Solar Storms Affirmative – 4 Week Lab [1/3]
DSCOVR = Better Detection Times
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- Current technology is unable to provide the timely notice of solar storms- A more real-time system is necessary to prevent substantial damage Cooper and Sovacool 11’
- Current systems don’t relay data back to grid operators in time- better forecasting is necessary Cooper and Sovacool 11’
DSCOVR = Better Detection TimesDSCOVER is the most adequate replacement for the ACE satellite, providing longer warning times then any alternatives Vastag 11’ [Brian Vastag is a science reporter at The Washington Post, M.S. in science and technology journalism, http://www.star.com.jo/main/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22975&catid=39:science&Itemid=128]JB But estimating the arrival time and damage potential of such storms is tricky business. The simulations that Hesse runs at Goddard provide only a rough estimate, bracketing the arrival time of a solar storm in a 12- to 14-hour window. More-precise alerts are sent to power companies just 20 to 30 minutes before a solar storm hits Earth. In May, 29 such alerts went out, triggered by a NASA satellite called the Advanced Composition Explorer, or ACE. But if ACE fails, the space weather warning system will be crippled, said Tom Bogdan, who heads the Space Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Bogdan wants Congress to fund other satellites to replace ACE before it runs out of fuel in 2021. One possible replacement, a satellite called DSCOVR, sits nearly finished in a hangar at Goddard, where it has languished since 2001. The vision of Al Gore, sidelined when congressional Republicans defunded its launch vehicle, DSCOVR would provide longer warning times for solar storms. Its fate is uncertain, although President Barack Obama is expected to ask for funds to launch the probe in his 2012 budget. Bogdan said the earliest it could get off the ground is 2014. Current technology is unable to provide the timely notice of solar storms- A more real-time system is necessary to prevent substantial damage Cooper and Sovacool 11’ [*Executive Christopher Cooper is the Smart Grid Fellow at the Institute for Energy & the Environment, Vermont Law School. Benjamin K. Sovacool is an Assistant Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, part of the National University of Singapore. (5/11, “Not Your Father’s Y2K: Preparing the North American Power Grid for the Perfect Solar Storm,” http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040619011000972)] PHS B. Improve solar storm forecasting- Highly reliable near-term forecasts of solar storms and earth-threatening CMEs would provide critical advanced warning to grid operators. Given even 15 minutes of notice, system operators can reduce generation in northern latitudes, spin up generating units in southern latitudes, offload threatened transformers and direct personnel to the most vulnerable system infrastructure.38 With adequate warning, independent system operators could reduce power transfers between adjacent systems and cancel planned maintenance work to reduce the direct costs and secondary impacts of major geomagnetic disturbances.39 Currently, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) can predict, with moderate confidence, the probability of a solar storm one to three days in advance. But the Center does not have the ability to forecast storms that could hit the earth in a matter of hours.40 Indeed, according to a recent National Research Council (NRC) assessment of national space weather prediction capacity, the United States has no satisfactory short-term forecast or warning capabilities.41 T he SWPC relies on data from NASA’s Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), a satellite launched in 1997 to monitor solar winds and space weather from the L1 liberation point (roughly the point 1.5 million kilometers from the earth) where the sun and the earth’s gravitational pulls are in equilibrium. Using data from ACE, SWPC modelers currently can provide about an hour’s warning with a high level of confidence.42 There is some concern, however, that ACE is nearing the end of its operational life.43 NASA headquarters has warned that, after 11 years, ACE’s detector heads are losing sensitivity and are vulnerable to electronic failure. Nevertheless, NASA has no plan in place to replace some of its functions.44 On Feb. 11, 2010, NASA did, however, launch the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which provides continuous data on some space weather with only a 15-minute delay. Scientists have developed a new data analysis technique that uses electron particle flux measurements from SDO sensors to predict the arrival times of charged particles from solar events. This advancement holds the possibility of forecasting in near real time, when solar storms are likely to harm critical infrastructure.45 NASA should be encouraged to pursue this option while developing longer-term plans for replacing and improving ACE’s functions. I n the short term, the NRC, SWPC, and NASA should be charged with developing a comprehensive capability for near-real-time forecasting of the most risky CMEs using existing satellite assets. The agencies also should prepare recommendations to Congress for funding additional assets capable of providing accurate real-time alerts of all major space weather events. Current systems don’t relay data back to grid operators in time- better forecasting is necessary Cooper and Sovacool 11’ [*Executive Christopher Cooper is the Smart Grid Fellow at the Institute for Energy & the Environment, Vermont Law School. Benjamin K. Sovacool is an Assistant Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, part of the National University of Singapore. (5/11, “Not Your Father’s Y2K: Preparing the North American Power Grid for the Perfect Solar Storm,” http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040619011000972)] PHS C. Upgrade solar storm early warning and alert systems-Following the March 1989 storm, Hydro-Quebec installed an active communications software package on system operator consoles that provides each of the Northeast Power Coordinating Council Coordinators with geomagnetic storm alerts as well as the status of all solar activity. When alerted of a geomagnetic storm of sufficient intensity, the software triggers visual and audible alarms. A main screen provides the system operator with all information currently known about the possible solar threat and a dialog box permits instantaneous communication among all reliability coordinators of any observed geomagnetic phenomenon.46 The effectiveness of SWPC alerts was tested during an October 2003 CME that threatened the northeastern U.S. power grid. The test revealed significant shortfalls in the system’s accuracy. Because the SWPC relies on ground-based magnetometer stations in Boulder, Colo., and Fredericksburg, Va. (both in midlatitudes), SWPC analysts must collect and average multiple magnetometer samples in order to predict the intensity of prospective geomagnetic events. During the October 2003 storm, this meant that SWPC’s estimates of the storm’s intensity lagged behind effects already being felt on the grid at higher latitudes. For example, monitors located along the affected grid measured induced currents that exceeded the levels forecast by SWPC 38 minutes later.47 North American utilities should install system operator consoles that communicate real-time, accurate information about space weather intensity and trajectory provided by the SWPC. The SWPC should coordinate with North American system operators to forecast storm intensity and trajectory based, in part, on measurements from an array of high-latitude magnetometers. NERC should also coordinate with the SWPC to test the effectiveness of this system at providing greater situational awareness under normal operating conditions. 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