Ext: Economy --> Pandemics

Ext: Economy --> Pandemics

In October 2008, the world finally realised that the credit crisis, which arose from the United States sub-prime housing collapse, was the harbinger of the most significant international recession since the 1930s. Although the economic and political consequences of the recession are being studied in exhaustive detail, the potential health consequences have received much less attention. The effects on health are likely to be manifold. At a global level, health care, already precarious in many developing countries, is likely to decline further as aid dries up and government expenditure falls, with millions more forced into poverty and malnutrition, particularly women and children. This is likely to be further exacerbated by the collapse of business and banking institutions as world trade declines, on a background of raised food and fuel costs The consequences have been seen before. After the Asian crisis in 1997, women and girls generally suffered disproportionately as the industries that employed them were the first to be hit, and as spending on women’s health care, including antenatal and maternity services, was cut. Excess deaths can also be expected, particularly in developing countries, as poorer patients defer medical treatment and health services deteriorate, with the greatest impact likely to be on the most vulnerable patients including children, the disabled, and the elderly. After the Mexican financial crisis in 1995, over 27,000 excess deaths were estimated to have occurred in these vulnerable groups. In more developed countries, mortality rates may actually fall as a result of reduced alcohol and tobacco use, and less road travel. Disease control is also expected to suffer during the current crisis. There is growing concern that funding for treatment, research, and global control of malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS is being cut back, and that other currently underfunded programs for serious infectious diseases would not get the investment they require. Resources for disease surveillance and laboratory capacity are also often cut back at these times, which may seriously impact on the timely identification and mitigation of emerging epidemics and pandemics

Unchecked disease causes human extinction

South China Morning Post, 1-4-1996 (Dr. Ben Abraham= “called "one of the 100 greatest minds in history" by super-IQ society Mensa” and owner of “Toronto-based biotechnology company, Structured Biologicals Inc” according to same article)

Despite the importance of the discovery of the "facilitating" cell, it is not what Dr Ben-Abraham wants to talk about. There is a much more pressing medical crisis at hand - one he believes the world must be alerted to: the possibility of a virus deadlier than HIV. If this makes Dr Ben-Abraham sound like a prophet of doom, then he makes no apology for it. AIDS, the Ebola outbreak which killed more than 100 people in Africa last year, the flu epidemic that has now affected 200,000 in the former Soviet Union - they are all, according to Dr Ben-Abraham, the "tip of the iceberg". Two decades of intensive study and research in the field of virology have convinced him of one thing: in place of natural and man-made disasters or nuclear warfare, humanity could face extinction because of a single virus, deadlier than HIV. "An airborne virus is a lively, complex and dangerous organism," he said. "It can come from a rare animal or from anywhere and can mutate constantly. If there is no cure, it affects one person and then there is a chain reaction and it is unstoppable. It is a tragedy waiting to happen." That may sound like a far-fetched plot for a Hollywood film, but Dr Ben -Abraham said history has already proven his theory. Fifteen years ago, few could have predicted the impact of AIDS on the world. Ebola has had sporadic outbreaks over the past 20 years and the only way the deadly virus - which turns internal organs into liquid - could be contained was because it was killed before it had a chance to spread. Imagine, he says, if it was closer to home: an outbreak of that scale in London, New York or Hong Kong. It could happen anytime in the next 20 years - theoretically, it could happen tomorrow. The shock of the AIDS epidemic has prompted virus experts to admit "that something new is indeed happening and that the threat of a deadly viral outbreak is imminent", said Joshua Lederberg of the Rockefeller University in New York, at a recent conference. He added that the problem was "very serious and is getting worse". Dr Ben-Abraham said: "Nature isn't benign. The survival of the human species is not a preordained evolutionary programme. Abundant sources of genetic variation exist for viruses to learn how to mutate and evade the immune system." He cites the 1968 Hong Kong flu outbreak as an example of how viruses have outsmarted human intelligence. And as new "mega-cities" are being developed in the Third World and rainforests are destroyed, disease-carrying animals and insects are forced into areas of human habitation. "This raises the very real possibility that lethal, mysterious viruses would, for the first time, infect humanity at a large scale and imperil the survival of the human race," he said.

