Solar Storms Affirmative – 4 Week Lab [1/3]
Impact – African Instability
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- Impact – China-India War
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Impact – African InstabilityClimate change causes African instability—exacerbates underlying conditions CNA, a non-profit research organization that operates the Center for Naval Analyses and the Institute for Public Research. 2007 “National Security and the threat of Climate Change” http://securityandclimate.cna.org/ Africa is increasingly crucial in the ongoing battle against civil strife, genocide, and terrorism. Numerous African countries and regions already suffer from varying degrees of famine and civil strife. Darfur, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Angola, Nigeria, Cameroon, Western Sahara—all have been hit hard by tensions that can be traced in part to environmental causes. Struggles that appear to be tribal, sectarian, or nationalist in nature are often triggered by reduced water supplies or reductions in agricul- tural productivity. The challenges Africa will face as a result of climate change may be massive, and could present serious threats to even the most stable of governments. Many African nations can best be described as failed states, and many African regions are largely ungoverned by civil institutions. When the conditions for failed states increase—as they most likely will over the coming decades—the chaos that results can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide, and the growth of terrorism. WAR IN AFRICA WILL RESULT IN INTERVENTION AND NUCLEAR WAR DEUTSCH 2002 (Jeffrey, Political Risk Consultant and Ph.D in Economics, The Rabid Tiger Newsletter, Vol 2, No 9, Nov 18, http://list.webengr.com/pipermail/picoipo/2002-November/000208.html) The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear war is most likely to start in Africa. Civil wars in the Congo (the country formerly known as Zaire), Rwanda, Somalia and Sierra Leone, and domestic instability in Zimbabwe, Sudan and other countries, as well as occasional brushfire and other wars (thanks in part to "national" borders that cut across tribal ones) turn into a really nasty stew. We've got all too many rabid tigers and potential rabid tigers, who are willing to push the button rather than risk being seen as wishy-washy in the face of a mortal threat and overthrown. Geopolitically speaking, Africa is open range. Very few countries in Africa are beholden to any particular power. South Africa is a major exception in this respect - not to mention in that she also probably already has the Bomb. Thus, outside powers can more easily find client states there than, say, in Europe where the political lines have long since been drawn, or Asia where many of the countries (China, India, Japan) are powers unto themselves and don't need any "help," thank you. Thus, an African war can attract outside involvement very quickly. Of course, a proxy war alone may not induce the Great Powers to fight each other. But an African nuclear strike can ignite a much broader conflagration, if the other powers are interested in a fight. Certainly, such a strike would in the first place have been facilitated by outside help - financial, scientific, engineering, etc. Africa is an ocean of troubled waters, and some people love to go fishing. Impact – China-India WarWarming melts Tibetan glaciers, causing China and India to compete for water and raise tensions Alan Dupont, Michael Hintze Professor of International Security and Director of the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney, Survival, Volume http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title%7Econtent=t713659919%7Edb=all%7Etab=issueslist%7Ebranches=50 - v5050, Issue 3 June 2008 , pages 29 – 54, The Strategic Implications of Climate Change, 33 The melting of the Tibetan glaciers illustrates the nexus between climate change, water scarcity and geopolitics. By China’s own estimates, the glaciers on the Tibetan plateau are melting at a rate of about 7% a year.17 Hundreds of millions of people are dependent on the flow of glacier-fed rivers for most of their food and water needs, as well as transportation and energy from hydroelectricity. Initially, flows may increase, as glacial run-off accelerates, causing widespread flooding. Within a few decades, however, water levels are expected to decline, jeopardizing food production and causing widespread water and power shortages with potentially adverse consequences for India, Bangladesh, China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. With less fresh water available to slake the thirst of its booming population and economy, China has redoubled its efforts to redirect the southward flow of rivers from the water-rich Tibetan plateau to water-deficient areas of northern China. The problem is that rivers like the Mekong, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Salween flow through multiple states. China’s efforts to rectify its own emerging water and energy problems indirectly threaten the livelihoods of many millions of people in downstream, riparian states. Chinese dams on the Mekong are already reducing flows to Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. India is concerned about Chinese plans to channel the waters of the Brahmaputra to the over-used and increasingly desiccated Yellow River. Should China go ahead with this ambitious plan, tensions with India and Bangladesh are likely to rise, as existing political and territorial disputes are aggravated by concerns over water security. Impact – South China SeaRising Oceans result in Spratly conflict- territorial conflicts escalate Alan Dupont, Michael Hintze Professor of International Security and Director of the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney, Survival, Volume http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title%7Econtent=t713659919%7Edb=all%7Etab=issueslist%7Ebranches=50 - v5050, Issue 3 June 2008 , pages 29 – 54, The Strategic Implications of Climate Change, 35 In Asia, rising oceans could make more difficult the resolution of disputed sovereignty claims in the Spratly Islands, a group of low-lying atolls in the South China Sea which sit astride potentially rich deposits of oil and have already been the scene of military tensions between and among China, Vietnam and the Philippines. Some of these islands are already partially submerged and the highest (Southwest Cay) is only 4m above sea level.24 Beijing has challenged the island status of Okinotorishima, a small offshore islet claimed by Japan at the southernmost part of the archipelago that is uninhabited and slowly sinking, and is the basis for Japan’s claim to an extended EEZ. Under Article 121 of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention, islands classified as ‘rocks’ are not entitled to a 200 nautical mile EEZ, unless they are capable of sustaining human habitation and economic life. Japan has already attempted to increase the size and height of Okinotorishima by planting coral around the islet, while some of the claimants to the Spratlys have built large concrete structures grafted onto submerged, naturally occurring coral, which house small military garrisons.25 A conflict over the Spratly Islands goes nuclear and draws in the US Nikkei Weekly, 6-3-95, Developing Asian nations should be allowed a grace period to allow their economies to grow before being subjected to trade liberalization demands, says Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad Mahathir strongly opposes the use of weapons to settle international disputes. The prime minister hails the ASEAN Regional Forum as a means for civilized nations of achieving negotiated settlement of disputes. Many members of the forum, including Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Thailand, have problems with their neighbors, but they are trying to solve them through continued dialogue, he adds. Three scenarios Mahathir sees Asia developing in three possible ways in future. In his worst-case scenario, Asian countries would go to war against each other, possibly over disputes such as their conflicting claims on the Spratly Islands. China might then declare war on the U.S., leading to full-scale, even nuclear, war. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 0.93 Mb. Share with your friends:
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