7] 119

1AC [5/7] 120

1AC [6/7] 121

1AC [7/7] 122

Small Asteroid Advantage 123

Mining Advantage 124

Mining Advantage 125

Inherency Extensions 126

Inherency Extensions 127

Impact Extensions – Prefer High Magnitude Impacts 128

Impact Extensions – Asteroid Killed the Dinosaurs 129

AT: Focus on Earth’s Problems 130

AT: Focus on Earth’s Problems 131

AT: No Risk of Small Asteroid Sparking War 132

AT: Small Impacts Irrelevant 133

Mining Advantage Extenions 134

AT: Not Technologically Feasible 135

AT: Not Technologically Feasible 136

AT: Asteroid Mining Not Profitable 137

AT: Asteroid Mining Not Profitable 138

Solvency – Deflection Successful 139

Solvency – Deflection Successful 140

Solvency – Space Telescopes Best 141

AT: Deflection Fails – International Cooperation 142

AT: Deflection Fails – International Cooperation 143

AT: Nuclear Deflection 144

AT: Nuclear Deflection 145

AT: Privatization DA / CP 146

Answers To: NASA Tradeoff Disadvantage 147

Article: NASA Tasked With Cataloguing Asteroids 148

Article: Risks From Smaller Asteroids 150

Asteroids Negative 153

Glossary 154

Answers To: Inherency 155

Answers To: Inherency 156

Answers To: Asteroid Impact Advantage 157

Answers To: Asteroid Impact Advantage 158

Answers To: Asteroid Impact Advantage 159

Answers To: Asteroid Impact Advantage 160

Answers To: Asteroid Impact Advantage 162

Extension: Prefer High Probability Impacts 163

AT: Small Asteroid Advantage 164

Answers To: Asteroid Mining Advantage 165

Answers To: Asteroid Mining Advantage 166

Answers To: Asteroid Mining Advantage 168

Answers To: Asteroid Mining Advantage 169

Answers To: Solvency 170

Answers To: Solvency 171

Answers To: Solvency 172

Answers To: Solvency 173

Article: Asteroids Not A Threat 174

Article: What Caused The Extinction of The Dinosaurs? 176

Constellation Affirmative 179

Explanation 180

Glossary 181

1AC [1/7] 183

1AC [2/7] 184

1AC [3/7] 185

1AC [4/7] 186

1AC [5/7] 187

1AC [6/7] 188

1AC [7/7] 189

Space Leadership Advantage 190

Space Leadership Advantage 191

Space Leadership Advantage 192

Space Leadership Advantage 193

Space Leadership Advantage 194

Inherency Extensions 195

Industrial Base – Plan Reinvigorates Industrial Base 196

Industrial Base – Plan Reinvigorates Industrial Base 197

Impact – Air Power 198

AT: Obama Plan Creates Jobs 199

AT: Brain drain 200

AT: Space won’t inspire 201

AT: Alternate Causalities 202

AT: Alternate Causalities 203

Constellation Key to Space Exploration 204

Space Exploration Impacts 205

Space Leadership on the Brink 206

Space Leadership on the Brink 207

Constellation Key to Space Leadership 208

Space Leadership Key to Hegemony 209

Space Leadership Key to Hegemony 210

AT: Constellation Design Was Flawed 211

AT: Constellation Design Was Flawed 212

Constellation Effective / AT: Smaller Rockets Solve 213

Constellation Effective / AT: Smaller Rockets Solve 214

AT: Constellation Trade off With Deep Space 215

Answers To: Privatization DA / CP 216

Article: Constellation and the Space Program’s Legacy 217

Article: America’s Need for Space Leadership 220

Constellation Negative 223

Glossary 224

Answers To: Inherency 225

Answers To: Space Leadership Advantage 226

Answers To: Space Leadership Advantage 227

Answers To: Space Leadership Advantage 228

Answers To: Space Leadership Advantage 229

Answers To: Space Leadership Advantage 230

Answers To: Space Leadership Advantage 231

Answers To: Industrial Base Advantage 232

Answers To: Industrial Base Advantage 233

Answers To: Industrial Base Advantage 234

Answers To: Industrial Base Advantage 236

Answers To: Industrial Base Advantage 237

Answers To: Industrial Base Advantage 238

Answers To: Space Exploration Advantage 239

Answers To: Space Exploration Advantage 240

Answers To: Solvency 241

Answers To: Solvency 242

Answers To: Solvency 244

Answers To: Solvency 245

Article: Is the Apollo Approach Best? 246

Article: Constellation Design Was Flawed 249

NASA Tradeoff Disadvantage 252

Explanation 253

Glossary 254

Budget Tradeoff 1NC [1/2] 255

Budget Tradeoff 1NC [2/2] 256

Overview 258

Uniqueness – NASA Focusing on Earth Science 259

Uniqueness – NASA Focusing on Earth Science 260

Link - Space Exploration Trades off With Earth Science 261

Link - Space Exploration Trades off With Earth Science 262

Specific Link – Colonization Affirmative 263

Specific Link – Constellation Affirmative 265

Specific Link – SETI Affirmative 266

Specific Link – Asteroids Affirmative 267

Impact – Earth Science Solves Global Warming 268

Impacts – Earth Science Solves Global Warming 269

Impact – Warming Causes Extinction 270

Impact – Warming is Man Made 271

Impact – Warming Not Inevitable 272

Article: The State of NASA’s Budget 273

Article: Space Science, Earth Science and Politics 275

NASA Tradeoff DA Affirmative 277

Glossary 278