Impact: Asian Instability

SKFTA checks Asian instability – North Korea AND China

U.S.-Korea FTA Business Coalition, ’10 (The U.S.-Korea Security Alliance Stronger than Ever, http://www.uskoreafta.org/sites/default/files/US-Korea-Security-Alliance.pdf, 7/26/11)

The U.S.-Korea FTA will not only bolster trade and investment between the United States and Korea, but it will also reinforce our countries’ important political and security partnership. The U.S.-Korea security alliance has contributed to peace and stability in Northeast Asia for over sixty years, and Korea today is one of our strongest partners in advancing regional and global security. The Korean people share our commitment to democracy and to ensuring a peaceful and prosperous Asia. By expanding trade and investment, and deepening the links between our two countries, the U.S.-Korea FTA will also strengthen the important political and security partnership between the United States and Korea. The United States and Korea have maintained a strong and active military alliance since the cease-fire armistice for the Korean War was signed in 1953. U.S. and Korean forces have stood together in Vietnam, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Currently, over 27,000 members of the U.S. military serve side by side with the Korean armed forces to protect peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula. As illustrated by the torpedo attack on a South Korean naval vessel that ended the lives of 46 South Korean sailors in March 2010, North Korea continues to pose a direct military threat to the South, even as it seeks a nuclear weapons capability that threatens regional and global security. Continued North Korean belligerencies 60 years after it invaded the South is a reminder of what we have at stake on the Korean Peninsula. Together with recent agreements on base relocation and the strategic realignment of U.S. forces in Korea, the U.S.-Korea FTA will be another step forward in updating America’s critical relationship with Korea to reflect changing dynamics and emerging trends in Asia. It will reaffirm to the Korean people that the United States is a strong and reliable partner. The U.S.-Korea FTA is an important display of unity between our two countries as we work together to successfully address the security challenges of the nuclear and military threat posed by North Korea, manage regional stability, and guarantee a prosperous and secure Asia. The U.S.-Korea FTA will also be a strong signal of the U.S. commitment to maintain its leadership in East Asia at a time when China’s rise has raised concerns among our friends and partners in the region. For strategic as well as economic reasons, it is profoundly in the U.S. interest to remain a leader in the Asia-Pacific region. America must be part of the action as Asian economies continue to grow and join together through bilateral and regional trade agreements.

SKFTA key to Asian stability – Korean Peninsula vital to stability

Webb, 7/21/11 (Jim, “Senator Webb: South Korea “focal point” for stability in Asia”, http://webb.senate.gov/newsroom/pressreleases/07-21-2011-02.cfm, 7/26/11)

Senator Jim Webb, chair of the Foreign Relations East Asian and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee, today stressed the “vital importance” of the U.S.-South Korea relationship during the confirmation hearing of Ambassador Sung Y. Kim to be U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea. “Northeast Asia is the only area in the world where the interests of China, Russia, Japan, and the United States directly intersect,” said Senator Webb. “In the middle of this is a divided Korean Peninsula. If you do not have stability in Northeast Asia, you cannot have stability anywhere else in Asia. That underlines the vital importance of the relationship that the United States shares with South Korea.” Senator Webb renewed his call for Congress to approve the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement: “Without passage, the United States risks falling behind our trade competitors, losing economic benefits, and weakening an important strategic alliance.” “Our joint approach [with South Korea] is essential to maintaining stability on the Korean peninsula and ensuring that North Korea is not allowed to act with impunity,” said Senator Webb. “This approach is also important for demonstrating to China—as North Korea’s closest diplomatic ally and largest trading partner—that it should exert its influence to bring about more responsible behavior from North Korea and take positive action to bring about North Korea’s denuclearization.” Senator Webb has enjoyed a continuous personal involvement in Asian and Pacific affairs that long predates his time in the Senate. In addition to his visits as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he has worked and traveled throughout the region for more than four decades—as a Marine Corps officer, a defense planner, a journalist, a novelist, a senior official in the Department of Defense, and as a business consultant.

Asian instability goes nuclear.

Jonathan S. Landay, National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, -2K [“Top Administration Officials Warn Stakes for U.S. Are High in Asian Conflicts”, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, March 10, p. Lexis]

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan, North Korea and South Korea, or India and Pakistan are spoiling to fight. But even a minor miscalculation by any of them could destabilize Asia, jolt the global economy and even start a nuclear war. India, Pakistan and China all have nuclear weapons, and North Korea may have a few, too. Asia lacks the kinds of organizations, negotiations and diplomatic relationships that helped keep an uneasy peace for five decades in Cold War Europe. “Nowhere else on Earth are the stakes as high and relationships so fragile,” said Bates Gill, director of northeast Asian policy studies at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. “We see the convergence of great power interest overlaid with lingering confrontations with no institutionalized security mechanism in place. There are elements for potential disaster.” In an effort to cool the region’s tempers, President Clinton, Defense Secretary William S. Cohen and National Security Adviser Samuel R. Berger all will hopscotch Asia’s capitals this month. For America, the stakes could hardly be higher. There are 100,000 U.S. troops in Asia committed to defending Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, and the United States would instantly become embroiled if Beijing moved against Taiwan or North Korea attacked South Korea. While Washington has no defense commitments to either India or Pakistan, a conflict between the two could end the global taboo against using nuclear weapons and demolish the already shaky international nonproliferation regime. In addition, globalization has made a stable Asia _ with its massive markets, cheap labor, exports and resources _ indispensable to the U.S. economy. Numerous U.S. firms and millions of American jobs depend on trade with Asia that totaled $600 billion last year, according to the Commerce Department.

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