Uniqueness – NASA overbudget now 279

Uniqueness – Earth Science Not Funded Now 281

Uniqueness – Earth Science Not Funded Now 283

No Link – Tradeoff Happens Between Agencies 284

No Link – Budget Flexibility now 285

Link Turn – Spending Increases the Budget 286

No Impact – NASA Program Unnecessary 287

No Impact – Warming Not Caused by Humans 289

No Impact – Warming Inevitable 291

Privatization Disadvantage 294

Explanation 295

Glossary 296

Privatization DA 1NC [1/2] 297

Privatization DA 1NC [2/2] 298

Overview 299

Uniqueness – Privatization Occuring Now 300

Uniqueness – Privatization Occuring Now 302

Links – NASA Crowds Out Private Sector 304

Links – NASA Crowds Out Private Sector 305

Links – NASA Crowds Out Private Sector 306

Impact – Economic Growth 307

Impact – Leadership 308

Impact – Turns Case 310

Impact – Turns Case 311

Article: NASA and the Privatization of Space 312

Privatization DA Affirmative 316

Glossary 317

Uniqueness – Private Sector Doesn’t Exist 318

Uniqueness – Private Sector Doesn’t Exist 319

Link Turn – Government Action Spurs the Private Sector 320

Link Turn – Government Action Spurs the Private Sector 321

No Impact – Privatization Won’t Achieve Goals 322

No Impact – Privatization Won’t Work 323

Impact Turn – Leadership 324

Impact Turn – Leadership 325

Impact Turn – Space Debris 326

Space Weaponization DA 329

Explanation 330

Glossary 331

Space Weaponization 1NC Shell [1/3] 332

Space Weaponization 1NC Shell [2/3] 333

Space Weaponization 1NC Shell [3/3] 334

Overview 335

Uniqueness – No Space Weaponization Now 336

Uniqueness – No Space Weaponization Now 337

AT: Space Weaponization Inevitable 338

Link – Exploration Causes Weaponization 339

Link – Exploration Causes Weaponization 340

Link – Exploration Causes Weaponization 342

Specific Link – Colonization 343

Specific Link – Constellation 344

Impact – Plan Causes Weaponization 345

Impact – Weaponization Causes War 346

Impact – Weaponziation Causes War 347

Impact – Weaponization Kills Relations 348

Impact – Turns the Case 349

Article: Obama’s Objectives in Space 350

Space Weaponization DA Affirmative 354

Glossary 355

Uniqueness – Weaponization Now 356

Uniqueness – Weaponization Now 357

Uniqueness – Weaponization Inevitable 358

Link Turn – Plan Trades off with Weaponization 359

Impact Turn – Space Weaponization Solves Conflict 361

Impact Turn – Space Weaponization Solves Conflict 362

Impact Turn – Weaponziation Solves India-Pakistan War 363

AT: Space Weapons Cause Miscalculation 364

AT: Weaponization Causes Space Arms Race 365

AT: Weaponization is Infeasible 366

Privatization Counterplan 368

Explanation 369

Glossary 370

Privatization Counterplan 1NC [1/1] 371

Solvency – General 373

Solvency - General 374

Solvency – Colonization Affirmative 375

Solvency – Colonization Affiramtive 377

Solvency – Constellation Affirmative 378

Solvency – Constellation Affirmative 379

Solvency – Asteroids Affirmative 380

Solvency – Asteroids Affirmative 381

Solvency – SETI Affirmative 383

Solvency – SETI Affirmative 384

AT: Counterplan Links to Spending 385

AT: Counterplan Links to Spending 386

AT: Counterplan Links to Spending 387

AT: Permutation 388

AT: Permutation 389

AT: Permutation 390

Article: NASA Should Step Back 391

Privatization Counterplan Affirmative 397

Glossary 398

398


Permutation 399

Privatization Fails – No demand 401

Privatization Fails – International Law 402

Privatization Fails – Too Long For Profit 403

Privatization Fails – Safety 404

Privatization Fails – Tax Incentives Fail 405

Privatization Fails – High Start Up Cost 406

Frontier Critique 409

Explanation 410

Glossary 411

Frontier Critique 1NC [1/3] 412

Frontier Critique 1NC [2/3] 413

Frontier Critique 1NC [3/3] 414

Link – Generic 415

Link – Asteroid Affirmative 416

Link – Constellation Affirmative 417

Link – Constellation Affirmative 418

Link – SETI Affirmative 419

Link – Mars Colonization Affirmative 420

Link – Mars Colonization Affirmative 421

Impact – Conflict 422

Impact – Turns Case 423

Alternative – Reconsider Space 424

AT: Permutation 425

Article: Space and Manifest Destiny 426

Frontier Critique Affirmative 431

Glossary 432

No Link – Space Isn’t Guided By the Frontier Metaphor 433

Link Turn – Frontier Metaphor Good 434

Link Turn – Frontier Metaphor Good 436

Alternative is Harmful 437

Alternative Fails 438

Permutation 439

Permutation 440

Topicality 442

Exploration Means Traveling to Space 1NC [1/1] 443

Space Exploration is Human Exploration 1NC [1/1] 444

Space Exploration is not Planets 1NC [1/1] 445

United States federal government 446

Substantially 447

Space Exploration 448

Space Exploration 449

Space Exploration 450

Development 451

Development 452

Beyond 453

Earth 454

Mesosphere 455






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